2025 Oscar Predictions: BEST ACTRESS (June)
Can the 7th time be a charm?
You gotta hand it to Amy Adams. Since getting her first Oscar nomination for 2005’s Junebug, she kept gathering kudos and five more Oscar nods: supporting actress in Doubt (2008), supporting actress in The Fighter (2010), supporting actress in The Master (2012), supporting actress in Vice (2018), and her first and only Best Actress nomination (so far) for American Hustle (2013). Over 10 years since her first and only lead Oscar nomination, Adams is primed for a return in her wildest role yet in Nightbitch, a magical realism style story of a stay-at-home mom who sometimes transforms into a dog. A hugely risky premise; will it connect with audiences, with voters? With Marielle Heller behind the camera and test screenings that prompted Searchlight Pictures to bump it up from a Hulu debut to theatrical release, there’s clearly faith behind it and behind Adams.
Next we have Angelina Jolie in Maria, the upcoming entry in Pablo Larraín sad famous women in history trilogy that included Natalie Portman as Jackie Kennedy in Jackie and Kristen Stewart as Princess Diana in Spencer (both of whom earned Oscar nods). Jolie plays Maria Callas, arguably the world’s best known opera singer, during her final days in 1970s Paris. Already a competitive and Honorary Oscar winner (maybe the only in real previous winner contention), humanitarian and more, Jolie is sure to be a centerpiece this season and Maria is sure to debut at Venice in August and possibly pop over to Telluride immediately after. But, the film is still without U.S. distribution and will need to snag one soon to get a full court press as festival and awards season gets underway.
Cannes showed us two newcomers ready to make a big Oscar splash; Best Actress winner Karla Sofía Gascón in Jacques Audiard’s Netflix pickup Emilia Pérez (which also won the Jury Prize), and Mikey Madison, starring in Sean Baker’s Palme d’Or winner Anora, grabbed by NEON, marking their 5th Palme winner in a row. For Gascón it’s a bit trickier as she was awarded the prize with her three co-stars Zoe Saldaña, Selena Gomez and Adriana Paz. A rarity but not unprecedented; in 2006 the jury awarded six actresses from Volver the prize with previous Oscar winner Penélope Cruz turning it into a Best Actress Oscar nomination. No doubt Netflix will pull out all the stops for Emilia Pérez and Gascón, who by all accounts is the film’s lead. Madison, who marveled with her small roles in Once Upon a Time…in Hollywood and the Scream reboot, has a classic baity character in the comedic Anora, that of a young sex worker from Brooklyn who gets her chance at a Cinderella story when she meets and impulsively marries the son of a Russian oligarch.
Comebacks are in season this year with career returns and legitimacy at stake; Demi Moore in MUBI’s The Substance from Coralie Fargeat, which looks at Hollywood aging through the lens of horror and sci-fi and Pamela Anderson in The Last Showgirl, about a seasoned performer who must plan for her future when her show abruptly closes after a 30-year run. Marianne Jean-Baptiste in Bleecker Street’s Hard Truths, reunites her with 7-time Oscar nominee Mike Leigh, with whom Jean-Baptiste earned her first and only Oscar nomination (so far) for 1996’s Secrets & Lies. Hard Truths is at Bleecker Street, who don’t have a huge history with churning out Oscar nominations for its films or actors; only Bryan Cranston in 2015’s Trumbo and Viggo Mortensen 2016’s Captain Fantastic (both lead nods) have earned that. Not even Oscar winner Helen Mirren, who co-starred with Cranston in Trumbo, could make the cut despite earning nominations from Critics Choice, Golden Globes, SAG and BAFTA.
Academy Awards nominations will be announced January 17, 2025 and the 97th Oscars will be held on March 2.
Here are my 2025 Oscar predictions in Best Actress for June.
- 1. Amy Adams – Nightbitch (Searchlight Pictures)
- 2. Angelina Jolie – Maria (TBA)
- 3. Karla Sofía Gascón – Emilia Pérez (Netflix)
- 4. Mikey Madison – Anora (NEON)
- 5. Tessa Thompson – Hedda (Amazon MGM)
- 6. Saoirse Ronan – Blitz (Apple Original Films)
- 7. Danielle Deadwyler – The Piano Lesson (Netflix)
- 8. Marianne Jean-Baptiste – Hard Truths (Bleecker Street)
- 9. Florence Pugh – We Live in Time (A24)
- 10. Demi Moore – The Substance (MUBI)
Next up: Pamela Anderson – The Last Showgirl (TBA), Glenn Close – The Summer Book (TBA), Ryan Destiny – The Fire Inside (Amazon MGM), Cynthia Erivo – Wicked Part 1 (Universal Pictures), Lady Gaga – Joker: Folie à Deux (Warner Bros), Lily Gladstone – Fancy Dance (Apple Original Films), Jennifer Lopez – Unstoppable (Amazon MGM), Natasha Lyonne – His Three Daughters (Netflix), Emma Stone – Kinds of Kindness (Searchlight Pictures), Kate Winslet – Lee (Roadside Attractions/Vertical Entertainment)
Lead or supporting?: Glenn Close – The Summer Book (TBA), Danielle Deadwyler – The Piano Lesson (Netflix), Jennifer Lopez – Unstoppable (Amazon MGM), Natasha Lyonne – His Three Daughters (Netflix), Saoirse Ronan – Blitz (Apple Original Films), Zoe Saldaña – Emilia Pérez (Netflix)
Other contenders: Cate Blanchett – Father, Mother, Sister, Brother (TBA), Michaela Coel – Mother Mary (A24), Jodie Comer – The Bikeriders (Focus Features), Carrie Coon – His Three Daughters (Netflix), Ariana Grande – Wicked Part I (Universal Pictures), Anne Hathaway – Mother Mary (A24), Nicole Kidman – Baby Girl (A24), Jessica Lange – Long Day’s Journey Into Night (MGM), Julia Louis-Dreyfus – Tuesday (A24), Fernanda Montenegro – Vitória (TBA), Julianne Nicholson – Janet Planet (A24), Elizabeth Olsen – His Three Daughters (Netflix), Zoe Saldaña – Emilia Pérez (Netflix), Tilda Swinton – The Room Next Door (Sony Pictures Classics), Tilda Swinton – The End (NEON), Kristin Scott Thomas – Women in the Castle (TBA), Anna Kendrick – Woman of the Hour (Netflix), Zendaya – Challengers (Amazon MGM)
2024 or 2025?: Jessica Lange – Long Day’s Journey Into Night (MGM), Jennifer Lopez – Unstoppable (Amazon MGM), Tessa Thompson – Hedda (Amazon MGM)
He is a Rotten Tomatoes-approved critic, accredited by the Cannes Film Festival, Telluride Film Festival, Toronto International Film Festival and more, is a member of the International Cinephile Society (ICS), The Society of LGBTQ Entertainment Critics (GALECA), Hollywood Critics Association (HCA) and the International Press Academy. Among his many achieved goals with AwardsWatch, he has given a platform to underrepresented writers and critics and supplied them with access to film festivals and the industry and calls the Bay Area his home where he lives with his husband and son.
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