2026 Oscar Predictions: BEST PICTURE and BEST DIRECTOR (October)

At the midpoint of AFI FEST, we’re winding down on the film festival season proper, making way for the awards-driven fests like SCAD Savannah, Santa Barbara and Palm Springs that exist less to present films and more about tributes, honors and non-competitive trophies with names like ‘virtuoso,’ ‘visionary,’ and ‘vanguard’ that exist as one of many stops on campaigns ahead of and during crucial voting periods for both critics and industry awards. Not to mention the all important Governors Awards on November 16. If you didn’t go to the recent Academy Gala, the the Governors Awards is the must be at event of the early season.

With that, it’s always interesting to see films that premiere at festivals and have quiet, or even bad receptions, only to rally once they land in Los Angeles. Netflix’s Frankenstein may be one of the biggest benefactors of that after its Venice and Telluride bows didn’t exactly blow the doors off their screening rooms but once the film hit TIFF and then made its way to Southern California, review numbers went up, screenings popped off and for many, re-entered several predictions lists. One of Netflix’s other major players that kicked off on the Lido, Jay Kelly, seems to have found its footing as well. After its AFI FEST premiere last night with 200 Academy members in the packed screening of the TCL Chinese, the George Clooney-starrer about the negative impact of the industry itself on personal and familial relationships was met with a hugely positive response both immediately post-film and at the exclusive party at the Sunset Towers where the stars showed up to sip French 75s and talk with voters.

Here are my 2026 Oscar nomination predictions in Best Picture and Best Director for October.

BEST PICTURE

Next up: Blue Moon (Sony Pictures Classics) ↑, If I Had Legs I’d Kick You (A24) ↑, No Other Choice (NEON) ↓, Nouvelle Vague (Netflix), Rental Family (Searchlight Pictures), Sound of Falling (MUBI), Song Sung Blue (Focus Features) NEW, The Testament of Ann Lee (Searchlight Pictures), The Voice of Hind Rajab (awaiting U.S. distribution) NEW

Other contenders: After the Hunt (Amazon MGM) ↓, Anemone (Focus Features) ↓, The Ballad of the Small Player (Netflix) ↓, A Bold, Beautiful Journey (Sony Pictures), Die My Love (MUBI), Eleanor the Great (Sony Pictures Classics), Ella McCay (20th Century Studios), Father, Mother, Sister, Brother (MUBI), Highest 2 Lowest (Apple/A24), The History of Sound (MUBI), The Life of Chuck (NEON), The Lost Bus (Apple Original Films), The Mastermind (MUBI), Materialists (A24), The Phoenician Scheme (Focus Features)

BEST DIRECTOR

Next up: Richard Linklater – Blue Moon (Sony Pictures Classics) ↓, Richard Linklater – Nouvelle Vague (Netflix), Hikari – Rental Family (Searchlight Pictures), Mona Fastvold – The Testament of Ann Lee (Searchlight Pictures), Kaouther Ben Hania – The Voice of Hind Rajab (awaiting U.S. distribution) NEW

Other contenders: Luca Guadagnino – After the Hunt (Amazon MGM) ↓, Ronan Day-Lewis – Anemone (Focus Features), Edward Berger – The Ballad of the Small Player (Netflix), Kogonada – A Bold, Beautiful Journey (Sony Pictures), Lynne Ramsay – Die My Love (MUBI), James L. Brooks – Ella McCay (20th Century Studios), Jim Jarmusch – Father Mother Sister Brother (MUBI), Oliver Hermanus – The History of Sound (MUBI), Mike Flanagan – The Life of Chuck (NEON), Paul Greengrass – The Lost Bus (Apple Original Films), Celine Song – Materialists (A24), Wes Anderson – The Phoenician Scheme (Focus Features), Song Sung Blue – Craig Brewer (Focus Features) NEW, Mascha Schilinski – Sound of Falling (MUBI)

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Erik Anderson

Erik Anderson is the founder/owner and Editor-in-Chief of AwardsWatch and has always loved all things Oscar, having watched the Academy Awards since he was in single digits; making lists, rankings and predictions throughout the show. This led him down the path to obsessing about awards. Much later, he found himself in film school and the film forums of GoldDerby, and then migrated over to the former Oscarwatch (now AwardsDaily), before breaking off to create AwardsWatch in 2013.

He is a Rotten Tomatoes-approved critic, accredited by the Cannes Film Festival, Telluride Film Festival, Toronto International Film Festival and more, is a member of the International Cinephile Society (ICS), The Society of LGBTQ Entertainment Critics (GALECA), Critics Choice Association (CCA), San Francisco Bay Area Film Critics Circle (SFBAFCC) and the International Press Academy. Among his many achieved goals with AwardsWatch, he has given a platform to underrepresented writers and critics and supplied them with access to film festivals and the industry and calls the Bay Area his home where he lives with his husband and son.

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