2021 Oscar Shortlists Predictions

On Tuesday, February 9 the Academy will release this year’s shortlists for Oscar consideration in nine categories: Original Score, Original Song, Makeup and Hairstyling, Visual Effects, International Feature Film, Documentary Feature and the Shorts: Animated, Documentary Short Subject and Live Action.

The Shorts, Visual Effects and Makeup and Hairstyling will be comprised of 10 contenders moving on to the Oscar race, while the rest will have 15. Different this year is International Feature Film as the Board of Governors announced just weeks ago that they were eliminating the executive committee that selects three films after the general committee chooses their seven to compete. There will now be a straight 15 films from the general committee only.

As always, you can expect some big snubs and surprises and a few things that make perfect sense in hindsight. One thing these shortlists can do is show us what films may have an upperhand across the board if they have branch support in an unexpected category. Promising Young Woman showing up in Makeup and Hairstyling, for example, would show a broad support for the film. In the same category is where we’ll see a film (or films) that haven’t been in the conversation yet, usually a non-English language film that grabbed the attention of the branch. Visual Effects should be really interesting with the majority of studio tent-pole blockbusters pulling up their stakes and moving to later in 2021. Expect films with ‘supporting’ VFX to potentially do well. Not sure how Birds of Prey is going to play out here and in Makeup and Hairstyling since Warner Bros strangely decided to not even include the film on their FYC page.

With Jared Leto making a very late-breaking attempt to crash the Oscars with those Golden Globe and Screen Actors Guild nominations (but no BAFTA longlist) you can bet that Thomas Newman’s score for The Little Things will be on the shortlist. With his score for Let Them All Talk not qualifying, this is where the music branch can check off the 15-time Oscar nominee. Speaking of multi-nominees, 11-timer Diane Warren can probably get two original songs on the shortlist but can she pull of three?

Here are my Oscar shortlist predictions for seven categories in alphabetical order for Original Score, Original Song, Makeup and Hairstyling, Visual Effects, Animated Feature, Documentary Feature and International Feature Film.

Original Score (15) – 136 qualified

• Ammonite
• Da 5 Bloods
• Hillbilly Elegy
• The Life Ahead
• The Little Things
• Minari
• Mank
• The Midnight Sky
• Mulan
• News of the World
• Over the Moon
• Soul
• Tenet
• The Trial of the Chicago 7

Watch out for: The Glorias, The Invisible Man, Wonder Woman 1984

Original Song (15) – 105 qualified

• “Carried Me With You” from Onward
• “Free” from The One and Only Ivan
• “Fight for You” from Judas and the Black Messiah
• “Hear My Voice” from The Trial of the Chicago 7
• “Husavik (My Hometown)” from Eurovision Song Contest: The Story of Fire Saga
• “Just Sing” from Trolls: World Tour
• “Rocket to the Moon” from Over the Moon
• “Io Sì” (Seen)” from The Life Ahead
• “Poverty Porn” from The Forty-Year Old Version
• “Rain Song” from Minari
• “Speak Now” from One Night in Miami…
• “Tigress & Tweed” from The United States vs. Billie Holiday
• “Turntables” from All In: The Fight for Democracy
• “Wear Your Crown” from The Prom
• “Wuhan Flu” from Borat Subsequent Moviefilm

Watch out for: “Loyal Brave True” from Mulan, “The Plan” from Tenet, “Staring at the Mountain” from Never Rarely Sometimes Always

Makeup and Hairstyling (10)

• Bill & Ted Face the Music
• Borat Subsequent Moviefilm
• Emma.
• Hillbilly Elegy
• Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom
• Mank
• Mulan
• Pinocchio
• Promising Young Woman
• The United States vs Billie Holiday

Watch out for: Birds of Prey, Jallikattu, The Prom

Visual Effects (10)

• Doolittle 
• Greyhound
• The Invisible Man
• Mank
• The Midnight Sky
• Mulan
• The One and Only Ivan
• Sonic the Hedgehog
• Soul
• Tenet

Watch out for: Birds of Prey, Greenland, Over the Moon

International Feature Film (15)

• Another Round (Denmark)
• Apples (Greece)
• The Auschwitz Report (Slovakia)
• Charlatan (Czech Republic)
• Collective (Romania)
• Dear Comrades! (Russia)
• Hope (Norway)
• I’m No Longer Here (Mexico)
• La Llorona (Guatemala)
• The Mole Agent (Chile)
• Night of the Kings (Ivory Coast)
• Quo Vadis, Aida? (Bosnia-Herzegovina)
• A Sun (Taiwan)
• Two of Us (France)
• You Will Die at Twenty (Sudan)

Watch out for: Atlantis (Ukraine), My Little Sister (Switzerland), Preparations to be Together for an Unknown Period of Time (Hungary)

Documentary Feature (15)

• 76 Days
• All In: The Fight for Democracy
• Boys State
• Collective
• Crip Camp: A Disability Revolution
• Dick Johnson is Dead
• The Dissident
• MLK/FBI
• My Octopus Teacher
• Time
• A Thousand Cuts
• The Truffle Hunters
• Welcome to Chechnya

Watch out for: Athlete A, Notturno, The Painter and the Thief

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Erik Anderson

Erik Anderson is the founder/owner and Editor-in-Chief of AwardsWatch and has always loved all things Oscar, having watched the Academy Awards since he was in single digits; making lists, rankings and predictions throughout the show. This led him down the path to obsessing about awards. Much later, he found himself in film school and the film forums of GoldDerby, and then migrated over to the former Oscarwatch (now AwardsDaily), before breaking off to create AwardsWatch in 2013.

He is a Rotten Tomatoes-approved critic, accredited by the Cannes Film Festival, Telluride Film Festival, Toronto International Film Festival and more, is a member of the International Cinephile Society (ICS), The Society of LGBTQ Entertainment Critics (GALECA), Hollywood Critics Association (HCA) and the International Press Academy. Among his many achieved goals with AwardsWatch, he has given a platform to underrepresented writers and critics and supplied them with access to film festivals and the industry and calls the Bay Area his home where he lives with his husband and son.

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