2026 Oscar Predictions: BEST ACTRESS (September)

As bleak as last month was for this category, it’s actually even more so now. With Venice, Telluride and Toronto film festivals wrapped and very little in the way of major pickups by studios and streamers to speak of, so I’ve booted most TBDs out of the top 10. Amanda Seyfried in The Testament of Ann Lee seems like the closest to be able to return and while rumors of a buy circulated last week, they were unfounded and the Mona Fastvold film remains without a home.

After the rapturous reaction to Hamnet at Telluride, where the film topped the critics and industry voter list, and Toronto, where it won the People’s Choice Award, Jessie Buckley moves firmly into the #1 spot in what could be the one of the earliest ‘locks’ of the season. The Focus Features release directed by double Oscar winner Chloé Zhao earned rave reviews with Buckley’s work most often being named the standout in the film. But Focus Features has more up its sleeve for this category, where Emma Stone in Bugonia will likely see a lead push for the two-time Best Actress winner. Next is Kate Hudson in Song Song Blue, which will close AFI FEST next month. In the film, Hudson plays half of a Neil Diamond cover band in the true story dramedy.

The disastrous response to After the Hunt at Venice feels like it blew a giant hole in Julia Roberts’ chances and maybe the New York audiences will be a little kinder to the film when it opens NYFF, but I’m not holding my breath. Her general popularity and the bleakness of this category could find a path for her that includes a Golden Globes nom (maybe SAG) but that feels like the max for the previous Best Actress winner whose last Oscar nomination was for 2013’s August: Osage County.

I wonder if Warner Bros might take advantage of the openness in this category to position newcomer Chase Infiniti in lead status for the upcoming One Battle After Another, for which she’s received raves. It’s more of a healthy supporting turn but one of three that also includes Teyana Taylor and Regina Hall in smaller roles that could keep supporting campaigns focused on them should Infiniti see a lead push.

Emma Stone moves from supporting to lead this month on new info on her category push for Bugonia and Julia Garner makes her top 20 debut for the summer horror smash Weapons. Keeping Rebecca Ferguson in place for now but a lead campaign feels tenuous at best for the ensemble piece that A House of Dynamite is.

Here are my 2026 Oscar nomination predictions in Best Actress for September.

Other contenders: Valeria Bruni Tedeschi – Duse (TBD) ↓, Sally Hawkins – Bring Her Back (A24) ↓, Angelina Jolie – Couture (TBD) ↓, Lucy Liu – Rosemead (Vertical), Nadia Melliti – The Little Sister (TBD) – Cannes winner, Anya Taylor-Joy – Sacrifice (TBD)

*Lead or supporting? Emily Blunt – The Smashing Machine (A24), Laura Dern – Is This Thing On? (Searchlight Pictures), Chase Infiniti – One Battle After Another (Warner Bros)

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Erik Anderson

Erik Anderson is the founder/owner and Editor-in-Chief of AwardsWatch and has always loved all things Oscar, having watched the Academy Awards since he was in single digits; making lists, rankings and predictions throughout the show. This led him down the path to obsessing about awards. Much later, he found himself in film school and the film forums of GoldDerby, and then migrated over to the former Oscarwatch (now AwardsDaily), before breaking off to create AwardsWatch in 2013.

He is a Rotten Tomatoes-approved critic, accredited by the Cannes Film Festival, Telluride Film Festival, Toronto International Film Festival and more, is a member of the International Cinephile Society (ICS), The Society of LGBTQ Entertainment Critics (GALECA), Critics Choice Association (CCA), San Francisco Bay Area Film Critics Circle (SFBAFCC) and the International Press Academy. Among his many achieved goals with AwardsWatch, he has given a platform to underrepresented writers and critics and supplied them with access to film festivals and the industry and calls the Bay Area his home where he lives with his husband and son.

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