2023 Oscar Predictions: BEST PICTURE (June)

Virtually unmoved top 10 outside of Searchlight’s Poor Things off the 2022 calendar and A24’s The Whale securely on it. It won’t be easy for the one-time Best Picture-winning studio to nab two spots, it’s struggled in recent years when they’ve had too many prospects to support and campaign for but if Brendan Fraser is going to win Best Actor, the need for a corresponding Best Picture nomination as we are in a 12-year streak of it right now.

Even in only June (the last day, nonetheless) it is starting to feel like we know what the studio priorities are going to be almost across the board, at least for the likes of Apple, Universal, SPC, Paramount and 20th while Netflix is still a bit of a blur. Although I have Alejandro G. Iñárritu’s Bardo, False Chronicle of a Handful of Truths as their main push, the controversies and stigma surrounding the film (sketchy on-set COVID protocols) and the streamer licking its wounds from yet another 2nd place Best Picture finish, I wonder if they’ll keep their strategy a little closer to the vest this season.

Here are my 2023 Oscar predictions in Best Picture for June 2022.

Green – moves up ↑ Red – moves down ↓ Blue – new entry ♦

1. The Fabelmans (Universal Pictures)
2. Killers of the Flower Moon (Apple Original Films)
3. Babylon (Paramount Pictures)
4. Bardo, False Chronicle of a Handful of Truths (Netflix)
5. Everything Everywhere All at Once (A24)
6. Avatar: The Way of Water (20th Century Studios)
7. Women Talking (MGM/UAR)
8. The Son (Sony Pictures Classics)
9. The Whale (A24)
10. Empire of Light (Searchlight Pictures) – 2022 or 2023?

11. TÁR (Focus Features)
12. Thirteen Lives (Amazon Studios/MGM/UAR)
13. Broker (NEON)
14. The Banshees of Inisherin (Searchlight Pictures)
15. Elvis (Warner Bros)
16. She Said (Universal Pictures) 
17. White Noise (Netflix)
18. Napoleon (Apple Original Films) – 2022 or 2023?
19. Triangle of Sadness (NEON)
20. Shirley (Netflix)

Other contenders (alphabetical):

• All Quiet on the Western Front (Netflix)
• Armageddon Time (Focus Features)
• Blonde (Netflix)
• Bones and All (MGM/UAR)
• The Burial (Amazon Studios)
• Carmen (Sony Pictures Classics)
• Cha Cha Real Smooth (Apple Original Films)
• Chevalier (Searchlight Pictures)
• Civil War (A24) – 2022 or 2023?
• Close (A24)
• Amsterdam – 20^th Century Studios
• Decision to Leave (MUBI)
• Disappointment Blvd. (A24) – 2022 or 2023?
• Don’t Worry Darling (Warner Bros)
• Flamin’ Hot (Searchlight Pictures)
• Foe (Amazon Studios)
• Golda (Bleecker Street)
• The Good Nurse (Netflix)
• The Greatest Beer Run Ever (Apple Original Films)
• Happening (IFC Films)
• I Wanna Dance with Somebody (Columbia/TriStar)
• The Killer (Netflix) – 2022 or 2023?
• Lady Chatterley’s Lover (Netflix)
• Living (Sony Pictures Classics)
• The Menu (Searchlight Pictures)
• Monkey Man (Netflix)
• My Policeman (Amazon Studios)
• Next Goal Wins (Searchlight Pictures)
• Nyad (Netflix)
• The Pale Blue Eye (Netflix)
• Raymond & Ray (Apple Original Films)
• Red, White and Water (A24)
• Rustin (Netflix)
• Showing Up (A24)
• Spaceman of Bohemia (Netflix)
• Spoiler Alert (Focus Features)
• The Swimmers (Netflix)
• Three Thousand Years of Longing (MGM/UAR)
• Till (MGM/UAR)
• Top Gun: Maverick (Paramount Pictures)
• True Love – 20^th Century Studios
• The Wonder (Netflix)
• The Zone of Interest (A24)

Without distribution

• Across the River and Into the Trees – TBD
• Asteroid City – TBD
• Brother and Sister – TBD
• The Brutalist – TBD
• Corner Office – TBD
• Don Juan – TBD
• Joika – TBD
• The Lost King – TBD
• Maggie Moore(s) – TBD
• Manodrome – TBD
• Misanthrope – TBD
• November – TBD

Photo: Sam Aronov/Shutterstock

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Erik Anderson

Erik Anderson is the founder/owner and Editor-in-Chief of AwardsWatch and has always loved all things Oscar, having watched the Academy Awards since he was in single digits; making lists, rankings and predictions throughout the show. This led him down the path to obsessing about awards. Much later, he found himself in film school and the film forums of GoldDerby, and then migrated over to the former Oscarwatch (now AwardsDaily), before breaking off to create AwardsWatch in 2013.

He is a Rotten Tomatoes-approved critic, accredited by the Cannes Film Festival, Telluride Film Festival, Toronto International Film Festival and more, is a member of the International Cinephile Society (ICS), The Society of LGBTQ Entertainment Critics (GALECA), Hollywood Critics Association (HCA) and the International Press Academy. Among his many achieved goals with AwardsWatch, he has given a platform to underrepresented writers and critics and supplied them with access to film festivals and the industry and calls the Bay Area his home where he lives with his husband and son.

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