Critics’ Choice, Golden Globe and SAG – These Actors are on the Path to Oscar

With the SAG, Golden Globe and Critics’ Choice nominations out now we turn to ‘Who Has What?’ in the hunt for an acting Oscar nomination. This year, 16 performers have captured all three precursor nominations but as we often see, at least one of these names stands a chance of being the season’s major snub. We just saw it happen in January when Amy Adams (Arrival) was denied an Oscar nomination after receiving all precursors (including BAFTA) in a film that had 8 nominations overall, including Best Picture and Best Director (and won Sound Editing). She’s not alone though; in the past four years seven other high-profile actors (including Oscar winners) have been snubbed: Helen Mirren (Trumbo) and Michael Shannon (99 Homes) in 2015, Jake Gyllenhaal (Nightcrawler) and Jennifer Aniston (Cake) in 2014 and Tom Hanks (Captain Phillips) and Emma Thompson (Saving Mr. Banks) in 2013.

Anything can happen in these races. No one is really safe until their name is announced on Oscar nomination morning.

BEST ACTOR
Timothee Chalamet, Call Me By Your Name (Drama at Golden Globes)
James Franco, The Disaster Artist (Comedy/Musical at Golden Globes)
Daniel Kaluuya, Get Out (Comedy/Musical at Golden Globes)
Gary Oldman, Darkest Hour (Drama at Golden Globes)

All four actors are in our Top 5 with Golden Globe and Critics’ Choice nominee Daniel Day-Lewis (Phantom Thread) rounding out the group. Day-Lewis didn’t get in for SAG for his late December film. Tom Hanks (The Post) has Globe and Critics’ Choice nominations but as a previous snubbee, how are his chances, really? The one to watch out for is SAG and Golden Globe nominee Denzel Washington in Roman J. Israel, Esq., who could upset someone’s shot here.

BEST ACTRESS
Sally Hawkins, The Shape of Water (Drama at Golden Globes)
Frances McDormand, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri (Drama at Golden Globes)
Margot Robbie, I, Tonya (Comedy/Musical at Golden Globes)
Saoirse Ronan, Lady Bird (Comedy/Musical at Golden Globes)

All four actresses are in our Top 5 with Golden Globe and Critics’ Choice nominee Meryl Streep (The Post) rounding out the group. Streep didn’t get in for SAG for her late December film. Oscar-winner Judi Dench (Victoria and Abdul) has SAG and Golden Globe nominations and is a major spoiler here. While Streep seems the most obvious choice here, and in such a politically charged year, is there a chance the three-time Oscar winner and 20-time nominee is actually snubbed?

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
Willem Dafoe, The Florida Project
Richard Jenkins, The Shape of Water
Sam Rockwell, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri

All three actors are in our Top 5 with Armie Hammer and Michael Stuhlbarg (Call Me By Your Name) rounding out the group. Only Hammer received a Globe nomination; neither received SAG. This opens the door in this category quite a bit for strong challengers like Woody Harrelson (Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri – SAG nom) and Christopher Plummer (All the Money in the World – Globe nom). Someone to watch out for though is Michael Shannon (The Shape of Water). He has two Oscar nominations under this belt and just this year made it in with zero precursors and beat out his supporting co-star who was nominated and won the Globe. If I was Richard Jenkins I’d be a little nervous.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Mary J. Blige, Mudbound
Hong Chau, Downsizing
Allison Janney, I, Tonya
Laurie Metcalf, Lady Bird

We have three of these four actresses in our Top 5, with Hong Chau just outside at #6. Holly Hunter (The Big Sick) missed SAG but has Golden Globe and Critics’ Choice nominations and is a former Oscar winner and multi-nominee. She could easily finish this list.

Who do you think is getting in and who’s getting snubbed? Stay tuned for the next round of ‘Who Has What?’ once the BAFTA nominations are announced on January 11th.