Emmy Analysis: Writing of a Comedy and Drama Series (Louie, Veep, Breaking Bad, Game of Thrones)

Our Emmy Expert Nicol has his analysis of the series writing categories and who he thinks is going to win. Comedy seems to be a good battle between Veep, Orange is the New Black and Louie while Drama appears to be between Breaking Bad and…Breaking Bad. Don’t forget to visit Nicol’s website Back to the Frying Pan for extra awards insight.

Louis C.K. was the frontrunner in this category for a long time now, but it seemed like “So Did the Fat Lady” lost quite its buzz after Sarah Baker’s exclusion in the Guest Actress category and from Louie’s six-episode submission this year. While I don’t think it’s necessarily wise to exclude Louis C.K. here especially after his win two years ago, he’s no sure thing either. Silicon Valley manages to get in for its season finale with the very witty masturbation joke but I think this type of cool jokes doesn’t end with wins but simply with nominations (see: Community’s nod two years ago). Episodes seem to have its core fans in the writing branch as it’s 3/3 so far getting in here for all its eligible season. Thus, I won’t be surprised if they suddenly give it a win. But then again, maybe it’s just a show they love to nominate and not give wins with. After submitting a lot this year, predicting Veep for either writing or directing seemed unwise, but the fact that they manage to nab one here indicates a really strong support for the show. Lastly, pilots are like instant Emmy baits for writers, and Orange is the New Black’s lauded series opener is very much a spoiler here. If they really love the show, I won’t be shocked if this gets carried to a win as well But for now, I’m leaning on the hip semi-Emmy favorite who’s on an onward trajectory with Emmy love so I’m going with Veep’s “Special Relationship” to win.

Prediction: Veep, “Special Relationship“
Alternate: Orange is the New Black, “I Wasn’t Ready“

Full Rankings:
01. Veep, “Special Relationship“
02. Orange is the New Black, “I Wasn’t Ready“
03. Louie, “So Did the Fat Lady“
04. Silicon Valley, “Optical Tip-to-Tip Efficiency“
05. Episodes, “Episode Five“

As for their dramatic counterpart, it’s such a surprise to find out that Breaking Bad hasn’t won in this category yet, but they have two contenders here to change their fate. First, they have “Ozymandias,” which is probably the most lauded episode in the show’s history and such a tour de force hour in television. And then, they also have the series finale “Felina” written by Vince Gilligan. In the same manner that series pilots are very baity to reward, the same can be said for series finales (see: Friday Night Light’s upset win here for its finale in 2011). While it seems more logical that they get rewarded for their direction, Game of Thrones continue to rake in nomination for its writing instead. The season finale “The Children” is their nominated episode this year; however, if their previous event episodes the past season like “Baelor” and “The Rains of Castamere” wasn’t able to factor in, I don’t think it will be any different this year. True Detective only is eligible for one episode this year, but they managed to submit their best written episode, and if voters don’t really like to reward Breaking Bad here, I think this is the show that will benefit from that the most. To complete the nominees, we have the season opener of House of Cards which contained a big shocker in the middle of the episode. In the end, I think we’re bound to see a Breaking Bad writing win in play, so it’s between its two nominated episodes already. While “Ozymandias” is the more popular choice among the internet community, I don’t think they can resist the chance of awarding showrunner Vince Gilligan an Emmy here, so I say “Felina” wins in the end.

Prediction: Breaking Bad, “Felina“
Alternate: Breaking Bad, “Ozymandias“

Full Rankings:
01. Breaking Bad, “Felina“
02. Breaking Bad, “Ozymandias“
03. True Detective, “The Secret Fate of All Life“
04. House of Cards, “Chapter 14“
05. Game of Thrones, “The Children“