FINAL 2021 Emmy Nomination Predictions: Expect big numbers for ‘The Crown,’ ‘I May Destroy You,’ The Underground Railroad,’ ‘Hacks’ and more

Yeah, it seems like the Oscars just ended a minute ago…because they kinda did. The extended Oscar season gave us no break and we jumped right into Emmy season without a blink or a breath. But here we are, just days away from the Primetime Emmy nominations.

Taking a look at the final Emmy predictions between myself and AwardsWatch TV Awards Editor Tyler Doster, and going over our video podcast predictions, we aligned, eerily, on quite a few things. Is it because there are fewer eligible shows this season and buzz has focused around seemingly just a few? I think that’s part of it. Like with the Oscars, without the benefit of face to face conversations with voters and rubbing elbows with stars as everyone pounds back free booze and finger foods, we start looking to voters’ social media and who they’re vocally supporting. It’s a small element but a piece of the puzzle nonetheless.

While it seemed like we all did nothing but consume massive amounts of television during 2020 and the first half of 2021, we ended up with fewer slots this year than last, with some back down to just five, including Outstanding Comedy Series and Outstanding Lead Actress in a Comedy Series.

Much of the conversation revolves around just three shows: Ted Lasso from Apple TV+ and Hacks and The Flight Attendant, both from HBO Max. Each are expected to rack up a boatload of nominations and in the case of Ted Lasso, two or three in the supporting categories. Based on submission numbers we’ll only see five spots in the lead and guest acting categories.

But several shows could also find themselves with strong numbers on nomination morning including Hulu’s Pen15, Netflix’s The Kominsky Method and even a bit of a comeback for network television with ABC’s black-ish, plus Kenan and Mr. Mayor from NBC.

There are three dramas that seem poised to really dominate the Emmy nominations when they’re announced on Tuesday, July 13 and they are: Netflix’s The Crown, Hulu’s The Handmaid’s Tale and The Mandalorian from Disney+. Both Tyler and I are expecting huge numbers from these shows in writing, directing and acting, with the first two possibly set to utterly dominated supporting actress.

For Limited Series, whether it’s The Queen’s Gambit, Small Axe, The Underground Railroad, WandaVision or Mare of Easttown, this season has been about sole showrunner vision. The Limited Series categories are some of the most competitive and by far the most interesting sections of the Emmys this year. While the Television Academy expanded the Drama and Comedy series and acting categories, Limited Series stayed the same with just five nominee slots for program and lead acting.

With the Emmy sliding scale of number of nominees based on submissions in full swing, that effect is made clear in the drama categories which see some with six, some with seven and supporting acting getting a whopping eight each (due to the parity rule).

With so few other returning shows due to COVID-related delays, we’re also going to see an influx of new dramas like Amazon Prime Video’s The Boys, HBO’s (now canceled) Lovecraft Country and Netflix’s Bridgerton all staking claims are major Emmy nominations. We’ll also see the farewell of FX’s Pose (can they finally get an acting nomination outside of Billy Porter?) and several Apple TV+ hopefuls searching for a spots.

Nominations for the 73rd Primetime Emmy Awards will be announced by father/daughter Emmy winners Ron Cephas Jones and Jasmine Cephas Jones on Tuesday, July 13 at 8:30am PT live at emmys.com. The 73rd Primetime Emmy Awards will be broadcast live Sunday, Sept. 19 (8:00-11:00pm, EDT/5:00-8:00pm, PDT) on the CBS Television Network and available to stream live and on demand on Paramount+.

Here are the final Emmy nomination predictions from myself and Tyler Doster, in no particular order. Who do you agree with more? Who do you think is getting in and who is getting snubbed?

Outstanding Comedy Series (8)

• Ted Lasso (Apple TV+) – Erik, Tyler
• Hacks (HBO Max) – Erik, Tyler
• Pen15 (Hulu) – Erik, Tyler
• The Flight Attendant (HBO Max) – Erik, Tyler
• black-ish (ABC) – Erik, Tyler
• The Kominsky Method (Netflix) – Erik, Tyler
• Zoey’s Extraordinary Playlist (NBC) – Erik, Tyler

• Girls5Eva (Peacock) – Tyler
• Mythic Quest (Apple TV+) – Erik

Spoilers: Cobra Kai (Netflix), Dickinson (Apple TV+), Superstore (NBC)

Outstanding Lead Actor in a Comedy Series (5)

• Jason Sudeikis, Ted Lasso­ (Apple TV+) – Erik, Tyler
• Michael Douglas, The Kominsky Method (Netflix) – Erik, Tyler
• Anthony Anderson, black-ish (ABC) – Erik, Tyler
• Kenan Thompson, Kenan (NBC) – Erik, Tyler

• Ted Danson, Mr. Mayor (NBC) – Erik
• William H. Macy, Shameless (Showtime) – Tyler

Spoilers: Ralph Macchio, Cobra Kai (Netflix); Rob McElhenney, Mythic Quest (Apple TV+); William Zabka, Cobra Kai (Netflix)

Outstanding Lead Actress in a Comedy Series (5)

• Jean Smart, Hacks (HBO Max) – Erik, Tyler
• Kaley Cuoco, The Flight Attendant (HBO Max) – Erik, Tyler
• Tracee Ellis Ross, black-ish (ABC) – Erik, Tyler
• Jane Levy, Zoey’s Extraordinary Playlist (NBC) – Erik, Tyler
• Maya Erskine, Pen15 (Hulu) – Erik, Tyler

Spoilers: Renée Elise Goldsberry, Girls5Eva (Peacock); Anna Konkle, Pen15 (Hulu); Allison Janney, Mom (CBS)

Outstanding Supporting Actor in a Comedy Series (7)

• Kenan Thompson, Saturday Night Live (NBC) – Erik, Tyler
• Brett Goldstein, Ted Lasso (Apple TV+) – Erik, Tyler
• Brendan Hunt, Ted Lasso (Apple TV+) – Erik, Tyler
• Bowen Yang, Saturday Night Live (NBC) – Erik, Tyler
• Alex Newell, Zoey’s Extraordinary Playlist (NBC) – Erik, Tyler
• Nick Mohammed, Ted Lasso (Apple TV+) – Erik, Tyler

• Michiel Huisman, The Flight Attendant (HBO Max)– Erik
• Ray Romano, Made For Love (HBO Max)– Tyler

Spoilers: Paul Reiser, The Kominsky Method (Netflix); Jeremy Swift, Ted Lasso (Apple TV+); Laurence Fishburne, black-ish (ABC)

Outstanding Supporting Actress in a Comedy Series (7)

• Hannah Waddingham, Ted Lasso (Apple TV+) – Erik, Tyler
• Kate McKinnon, Saturday Night Live (NBC) – Erik, Tyler
• Hannah Einbinder, Hacks (HBO Max) – Erik, Tyler
• Rosie Perez, The Flight Attendant (HBO Max)– Erik, Tyler
• Cecily Strong, Saturday Night Live (NBC) – Erik, Tyler

• Juno Temple, Ted Lasso (Apple TV+) – Erik
• Kathleen Turner, The Kominsky Method (Netflix) – Erik
• Busy Phillips, Girls5Eva (Peacock)– Tyler
• Paula Pell, Girls5Eva (Peacock) – Tyler

Spoilers: Naomi Ackie, Master of None (Netflix); Zosia Mamet, The Flight Attendant (HBO Max); Bette Midler, The Politician (Netflix)

Outstanding Guest Actor in a Comedy (5)

• Dave Chappelle, Saturday Night Live (NBC) – Erik, Tyler
• Morgan Freeman, The Kominsky Method (Netflix) – Erik, Tyler

• Daniel Kaluuya, Saturday Night Live (Netflix) – Erik
• Anthony Head, Ted Lasso (Apple TV+) – Erik
• Regé-Jean Page, Saturday Night Live (NBC) – Erik
• Dan Levy, Saturday Night Live (NBC) – Tyler
• Chris Rock, Saturday Night Live (NBC) – Tyler
• Bowen Yang, Girls5Eva (Peacock) – Tyler

Spoilers: Alec Baldwin, Saturday Night Live (NBC); Jim Carrey, Saturday Night Live (NBC); Stephen Colbert, Girls5Eva (Peacock)

Outstanding Guest Actress in a Comedy (5)

• Issa Rae, A Black Lady Sketch Show (HBO Max) – Erik, Tyler
• Tina Fey, Girls5Eva (Peacock) – Erik, Tyler
• Maya Rudolph, Saturday Night Live (NBC) – Erik, Tyler
• Anya Taylor-Joy, Saturday Night Live (NBC) – Erik, Tyler

• Andrea Anders, Ted Lasso (Apple TV+) – Erik
• America Ferrera, Superstore (NBC) – Tyler

Spoilers: Bernadette Peters, Zoey’s Extraordinary Playlist (NBC) ; Susan Sarandon, Search Party (HBO Max); Vanessa Williams, Girls5Eva (Peacock)

Outstanding Writing for a Comedy Series (6)

• “Make Rebecca Great Again,” Ted Lasso (Apple TV+) – Erik, Tyler
• “Pilot,” Ted Lasso (Apple TV+) – Erik, Tyler
• “There is No Line (Pilot),” Hacks (HBO Max) – Erik, Tyler
• “In Case of Emergency (Pilot),” The Flight Attendant (HBO Max) – Erik, Tyler
• “Play,” Pen15 (Hulu) – Erik, Tyler

• “Backstory!,” Mythic Quest (Apple TV+) – Erik
• “Vendy Wiccany,” Pen15 (Hulu) – Tyler

Spoilers: “Pilot,” Girls5Eva (Peacock); “Moments in Love: Chapter Four,” Master of None (Netflix); “Let’s Meet,” Made for Love (HBO Max)

Outstanding Directing for a Comedy Series (6)

• “Biscuits,” Ted Lasso (Apple TV+) – Erik, Tyler
• “Make Rebecca Great Again,” Ted Lasso (Apple TV+)– Erik, Tyler
• “There is No Line (Pilot),” Hacks (HBO Max) – Erik, Tyler
• “In Case of Emergency (Pilot),” The Flight Attendant (HBO Max) – Erik, Tyler

• “Pilot,” B-Positive (CBS) – Erik
• “The Hope That Kills You,” Ted Lasso (Apple TV+) – Erik
• “#RichDadWokeDad,” Dad Stop Embarrassing Me! (Netflix) – Tyler
• “Opening Night,” Pen15 (Hulu) – Tyler

Spoilers: “Pilot,” Girls5Eva (Peacock); “Backstory!,” Mythic Quest (Apple TV+); “Essential,” Superstore (NBC)

Outstanding Drama Series (8)

• The Crown (Netflix) – Erik, Tyler
• The Handmaid’s Tale (Hulu) – Erik, Tyler
• The Mandalorian (Disney+) – Erik, Tyler
• Lovecraft Country (HBO) – Erik, Tyler
• Pose (FX) – Erik, Tyler
• This Is Us (NBC) – Erik, Tyler
• Bridgerton (Netflix) – Erik, Tyler

• The Boys (Amazon) – Erik
• Perry Mason (HBO) – Tyler

Spoilers: The Falcon and the Winter Soldier (Disney+), In Treatment (HBO Max), Yellowstone (Paramount Network)

Outstanding Lead Actor in a Drama Series (6)

• Josh O’Connor, The Crown (Netflix) – Erik, Tyler
• Regé-Jean Page, Bridgerton (Netflix) – Erik, Tyler
• Billy Porter, Pose (FX) – Erik, Tyler
• Sterling K. Brown, This Is Us (NBC) – Erik, Tyler
• Matthew Rhys, Perry Mason (HBO) – Erik, Tyler

• Antony Starr, The Boys (Amazon) – Erik
• Jonathan Majors, Lovecraft Country (HBO) – Tyler

Spoilers: Nicco Annan, P-Valley (Starz); Joseph Fiennes, The Handmaid’s Tale (Hulu); Pedro Pascal, The Mandalorian (Disney+); Milo Ventimiglia, This Is Us (NBC)

Outstanding Lead Actress in a Drama Series (6)

• Emma Corrin, The Crown (Netflix) – Erik, Tyler
• Olivia Colman, The Crown (Netflix) – Erik, Tyler
• Mj Rodriguez, Pose (FX) – Erik, Tyler
• Elisabeth Moss, The Handmaid’s Tale (Hulu) – Erik, Tyler
• Uzo Aduba, In Treatment (HBO) – Erik, Tyler
• Sarah Paulson, Ratched (Netflix) – Erik, Tyler

Spoilers: Brandee Evans, P-Valley (Starz); Jurnee Smollett, Lovecraft Country (HBO); Phoebe Dynevor, Bridgerton (Netflix)

Outstanding Supporting Actor in a Drama Series (8)

• Michael K. Williams, Lovecraft Country – Erik, Tyler
• Tobias Menzies, The Crown (Netflix) – Erik, Tyler
• Bradley Whitford, The Handmaid’s Tale (Hulu) – Erik, Tyler
• Giancarlo Esposito, The Mandalorian (Disney+) – Erik, Tyler
• Anthony Ramos, In Treatment (HBO) – Erik, Tyler
• John Benjamin Hickey, In Treatment (HBO) – Erik, Tyler
• Justin Hartley, This Is Us (NBC) – Erik, Tyler

• Jonathan Bailey, Bridgerton (Netflix) – Erik
• John Lithgow, Perry Mason (HBO) – Tyler

Spoilers: Angel Bismark Curiel, Pose (FX); Daniel Brühl, The Falcon and the Winter Soldier (Disney+); Max Minghella, The Handmaid’s Tale (Hulu)

Outstanding Supporting Actress in a Drama Series (8)

• Gillian Anderson, The Crown (Netflix) – Erik, Tyler
• Helena Bonham Carter, The Crown (Netflix) – Erik, Tyler
• Wunmi Mosaku, Lovecraft Country – Erik, Tyler
• Cynthia Nixon, Ratched (Netflix) – Erik, Tyler
• Emerald Fennell, The Crown (Netflix) – Erik, Tyler
• Yvonne Strahovski, The Handmaid’s Tale (Hulu) – Erik, Tyler
• Ann Dowd, The Handmaid’s Tale (Hulu) – Erik, Tyler
• Samira Wiley, The Handmaid’s Tale (Hulu) – Erik, Tyler

Spoilers: Madeline Brewer, The Handmaid’s Tale (Hulu); Aunjanue Ellis, Lovecraft Country (HBO); Tatiana Maslany, Perry Mason (HBO)

Outstanding Writing for a Drama Series (7)

• “War,” The Crown (Netflix) – Erik, Tyler
• “Series Finale,” Pose (FX) – Erik, Tyler
• “Home,” The Handmaid’s Tale (Hulu) – Erik, Tyler
• “Sundown,” Lovecraft Country )HBO) – Erik, Tyler
• “Diamond of the First Water,” Bridgerton (Netflix) – Erik, Tyler

• “What I Know,” The Boys (Amazon) – Erik
• “The Wilderness,” The Handmaid’s Tale (Hulu) – Erik
• “Testimony,” The Handmaid’s Tale (Hulu) – Tyler
• “Progress,” The Handmaid’s Tale (Hulu) – Tyler

Spoilers: “Jig-a-Bobo”, Lovecraft Country (HBO); “Chapter 16: The Rescue,” The Mandalorian (Disney+); “Raised by Wolves,” Raised by Wolves (HBO Max)

Outstanding Directing for a Drama Series (7)

• “War,” The Crown (Netflix) – Erik, Tyler
• “Fairytale,” The Crown (Netflix) – Erik, Tyler
• “Chapter 16: The Rescue,” The Mandalorian (Disney+) – Erik, Tyler
• “The Wilderness,” The Handmaid’s Tale (Hulu) – Erik, Tyler

• “The Bloody Doors Off,” The Boys – Erik
• “Testimony,” The Handmaid’s Tale (Hulu) – Erik
• “Chapter 9: The Marshal”, The Mandalorian (Disney+) – Erik
• “Diamond of the First Water,” Bridgerton (Netflix) – Tyler
• “Trouble Don’t Last Always,” Euphoria (HBO) – Tyler
• “Vows,” The Handmaid’s Tale (Hulu) – Tyler

Spoilers: “Perpetratin,’” P-Valley (Starz); Chapter Two,” Perry Mason (HBO); “Raised by Wolves,” Raised by Wolves (HBO Max)

Outstanding Guest Actor in a Drama (5)

• Timothy Olyphant, The Mandalorian (Disney+) – Erik, Tyler
• Charles Dance, The Crown (Netflix) – Erik, Tyler
• Bill Burr, The Mandalorian (Disney+) – Erik, Tyler

• Michael Angarano – This Is Us (NBC)– Erik
• Courtney B. Vance, Lovecraft Country (HBO) – Erik
• Tony Goldwyn, Lovecraft Country (HBO) – Tyler
• Corey Stoll, Ratched (Netflix) – Tyler

Spoilers: T.R. Knight, Grey’s Anatomy (ABC); Patrick Dempsey, Grey’s Anatomy(ABC); Mark Hamill, The Mandalorian (Disney+)

Outstanding Guest Actress in a Drama (5)

• Alexis Bledel, The Handmaid’s Tale (Hulu) – Erik, Tyler
• Mckenna Grace, The Handmaid’s Tale (Hulu) – Erik, Tyler

• Laverne Cox, The Blacklist (NBC) – Erik
• Rosario Dawson, The Mandalorian (Disney+) – Erik
• Phylicia Rashad, This Is Us (NBC) – Erik
• Claire Foy, The Crown (Netflix) – Tyler
• Julia Louis-Dreyfus, The Falcon and the Winter Soldier (Disney+) – Tyler
• Sophie Okonedo, Ratched (Netflix) – Tyler

Spoilers: Amy Sedaris, The Mandalorian (Disney+); Loretta Devine, P-Valley (Starz); Amanda Brugel, The Handmaid’s Tale (Hulu)

Outstanding Television Movie (5)

• Sylvie’s Love (Amazon) – Erik, Tyler
• Oslo (HBO) – Erik, Tyler
• Uncle Frank (Amazon) – Erik, Tyler
• Robin Roberts Presents: Mahalia (Lifetime) – Erik, Tyler

• Christmas on the Square (Netflix) – Erik
• Salt-N-Pepa (Lifetime) – Tyler

Spoilers: The Wendy Williams Story (Lifetime); Books of Blood (Hulu); Unpregnant (HBO Max)

Outstanding Limited or Anthology Series (5)

• Mare of Easttown (HBO) – Erik, Tyler
• The Underground Railroad (Amazon) – Erik, Tyler
• I May Destroy You (HBO) – Erik, Tyler
• The Queen’s Gambit (Netflix) – Erik, Tyler

• WandaVision (Disney+) – Erik
• Small Axe (Amazon) – Tyler

Spoilers: It’s a Sin (HBO Max); The Good Lord Bird (Showtime), The Undoing (HBO)

Outstanding Lead Actor in a Limited or Anthology Series or Movie (5)

• Ethan Hawke, The Good Lord Bird (Showtime) – Erik, Tyler
• Joel Edgerton, The Underground Railroad (Amazon) – Erik, Tyler
• Hugh Grant, The Undoing (HBO) – Erik, Tyler

• Paul Bettany, WandaVision (Disney+) – Erik
• Chris Rock, Fargo (FX) – Erik
• Bryan Cranston, Your Honor (Showtime) – Tyler
• Jeff Daniels, The Comey Rule (Showtime) – Tyler

Spoilers: Olly Alexander, It’s a Sin (HBO Max); Lin-Manuel Miranda, Hamilton (Disney+); Ewan McGregor, Halston (Netflix)

Outstanding Lead Actress in a Limited or Anthology Series or Movie (5)

• Kate Winslet, Mare of Easttown (HBO) – Erik, Tyler
• Thuso Mbedu, The Underground Railroad (Amazon) – Erik, Tyler
• Anya Taylor-Joy, The Queen’s Gambit (Netflix) – Erik, Tyler
• Michaela Coel, I May Destroy You (HBO) – Erik, Tyler

• Elizabeth Olsen, WandaVision (Disney+) – Erik
• Nicole Kidman, The Undoing (HBO) – Tyler

Spoilers: Cynthia Erivo, Genius: Aretha (NatGeo); Kate Mara, A Teacher (FX on Hulu); Tessa Thompson, Sylvie’s Love (Amazon)

Outstanding Supporting Actor in a Limited or Anthology Series or Movie (6)

• Bill Camp, The Queen’s Gambit (Netflix) – Erik, Tyler
• William Jackson Harper, The Underground Railroad (Amazon) – Erik, Tyler
• Chase W. Dillon, The Underground Railroad (Amazon) – Erik, Tyler
• John Boyega, Small Axe (Amazon) – Erik, Tyler

• Paapa Essiedu, I May Destroy You (HBO) – Erik
• Evan Peters, Mare of Easttown (HBO) – Erik
• Daveed Diggs, The Good Lord Bird (Showtime) – Tyler
• Donald Sutherland, The Undoing (HBO) – Tyler

Spoilers: Brendan Gleeson, The Comey Rule (Showtime); Calum Scott Howells, It’s a Sin (HBO Max); Daveed Diggs, Hamilton (Disney+)

Outstanding Supporting Actress in a Limited or Anthology Series or Movie (6)

• Kathryn Hahn, WandaVision (Disney+) – Erik, Tyler
• Marielle Heller, The Queen’s Gambit (Netflix) – Erik, Tyler
• Jean Smart, Mare of Easttown (HBO) – Erik, Tyler
• Julianne Nicholson, Mare of Easttown – Erik, Tyler
• Letitia Wright, Small Axe (Amazon) – Erik, Tyler
• Weruche Opia, I May Destroy You (HBO) – Erik, Tyler

Spoilers: Teyonah Parris, WandaVision (Disney+); Renée Elise Goldsberry, Hamilton (Disney+); Phillipa Soo, Hamilton (Disney+)

Outstanding Writing for a Limited or Anthology Series or Movie (6)

• Mare of Easttown – Erik, Tyler
• The Queen’s Gambit (Netflix) – Erik, Tyler
• “Chapter 10: Mabel,” The Underground Railroad (Amazon) – Erik, Tyler
• I May Destroy You (HBO) – Erik, Tyler
• It’s a Sin (HBO Max) – Erik, Tyler

• “Mangrove,” Small Axe (Amazon) – Erik
• “Red, White and Blue,” Small Axe (Amazon) – Tyler

Spoilers: “Last Words,” The Good Lord Bird (Showtime); “Breaking the Fourth Wall,” WandaVision (Disney+); “Filmed Before a Live Studio Audience,” WandaVision (Disney+)

Outstanding Directing for a Limited or Anthology Series or Movie (6)

• The Underground Railroad (Amazon) – Erik, Tyler
• The Queen’s Gambit (Netflix) – Erik, Tyler
• Small Axe (Amazon) – Erik, Tyler
• Mare of Easttown (HBO) – Erik, Tyler
• “Ego Death,” I May Destroy You (HBO) – Erik, Tyler
• WandaVision (Disney+) – Erik, Tyler

Spoilers: Hamilton (Disney+); It’s a Sin (HBO Max); The Undoing (HBO)

Outstanding Variety Sketch Series (2)

• Saturday Night Live (NBC) – Erik, Tyler
• A Black Lady Sketch Show (HBO) – Erik, Tyler

Spoilers: The Amber Ruffin Show (Peacock), How To with John Wilson (HBO Max), Ziwe (Showtime)

Outstanding Variety Talk Series (5)

• Last Week Tonight with John Oliver (HBO) – Erik, Tyler
• Late Night with Seth Meyers (NBC) – Erik, Tyler
• Jimmy Kimmel Live! (ABC) – Erik, Tyler
• The Late Show with Stephen Colbert (CBS) – Erik, Tyler
• Full Frontal with Samantha Bee (TBS) – Erik, Tyler

Spoilers: The Daily Show with Trevor Noah (Comedy Central); Desus & Mero (Showtime); Conan (TBS)

Outstanding Competition Program (5)

• RuPaul’s Drag Race (VH1) – Erik, Tyler
• The Amazing Race (CBS) – Erik, Tyler
• The Masked Singer (NBC) – Erik, Tyler

• Nailed It! (Netflix) – Erik
• Top Chef (Bravo) – Erik
• Legendary (HBO Max) – Tyler
• The Voice (NBC) – Tyler

Spoilers: American Idol (ABC), American Ninja Warrior (NBC), The Circle (Netflix)