Emmy Predictions: Drama Series categories (June)

Wouldn’t you know it, right in the middle of my Emmy predictions, the Television Academy goes and changes the rules again. No bother, really, since I list my ranked predictions as a top 10.

But here’s the scoop from late last night. The Television Academy has expanded both the Comedy and Drama Series categories to eight nominees regardless of number of submissions. For the acting categories, however, it will be a sliding scale based on total submissions (see below).

1-19 submissions: A sliding scale between zero to 4 nominations
20-80 submissions: 5 nominations
81-160 submissions: 6 nominations
161-240 submissions: 7 nominations
> 240 submissions: 8 nominations

Based on last year’s submission totals Drama Lead Actor and Actress both would have 6 nominees each, while the supporting categories would have had eight. Chances are it will look like that this year, barring a huge avalanche of extra submissions in hopes of pushing that total up to eight across the acting board. It seems extremely unlikely in the lead categories, all of which would have to double or even triple (in the case of Drama Lead Actress) in order hit that mark. One thing we will see, however, is parity between the paired races.

Emmy Predictions: Comedy Series categories (June)

So, who’s ahead this month in the Drama categories? There won’t be much difference from last month with Succession, Ozark and The Crown definitely ahead of the pack. But, with a flat eight nominees now in the top category, it’s those lingering near the bottom that will be putting up a fight, including hopeful returning shows like Pose, This Is Us and Stranger Things. They’ll battle new shows like The Morning Show and Big Little Lies, which moves to Drama from Limited Series this year. Don’t get too wrapped up in the Twitter-sphere about the third seasons of Killing Eve and Westworld being subpar, Emmy voters might not agree. Just look at the Emmy record-breaking final season of Game of Thrones.

Here are my ranked predictions in the Drama Series categories in order of likelihood for June.

DRAMA SERIES

01. Succession (HBO)
02. Ozark (Netflix)
03. The Crown (Netflix)
04. The Handmaid’s Tale (Hulu)
05. Better Call Saul (AMC)
06. Big Little Lies (HBO)
07. The Morning Show (Apple TV+)
08. Killing Eve (BBC America)

09. Westworld (HBO)
10. Pose (FX)

Watch out for: The Mandalorian (Disney+), Stranger Things (Netflix), This Is Us (NBC)

LEAD ACTOR – DRAMA SERIES

01. Brian Cox – Succession (HBO)
02. Jason Bateman – Ozark (Netflix)
03. Bob Odenkirk – Better Call Saul (AMC)
04. Billy Porter – Pose (FX)
05. Sterling K. Brown – This Is Us (NBC)
06. Tobias Menzies – The Crown (Netflix)
07. Jeremy Strong – Succession (HBO)
08. Milo Ventimiglia – This Is Us (NBC)
09. Al Pacino – Hunters (Amazon)
10. Steve Carell – The Morning Show (Apple TV+)

Watch out for: Justin Hartley – This Is Us (NBC), Rami Malek – Mr. Robot (USA), Ben Mendelsohn – The Outsider (HBO)

LEAD ACTRESS – DRAMA SERIES

01. Laura Linney – Ozark (Netflix)
02. Olivia Colman – The Crown (Netflix)
03. Jennifer Aniston – The Morning Show (Apple TV+)
04. Elisabeth Moss – The Handmaid’s Tale (Hulu)
05. Jodie Comer – Killing Eve (BBC America)
06. Nicole Kidman – Big Little Lies (HBO)
07. Viola Davis – How to Get Away With Murder (ABC)
08. Sandra Oh – Killing Eve (BBC America)
09. Evan Rachel Wood – Westworld (HBO)
10. Reese Witherspoon – The Morning Show (Apple TV+)

Watch out for: Christine Baranski – The Good Fight (CBS All Access), Claire Danes – Homeland (Showtime), Zendaya – Euphoria (HBO)

SUPPORTING ACTOR – DRAMA SERIES

01. Tom Pelphrey – Ozark (Netflix)
02. Billy Crudup – The Morning Show (Apple TV+)
03. Bradley Whitford – The Handmaid’s Tale (Hulu)
04. Jonathan Banks – Better Caul Saul (AMC)
05. Josh O’Connor – The Crown (Netflix)
06. Kieran Culkin – Succession (HBO)
07. Giancarlo Esposito – Better Caul Saul (AMC)
08. Matthew Macfadyen – Succession (HBO)
09. Mandy Patinkin – Homeland (Showtime)
10. David Harbour – Stranger Things (Netflix)

Watch out for: Asia Kate Dillon – Billions (Showtime), Joseph Fiennes – The Handmaid’s Tale (Hulu) Jeffrey Wright – Westworld (HBO)

SUPPORTING ACTRESS – DRAMA SERIES

01. Helena Bonham Carter – The Crown (Netflix)
02. Julia Garner – Ozark (Netflix)
03. Meryl Streep – Big Little Lies (HBO)
04. Laura Dern – Big Little Lies (HBO)
05. Janet McTeer – Ozark (Netflix)
06. Sarah Snook – Succession (HBO)
07. Thandie Newton – Westworld (HBO)
08. Fiona Shaw – Killing Eve (BBC America)
09. Ann Dowd – The Handmaid’s Tale (Hulu)
10. Rhea Seehorn – Better Caul Saul (AMC)

Watch out for: Cynthia Erivo – The Outsider (HBO), Gugu Mbatha-Raw – The Morning Show (Apple TV+), Yvonne Strahovski – The Handmaid’s Tale (Hulu)