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Tue. Feb 18th, 2020

American Cinema Editors (ACE) and Producers Guild (PGA) Preview and Predictions

The ACE Eddies, the American Cinema Editors awards, are tonight and the Producers Guild of America will hand out its Best Picture prize tomorrow night. It’s time for a preview and predictions for both.

Let’s start with the American Cinema Editors, aka the ACE Eddies. Broken into two categories, drama and comedy or musical, all Film Editing Oscar nominees are represented here with four in drama (Ford v Ferrari, The Irishman, Joker and Parasite) and one in comedy or musical (Jojo Rabbit). The drama side seems a bit more of an open race with Ford v Ferrari out just a bit ahead. The Irishman and Joker have both performed phenomenally with the guilds but can they win? Marriage Story isn’t nominated for the Oscar and doesn’t really have a shot here. Parasite winning here would be huge, and it’s not impossible. Not likely, but not impossible.

Once Upon a Time in Hollywood, which is nominated for ACE in comedy, did not get an Oscar nomination but it’s not entirely out of the race there. Its snub at the Oscars was seen as a big surprise and the film editors guild may go for it anyway. Only one time has the ACE Eddie winner for comedy or musical, which was created in 2000 when the guild split into two categories, went on to win the Oscar and that 2002’s Chicago. I think ACE will break for Jojo Rabbit here but don’t discount a Once upset.

The 2020 ACE Eddie Awards will be held tonight, January 17, at the Beverly Hilton in Beverly Hills where special honorees include Lauren Shuler Donner, Alan Heim & Tina Hirsch and Cathy Ripola.

Here are my ACE Eddie predictions for Drama, Comedy or Musical, Animated Feature and Documentary Feature.

BEST EDITED FEATURE FILM (DRAMA)

Ford v Ferrari – PREDICTION
Michael McCusker, Andrew Buckland

The Irishman
Thelma Schoonmaker

Joker
Jeff Groth

Marriage Story
Jennifer Lame

Parasite
Jinmo Yang

BEST EDITED FEATURE FILM (COMEDY):

Dolemite Is My Name
Billy Fox

The Farewell
Michael Taylor, Matthew Friedman

Jojo Rabbit – PREDICTION
Tom Eagles

Knives Out
Bob Ducsay

Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
Fred Raskin

BEST EDITED ANIMATED FEATURE FILM:

Frozen 2
Jeff Draheim

I Lost My Body
Benjamin Massoubre

Toy Story 4 – PREDICTION
Axel Geddes

BEST EDITED DOCUMENTARY (FEATURE):

American Factory
Lindsay Utz

Apollo 11 – PREDICTION
Todd Douglas Miller

Linda Ronstadt: The Sound of My Voice
Jake Pushinsky, Heidi Scharfe

Making Waves: The Art of Cinematic Sound
David J. Turner, Thomas G. Miller


The Producers Guild (PGA) is the only group that has a preferential ballot that mirrors Oscars’ Best Picture voting. Because of that we often look at the PGA as the closest we have to a solid Oscar predictor. After all, Green Book triumphed here last year on its way to a Best Picture win over Roma. It also showed us that The Shape of Water was ahead of Three Billboards and that Birdman was really the frontrunner and not Boyhood. PGA isn’t always ‘right’ though; they went for The Big Short over Spotlight, La La Land over Moonlight.

This year the PGA nominees (which always has a solid 10) and Oscar nominees (which varies, this year is nine) line up exactly with the exception of Knives Out benefitting from the PGA’s ten slots. So we have 1917, Ford v Ferrari, The Irishman, Jojo Rabbit, Joker, Little Women, Marriage Story, Once Upon a Time in Hollywood and Parasite.

We can probably drop Ford v Ferrari, Little Women and Marriage Story. None have corresponding DGA, BAFTA or director Oscar nominations. The Irishman, while a nomination behemoth, hasn’t been able to pull off any significant wins. Jojo Rabbit and Joker would be the next on the cusp with Joker ahead after a near perfect guild run and a field best 11 Oscar nominations. It’s kind of a secret spoiler here with that $1B dollar haul and you’d have to be a clown to count it out. That said, it leaves us with the only three films to have won a major Best Picture prize so far: 1917 (Golden Globe – Drama), Once Upon a Time in Hollywood (Golden Globe – Comedy/Musical and Critics Choice) and Parasite (Golden Globe and Critics Choice – Foreign Language Film). This is a tighter race than you’d think. The late surge of 1917 is remarkable and can’t be underestimated. Once has bonafides. Parasite would be a bold choice, to be sure, no Foreign Language Film has ever won here but it has something that Roma didn’t last year – passion. Roma was respected but that’s not passion. Parasite is the the biggest critical hit of the year and a massive box office hit worldwide (and even in the US). I just wonder if it has the stamina on a preferential ballot after those #1s are counted.

YEARPGAOSCAR
2010The King’s SpeechThe King’s Speech
2011The ArtistThe Artist
2012ArgoArgo
2013Gravity/12 Years a Slave12 Years a Slave
2014BirdmanBirdman
2015The Big ShortSpotlight
2016La La LandMoonlight
2017The Shape of WaterThe Shape of Water
2018Green BookGreen Book

The 31st Producers Guild of America (PGA) awards will be held Saturday, January 18 at the Hollywood Palladium in Hollywood.

My prediction for the Darryl F. Zanuck Award for Outstanding Producer of Theatrical Motion Pictures for 2019 is Once Upon a Time in Hollywood but I won’t be surprised if 1917 takes it or we see a huge shock from Parasite.

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