Frontrunner Friday: First 2023 Oscar winner predictions
The long road to the Oscar nominations is finally over and the faster paced Phase II now begins. With less than 50 days before the 95th Academy Awards, we’ll have a dozen guilds like the Producers Guild, Directors Guild and Screen Actors Guild ceremonies anoint their winners all leading down the path of the very small Oscar winner voting window of March 2-7.
As of know, I think fortune favors Everything Everywhere All At Once for Best Picture, where the March 2022 release has been – and still – exists between universes, as both a frontrunner and an underdog. You can’t get much better than that in an Oscar race as recent years have shown and last year’s win for CODA showed proved how crucial this second phase is.
Going through the Best Picture top 10, I’m tempted to predict voters will spread the wealth a bit but there’s a very real scenario where more than a few go home empty-handed. The Banshees of Inisherin, for example, could land just Original Screenplay (or, in a possible upset, Supporting Actress) or nothing at all. TÁR, while very well place in the top three now, is probably only solid for Cate Blanchett in Best Actress, but Michelle Yeoh is right there. I’m not holding out any hope for Triangle of Sadness to win any of its three nominations, but I do think Women Talking landing a BP spot all but ensures an Adapted Screenplay win. The huge nine nominations for All Quiet on the Western Front have to mean something, right? Or is it just a close runner-up everywhere? With the top two films out of the cinematography race, that could be where it comes through.
For the moment I’m probably going against better judgement and sticking with Brendan Fraser (The Whale) for Best Actor. All season, and I mean all season, I’ve stuck with Fraser on the contingent that his film get a Best Picture nomination as that has been one of the hardest lines the Academy has seemingly drawn in the expanded BP lineup era outside of the very first year with Jeff Bridges for 2009’s Crazy Heart. An exceptional case as his closest competitor, Colin Firth (A Single Man) was his film’s only nomination and the two actors who where in Best Picture nominees (George Clooney in Up in the Air and Jeremy Renner in Best Picture winner The Hurt Locker) weren’t really a factor. All of that makes for a very competitive race with Fraser and Golden Globe winners Austin Butler (Elvis) and Colin Farrell (The Banshees of Inisherin), in much stronger films. But at the end of the day, it could just end up exactly like 2009.
How do you even begin to talk about the Best Actress race this season with everything that has unfolded in the mere days since the nominations were announced? The all-star campaign by Oscar-winning actors and screen veterans to get Andrea Riseborough a nomination for her underseen film To Leslie paid off, she got in. But paid off is a big part of this equation, who actually paid for her campaign and e-blasts to the Academy and all of the other “grassroots” elements that bore fruit? Stranger still, because spending money on campaigns is nothing new, did actress Frances Fisher and actress Mary McCormack (wife of To Leslie director Mark Morris) violate Academy campaign rules and do so in a way that too obvious? Apparently enough to warrant an investigation that will be the topic of conversation at the next Academy board meeting on Tuesday, January 31 that could effectively revoke her nomination. It’s hard not to feel bad for Riseborough, who seems to have been pretty far outside of the sphere of this awards season push, even as she participated in high-profile Q&As for her film ahead of Oscar voting. She’s not a seasoned awards campaigner or player, she’s a respected and versatile actress caught up in a peripheral storm not of her making but suddenly in the eye of it.
Here are my first Oscar winner predictions for the 95th Academy Awards.
BEST PICTURE
| 1. Everything Everywhere All at Once (A24) – BAFTA, CCA, GG, PGA, SAG Daniel Kwan, Daniel Scheinert and Jonathan Wang, Producers |
| 2. The Banshees of Inisherin (Searchlight Pictures) – BAFTA, CCA, GG, PGA, SAG Graham Broadbent, Pete Czernin and Martin McDonagh, Producers |
| 3. TÁR (Focus Features) – BAFTA, CCA, GG, PGA Todd Field, Alexandra Milchan and Scott Lambert, Producers |
| 4. The Fabelmans (Universal Pictures) – CCA, GG, PGA, SAG Kristie Macosko Krieger, Steven Spielberg and Tony Kushner, Producers |
| 5. Elvis (Warner Bros) – BAFTA, CCA, GG, PGA Baz Luhrmann, Catherine Martin, Gail Berman, Patrick McCormick and Schuyler Weiss, Producers |
| 6. All Quiet on the Western Front (Netflix) – BAFTA Malte Grunert, Producer |
| 7. Triangle of Sadness (NEON) – GG Erik Hemmendorff and Philippe Bober, Producers |
| 8. Top Gun: Maverick (Paramount Pictures) – CCA, GG, PGA Tom Cruise, Christopher McQuarrie, David Ellison and Jerry Bruckheimer, Producers |
| 9. Women Talking (United Artists Releasing/Orion Pictures) – SAG Dede Gardner, Jeremy Kleiner and Frances McDormand, Producers |
| 10. Avatar: The Way of Water (20th Century Studios) – CCA, GG, PGA James Cameron and Jon Landau, Producers |
DIRECTING
| 1. Daniel Kwan and Daniel Scheinert – Everything Everywhere All At Once (A24) – BAFTA, CCA, GG, DGA |
| 2. Martin McDonagh – The Banshees of Inisherin (Searchlight Pictures) – BAFTA, CCA, GG, DGA |
| 3. Steven Spielberg – The Fabelmans (Universal Pictures) – CCA, GG, DGA |
| 4. Todd Field – TÁR (Focus Features) – BAFTA, CCA, DGA |
| 5. Ruben Östlund – Triangle of Sadness (NEON) |
ACTOR IN A LEADING ROLE
| 1. Brendan Fraser – The Whale (A24) – BAFTA, CCA, GG, SAG |
| 2. Austin Butler – Elvis (Warner Bros) – BAFTA, CCA, GG, SAG |
| 3. Colin Farrell – The Banshees of Inisherin (Searchlight Pictures) – BAFTA, CCA, GG, SAG |
| 4. Bill Nighy – Living (Sony Pictures Classics) – BAFTA, CCA, GG, SAG |
| 5. Paul Mescal – Aftersun (A24) – BAFTA, CCA |
ACTRESS IN A LEADING ROLE
| 1. Cate Blanchett – TÁR (Focus Features) – BAFTA, CCA, GG, SAG |
| 2. Michelle Yeoh – Everything Everywhere All At Once (A24) – BAFTA, CCA, GG, SAG |
| 3. Michelle Williams – The Fabelmans (Universal Pictures) – CCA, GG |
| 4. Ana de Armas – Blonde (Netflix) – BAFTA, GG, SAG |
| 5. Andrea Riseborough – To Leslie (Momentum Pictures) |
ACTOR IN A SUPPORTING ROLE
| 1. Ke Huy Quan – Everything Everywhere All At Once (A24) – BAFTA, CCA, GG, SAG |
| 2. Brendan Gleeson – The Banshees of Inisherin (Searchlight Pictures) – BAFTA, CCA, GG, SAG |
| 3. Barry Keoghan – The Banshees of Inisherin (Searchlight Pictures) – BAFTA, CCA, GG, SAG |
| 4. Judd Hirsch – The Fabelmans (Universal Pictures) – CCA |
| 5. Brian Tyree Henry – Causeway (Apple Original Films) – CCA |
ACTRESS IN A SUPPORTING ROLE
| 1. Angela Bassett – Black Panther: Wakanda Forever (Walt Disney/Marvel) – BAFTA, CCA, GG, SAG |
| 2. Kerry Condon – The Banshees of Inisherin (Searchlight Pictures) – BAFTA, CCA, GG, SAG |
| 3. Hong Chau – The Whale (A24) – BAFTA, SAG |
| 4. Stephanie Hsu – Everything Everywhere All At Once (A24) – CCA, SAG |
| 5. Jamie Lee Curtis – Everything Everywhere All At Once (A24) – CCA, BAFTA, GG, SAG |
ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
| 1. Women Talking (UAR/Orion) – CCA, GG, USC, WGA Screenplay by Sarah Polley |
| 2. All Quiet on the Western Front (Netflix) – BAFTA Screenplay by Edward Berger, Lesley Paterson & Ian Stokell |
| 3. Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery (Netflix) – CCA, WGA Written by Rian Johnson |
| 4. Living (Sony Pictures Classics) – BAFTA, CCA, USC Written by Kazuo Ishiguro |
| 5. Top Gun: Maverick (Paramount Pictures) – USC, WGA Screenplay by Ehren Kruger and Eric Warren Singer and Christopher McQuarrie; Story by Peter Craig and Justin Marks |
ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
| 1. The Banshees of Inisherin (Searchlight Pictures) – BAFTA, CCA, GG Written by Martin McDonagh |
| 2. Everything Everywhere All At Once (A24) – BAFTA, CCA, GG, WGA Written by Daniel Kwan & Daniel Scheinert |
| 3. TÁR (Focus Features) – BAFTA, CCA, GG, WGA Written by Todd Field |
| 4. The Fabelmans (Universal Pictures) – BAFTA, CCA, GG, WGA Written by Steven Spielberg & Tony Kushner |
| 5. Triangle of Sadness (NEON) – BAFTA Written by Ruben Östlund |
FILM EDITING
| 1. Everything Everywhere All At Once (A24) – BAFTA, CCA Paul Rogers |
| 2. Top Gun: Maverick (Paramount Pictures) – BAFTA, CCA Eddie Hamilton |
| 3. Elvis (Warner Bros) – BAFTA, CCA Matt Villa and Jonathan Redmond |
| 4. The Banshees of Inisherin (Searchlight Pictures) – BAFTA Mikkel E.G. Nielsen |
| 5. TÁR (Focus Features) – CCA Monika Willi |
CINEMATOGRAPHY
| 1. All Quiet on the Western Front (Netflix) – BAFTA James Friend |
| 2. Elvis (Warner Bros) – ASC, BAFTA Mandy Walker |
| 3. TÁR (Focus Features) – CCA Florian Hoffmeister |
| 4. Empire of Light (Searchlight Pictures) – ASC, BAFTA, CCA Roger Deakins |
| 5. Bardo, False Chronicle of a Handful of Truths (Netflix) – ASC Darius Khondji |
PRODUCTION DESIGN
| 1. Elvis (Warner Bros) – ADG, BAFTA, CCA, SDSA Production Design: Catherine Martin and Karen Murphy; Set Decoration: Bev Dunn |
| 2. Babylon (Paramount Pictures) – ADG, BAFTA, CCA, SDSA Production Design: Florencia Martin; Set Decoration: Anthony Carlino |
| 3. All Quiet on the Western Front (Netflix) – ADG, BAFTA Production Design: Christian M. Goldbeck; Set Decoration: Ernestine Hipper |
| 4. The Fabelmans (Universal Pictures) – ADG, CCA, SDSA Production Design: Rick Carter; Set Decoration: Karen O’Hara |
| 5. Avatar: The Way of Water (20th Century Studios) – ADG, CCA, SDSA Production Design: Dylan Cole and Ben Procter; Set Decoration: Vanessa Cole |
COSTUME DESIGN
| 1. Elvis (Warner Bros) – BAFTA, CDG, CCA Catherine Martin |
| 2. Black Panther: Wakanda Forever (Walt Disney/Marvel Studios) – BAFTA longlist, CDG, CCA Ruth E. Carter |
| 3. Babylon (Paramount Pictures) – BAFTA, CDG, CCA Mary Zophres |
| 4. Mrs. Harris Goes to Paris (Focus Features) – BAFTA, CDG Jenny Beavan |
| 5. Everything Everywhere All At Once (A24) – CDG, CCA Shirley Kurata |
ORIGINAL SCORE
| 1. Babylon (Paramount Pictures) – BAFTA, GG, CCA Justin Hurwitz |
| 2. The Fabelmans (Universal Pictures) – GG, CCA, HMMA John Williams |
| 3. All Quiet on the Western Front (Netflix) – BAFTA Volker Bertelmann |
| 4. The Banshees of Inisherin (Searchlight Pictures) – BAFTA, GG, HMMA Carter Burwell |
| 5. Everything Everywhere All At Once (A24) – BAFTA, HMMA Son Lux |
ORIGINAL SONG
| 1. “Naatu Naatu” from RRR – CCA, GG Music by M.M. Keeravaani; Lyric by Chandrabose |
| 2. “Hold My Hand” from Top Gun: Maverick – CCA, GG, HMMA Music and Lyric by Lady Gaga and BloodPop |
| 3. “This Is a Life” from Everything Everywhere All at Once – HMMA |
| 4. “Lift Me Up” from Black Panther: Wakanda Forever – CCA, GG, HMMA Music by Tems, Rihanna, Ryan Coogler and Ludwig Goransson; Lyric by Tems and Ryan Coogler |
| 5. “Applause” from Tell It Like a Woman – HMMA Music and Lyric by Diane Warren |
SOUND
| 1. Top Gun: Maverick (Paramount Pictures) – BAFTA, CAS, MPSE (2x) Mark Weingarten, James H. Mather, Al Nelson, Chris Burdon and Mark Taylor |
| 2. All Quiet on the Western Front (Netflix) – BAFTA, CAS, MPSE Viktor Prášil, Frank Kruse, Markus Stemler, Lars Ginzel and Stefan Korte |
| 3. Elvis (Warner Bros) – BAFTA, CAS, MPSE (2x) David Lee, Wayne Pashley, Andy Nelson and Michael Keller |
| 4. Avatar: The Way of Water (20th Century Studios) – BAFTA, CAS, MPSE Julian Howarth, Gwendolyn Yates Whittle, Dick Bernstein, Christopher Boyes, Gary Summers and Michael Hedges |
| 5. The Batman (Warner Bros) – CAS, MPSE (2x) Stuart Wilson, William Files, Douglas Murray and Andy Nelson |
MAKEUP AND HAIRSTYLING
| 1. The Whale (A24) – BAFTA, CCA, MUAH Adrien Morot, Judy Chin and Anne Marie Bradley |
| 2. The Batman (Warner Bros) – BAFTA, CCA, MUAH (3x) Naomi Donne, Mike Marino and Mike Fontaine |
| 3. Elvis (Warner Bros) – BAFTA, CCA, MUAH (3x) Mark Coulier, Jason Baird and Aldo Signoretti |
| 4. Black Panther: Wakanda Forever (Walt Disney/Marvel Studios) – CCA, MUAH (2x) Camille Friend and Joel Harlow |
| 5. All Quiet on the Western Front (Netflix) – BAFTA Heike Merker and Linda Eisenhamerová |
VISUAL EFFECTS
| 1. Avatar: The Way of Water (20th Century Studios) – BAFTA, CCA, VES Joe Letteri, Richard Baneham, Eric Saindon and Daniel Barrett |
| 2. Top Gun: Maverick (Paramount Pictures) – BAFTA, CCA, VES Ryan Tudhope, Seth Hill, Bryan Litson and Scott R. Fisher |
| 3. The Batman (Warner Bros) – BAFTA, CCA, VES Dan Lemmon, Russell Earl, Anders Langlands and Dominic Tuohy |
| 4. All Quiet on the Western Front (Netflix) – BAFTA Frank Petzold, Viktor Müller, Markus Frank and Kamil Jafar |
| 5. Black Panther: Wakanda Forever (Walt Disney/Marvel Studios) – CCA Geoffrey Baumann, Craig Hammack, R. Christopher White and Dan Sudick |
ANIMATED FEATURE
| 1. Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio (Netflix) – Annie, BAFTA, CCA, GG, PGA Guillermo del Toro, Mark Gustafson, Gary Ungar and Alex Bulkley |
| 2. Marcel the Shell with Shoes On (A24) – Annie, BAFTA, CCA, GG, PGA Dean Fleischer Camp, Elisabeth Holm, Andrew Goldman, Caroline Kaplan and Paul Mezey |
| 3. Puss in Boots: The Last Wish (DreamWorks/Universal) – Annie, BAFTA, CCA, GG, PGA Joel Crawford and Mark Swift |
| 4. Turning Red (Walt Disney/Pixar) – Annie, BAFTA, CCA, GG, PGA Domee Shi and Lindsey Collins |
| 5. The Sea Beast (Netflix) – Annie Chris Williams and Jed Schlanger |
DOCUMENTARY FEATURE
| 1. Fire of Love (NatGeo/NEON)– BAFTA, CCA, CEH, IDA, PGA Sara Dosa, Shane Boris and Ina Fichman |
| 2. Navalny (CNN) – BAFTA, CCA, CEH, IDA, PGA Daniel Roher, Odessa Rae, Diane Becker, Melanie Miller and Shane Boris |
| 3. All the Beauty and the Bloodshed (NEON) – BAFTA, CEH, IDA Laura Poitras, Howard Gertler, John Lyons, Nan Goldin and Yoni Golijov |
| 4. All That Breathes – BAFTA, CEH, IDA, PGA Shaunak Sen, Aman Mann and Teddy Leifer |
| 5. A House Made of Splinters Simon Lereng Wilmont and Monica Hellström |
INTERNATIONAL FEATURE FILM
| 1. Germany, All Quiet on the Western Front (Netflix) – BAFTA, CCA, GG |
| 2. Belgium, Close (A24) – CCA, GG |
| 3. Ireland, The Quiet Girl (Super/NEON) – BAFTA |
| 4. Argentina, Argentina, 1985 (Amazon Studios) – BAFTA, CCA, GG |
| 5. Poland, EO (JanusFilms/Sideshow) |
ANIMATED SHORT FILM
| 1. The Boy, the Mole, the Fox and the Horse Charlie Mackesy and Matthew Freud |
| 2. An Ostrich Told Me the World Is Fake and I Think I Believe It Lachlan Pendragon |
| 3. The Flying Sailor Amanda Forbis and Wendy Tilby |
| 4. My Year of Dicks Sara Gunnarsdóttir and Pamela Ribon |
| 5. Ice Merchants João Gonzalez and Bruno Caetano |
DOCUMENTARY SHORT FILM
| 1. Stranger at the Gate Joshua Seftel and Conall Jones |
| 2. How Do You Measure a Year? Jay Rosenblatt |
| 3. The Elephant Whisperers Kartiki Gonsalves and Guneet Monga |
| 4. The Martha Mitchell Effect Anne Alvergue and Beth Levison |
| 5. Haulout Evgenia Arbugaeva and Maxim Arbugaev |
LIVE ACTION SHORT FILM
| 1. Le Pupille Alice Rohrwacher and Alfonso Cuarón |
| 2. Night Ride Eirik Tveiten and Gaute Lid Larssen |
| 3. The Red Suitcase Cyrus Neshvad |
| 4. An Irish Goodbye Tom Berkeley and Ross White |
| 5. Ivalu Anders Walter and Rebecca Pruzan |
He is a Rotten Tomatoes-approved critic, accredited by the Cannes Film Festival, Telluride Film Festival, Toronto International Film Festival and more, is a member of the International Cinephile Society (ICS), The Society of LGBTQ Entertainment Critics (GALECA), Hollywood Critics Association (HCA) and the International Press Academy. Among his many achieved goals with AwardsWatch, he has given a platform to underrepresented writers and critics and supplied them with access to film festivals and the industry and calls the Bay Area his home where he lives with his husband and son.
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