FINAL 2021 Oscar Nomination Predictions: BEST ACTRESS

What’s usually one of the most competitive and difficult categories to predict, Best Actress feels…closed up? Am I crazy or is it locked with Carey Mulligan (Promising Young Woman), Andra Day (The United States vs Billie Holiday), Viola Davis (Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom), Frances McDormand (Nomadland) and Vanessa Kirby (Pieces of a Woman)? I don’t think so because I believe the difference between the #5 and #6 spots here is massive.

Only Kirby and McDormand managed to pull off all four precursors in this wild year. Both Mulligan and Davis missed BAFTA, shocking to say the least even with the jury voting system. Mulligan has dominated the critics’ picks this season, as has McDormand. With Day’s surprising Golden Globe win, that put her on the must-watch list for AMPAS members and we could be looking at the first time the Best Actress category has had two Black actresses in the same year since 1973 when Cicely Tyson (Sounder) and Diana Ross (Lady Sings the Blues) were both nominated. The best bit of trivia about that? Both Ross and Day played jazz legend Billie Holiday in their films.

Once you get past this group, not a single person has more than one precursor to give them an edge. Rosamund Pike (I Care A Lot) won the Globe over Maria Bakalova (who was put in lead there for Borat but supporting everywhere else), does that make her the closest spoiler? Feels like a stretch. I’d sooner go with a SAG nominee like Amy Adams (Hillbilly Elegy) or previous winner Sophia Loren.

While Loren (Netflix’s The Life Ahead), the first acting Oscar winner for a non-English language performance (1960’s Two Women), was seemingly back in the mix for her first nomination in 56 years (which would be a record) but her chances kept fizzling out. No Golden Globe, SAG, BFCA or BAFTA nomination, not a single critics’ win. Hard to see her be able to climb out of that over this group.

In slightly better shape, and also from Netflix, is SAG nominee Amy Adams. Both Adams and Loren made the BAFTA longlist but didn’t make the final cut of the 7-12 person jury. Each have an advantage over some other longshot possibilities; Loren’s film also has an original song contender from Diane Warren that’s a sure bet for a nomination and a possible winner. Adams has co-star Glenn Close in supporting actress, who also got Globe and Critics Choice nominations, and the film is getting a makeup nomination that’s a frontrunner to win. With two other Netflix actresses already locked in the mix, it feels like a stretch to get a third, even in a season that’s been dominated by the streaming giant.

Maybe AMPAS will be adventurous and give us an exciting, left-field choice like BAFTA and DGA First Time Director nominee Radha Blank or Spirit Award nominee Sidney Flanigan, whose performance in Never Rarely Sometimes Always earned her Boston and New York critics’ wins and the most breakthrough actor wins of the season.

Here are my final 2021 Oscar nomination predictions in Best Actress.

• 1. Carey Mulligan – Promising Young Woman (Focus Features) – BFCA, GG, SAG
• 2. Andra Day – The United States vs Billie Holiday (Hulu) – BFCA, GG
• 3. Viola Davis – Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (Netflix) – GG, SAG
• 4. Frances McDormand – Nomadland (Searchlight Pictures) – BAFTA, GG, SAG
• 5. Vanessa Kirby – Pieces of a Woman (Netflix) – BAFTA, GG, SAG

Watch out for: Sidney Flanigan – Never Rarely Sometimes Ever (Focus Features)

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Erik Anderson

Erik Anderson is the founder/owner and Editor-in-Chief of AwardsWatch and has always loved all things Oscar, having watched the Academy Awards since he was in single digits; making lists, rankings and predictions throughout the show. This led him down the path to obsessing about awards. Much later, he found himself in film school and the film forums of GoldDerby, and then migrated over to the former Oscarwatch (now AwardsDaily), before breaking off to create AwardsWatch in 2013.

He is a Rotten Tomatoes-approved critic, accredited by the Cannes Film Festival, Telluride Film Festival, Toronto International Film Festival and more, is a member of the International Cinephile Society (ICS), The Society of LGBTQ Entertainment Critics (GALECA), Critics Choice Association (CCA), San Francisco Bay Area Film Critics Circle (SFBAFCC) and the International Press Academy. Among his many achieved goals with AwardsWatch, he has given a platform to underrepresented writers and critics and supplied them with access to film festivals and the industry and calls the Bay Area his home where he lives with his husband and son.

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