2026 Oscar Predictions: BEST ACTOR (August)
There’s something interesting about Timothée Chalamet’s trajectory as both and actor and an Oscar nominee that isn’t unlike Leonardo DiCaprio is many ways. Both broke through teens and earning an Oscar nomination in their early 20s (22 and 20, respectively), turning that into a canon of films both cool and indie films to massive in blockbuster before finally earning a second Oscar nod in biopics. But it took DiCaprio another full decade before the Academy gave him the win so if Chalamet is indeed on a similar path he’s got a ways before it’s his turn at bat.
But, that doesn’t change the fact that he’s a top tier contender this season for Marty Supreme, his second biopic in a row after his Oscar-nominated turn as Bob Dylan in A Complete Unknown last year. Like that film, Marty Supreme (from director Josh Safdie) is looking to skip the festival route and make its bow to the general public on Christmas Day from A24. The early release of the film’s trailer last week seems to bode well for the studio’s feelings about generating early buzz and there is a tiny chance it could be a surprise showing at Telluride or AFI but that’s a longshot at best.
While Chalamet’s best competition is likely going to come from Jeremy Allen White playing Bruce Springsteen there’s a more interesting and internal struggle at play and that’s Dwayne Johnson in The Smashing Machine, A24’s other big fall/winter biopic and directed by Benny Safdie. With a Venice bow soon and an October release for The Smashing Machine, A24 is definitely making sure there’s enough distance between the brothers’ films to help keep the conversation from being too much about the comparisons of their first solo films but it will be inevitable.
Here are my 2026 Oscar nomination predictions in Best Actor for August.
| 1. Timothée Chalamet – Marty Supreme (A24) ↑ |
| 2. Jeremy Allen White – Springsteen: Deliver Me From Nowhere (20th Century Studios) ↓ |
| 3. George Clooney – Jay Kelly (Netflix) |
| 4. Brendan Fraser – Rental Family (Searchlight Pictures) |
| 5. Wagner Moura – The Secret Agent (NEON) |
| 6. Dwayne Johnson – The Smashing Machine (A24) ↑ |
| 7. Michael B. Jordan – Sinners (Warner Bros) |
| 8. Leonardo DiCaprio – One Battle After Another(Warner Bros) |
| 9. Jesse Plemons – Bugonia (Focus Features) ↓ |
| 10. Will Arnett – Is This Thing On? (Searchlight Pictures) |
| 11. Daniel Day-Lewis* – Anemone (Focus Features) |
| 12. Colin Farrell – The Ballad of a Small Player (Netflix) ↑ |
| 13. Oscar Isaac – Frankenstein (Netflix) ↑ |
| 14. Lee Byung-hun – No Other Choice (NEON) ↑ |
| 15. Ethan Hawke – Blue Moon (Sony Pictures Classics) ↑ |
| 16. Matthew McConaughey – The Lost Bus (Apple Original Films) ↓ |
| 17. Denzel Washington – Highest 2 Lowest (Apple Original Films/A24) |
| 18. Tonatiuh – Kiss of the Spider Woman (Lionsgate/Roadside Attractions) |
| 19. Dylan O’Brien* – Twinless (Lionsgate/Roadside Attractions) – Sundance winner |
| 20. Joel Edgerton – Train Dreams (Netflix) |
Other contenders: Austin Butler – Caught Stealing (A24), Willem Dafoe – Late Flame (TBD), Benicio Del Toro – The Phoenician Scheme (Focus Features), Idris Elba* – A House of Dynamite (Netflix), Colin Farrell – A Big Bold Beautiful Journey (Sony Pictures/TriStar), Ralph Fiennes – The Choral (Sony Pictures Classics), Hugh Jackman – Song Song Blue (Focus Features), Rami Malek – Nuremberg (Sony Pictures Classics), Guillaume Marbeck – Nouvelle Vague (Netflix), Paul Mescal – The History of Sound (MUBI), Josh O’Connor – The Mastermind (MUBI), Brad Pitt – F1: The Movie (Apple Original Films/Warner Bros), Channing Tatum – Roofman (Paramount Pictures)
*Lead or supporting? Daniel Day-Lewis – Anemone (Focus Features), Idris Elba – A House of Dynamite (Netflix), Tom Hiddleston – The Life of Chuck (NEON), Dylan O’Brien – Twinless (Lionsgate/Roadside Attractions) – Sundance winner
2025 or 2026? Murray Bartlett – At the Sea (TBD), Robert Pattinson – The Drama (A24)
He is a Rotten Tomatoes-approved critic, accredited by the Cannes Film Festival, Telluride Film Festival, Toronto International Film Festival and more, is a member of the International Cinephile Society (ICS), The Society of LGBTQ Entertainment Critics (GALECA), Critics Choice Association (CCA), San Francisco Bay Area Film Critics Circle (SFBAFCC) and the International Press Academy. Among his many achieved goals with AwardsWatch, he has given a platform to underrepresented writers and critics and supplied them with access to film festivals and the industry and calls the Bay Area his home where he lives with his husband and son.
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