Box Office Analysis (Jan. 31-Feb. 2) – ‘Bad Boys 3’-peats over quiet Super Bowl weekend

For a third weekend in a row, Bad Boys for Life was the top movie at the weekend box office, dropping -48% to a $17.7 million weekend gross for a $148.1 million total. That officially puts the film past the Paul Blart: Mall Cop to make the threequel the highest grossing January release of all time, after only 17 days in release. Birds of Prey will likely deliver a hit to the film next weekend as another R-rated action flick, but the film should be safe for at least a $180 million total.

There were also threepeats in the #2 and #3 slots this weekend, as Universal releases 1917 and Dolittle held strong, with $9.7 million (-39%) and $7.7 million (-37%) weekend grosses respectively. 1917 current domestic total stands at $119.2 million, pushing it past Ford v Ferrari to be the third highest grossing Best Picture nominee of the year, behind only Joker and Once Upon a Time in Hollywood. If it wins Best Picture next weekend, it will be the first time in the expanded Best Picture era that a winner was among the top 3 highest grossing nominees of the year (not counting overseas grosses).

The weekend’s top debut, Gretel & Hansel barely came in at #4, with an estimated $6.05 million weekend gross that puts it only $40,000 above The Gentleman and $50,000 above Jumanji: The Next Level, so rankings could easily swap when the final numbers are in tomorrow. The Super Bowl weekend has typically been a dumping ground for horror films a studio is unsure of, but even by those standards Gretel had a subpar opening, coming in below recent Super Bowl weekend openers like 2018’s Winchester ($9.3 million) and 2017’s Rings ($13 million). The opening also continues a cold streak for horror films this season, following the disappointing starts for The Grudge and The Turning. While Gretel avoided the ‘F’ Cinemascores that those films received, its ‘C-‘ score isn’t much better. Expect a quick dropoff for a final total around $13 million.

The weekend’s one other wide release, The Rhythm Section, proved to be a record-breaker in a manner that distributor Paramount would have rather avoided. With a $2.8 million opening in 3,049 theaters, it now owns the record for worst opening weekend for a film in over 3,000 theaters – a record that has stood for nearly 13 years, held by 2007’s Hoot. Rhythm Section was moved around the schedule for a while, originally scheduled for a release in February 2019 before being moved to November 2019 and finally landing here at the tail end of January 2020. The film’s reviews (33% on Rotten Tomatoes, 44 on Metacritic) and Cinemascore (C+) give a solid indication as to why that was the case. With such a dire start and per-theater-average (it is also the first 3,000+ theater release to have a PTA below $1,000), the film will shed theaters quite quickly, and finish with a dire $5 million total.

With the Oscars only one weekend away, the Best Picture nominees still in theaters continued to have solid runs, with Little Women ($3 million, -35%) only $1.3 million away from becoming the fifth Picture nominee to cross the $100 million mark, and Jojo Rabbit ($1.35 million, -4%) having easily the best weekend hold of any wide release. And despite being released on DVD and Blu-Ray this past Tuesday, Parasite managed to drop only -18% this weekend to $1.6 million, bringing its 17-week domestic total to $33.4 million. That pus the film past The Pianist to become the 6th biggest Palme D’Or winner of all time in America, and past Amelie to become the 6th biggest foreign language film of all time in America.

1. Bad Boys for Life – $17.7 million (-48%)
2. 1917 – $9.7 million (-39%)
3. Dolittle – $7.7 million (-37%)
4. Gretel & Hansel – $6.05 million (NEW)
5. The Gentlemen – $6 million (-44%)
6. Jumanji: The Next Level – $6 million (-22%)
7. Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker – $3.2 million (-43%)
8. The Turning – $3 million (-56%)
9. Little Women – $3 million (-35%)
10. The Rhythm Section – $2.8 million (NEW)