FINAL 2022 Oscar Nomination Predictions: ADAPTED SCREENPLAY and ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

The screenplay categories seem a little more sewn up than usual with one odd exception; since 2003 every year has seen a screenplay nominee being the only representation for its film and this year it’s hard to see if that’s going to hold true.

When you consider that several of those one-offs belonged to either Mike Leigh (a writers branch favorite) or one Richard Linklater’s Before films you can make an easier argument for the screenplay categories not needing a streak like that to continue. But often it’s also for a film that has also underperformed 2014’s elsewhere like Nightcrawler or 2016’s 20^th Century Women or 2018’s First Reformed. It’s probably not going to happen in adapted screenplay (it overwhelmingly happens in original) but even looking at original there’s really only a few possibilities. Mike Mills’ C’mon C’mon is the most likely, and he already did it with 20^th Century Women. Previous winner here Pedro Almodóvar could also show up for Parallel Mothers, if the film doesn’t show up in original score and/or best actress.

The BAFTA to Oscar crossover for non-English language films is pretty great, which helps Drive My Car in adapted, as it made the cut there. Correlation below with bolded making both BAFTA and Oscar. It’s 11/17 crossover and of the 11 that made the Oscar screenplay lineup, six also made the Directing lineup and four were also nominated for Best Picture. Thanks Jonathan, for this compilation.

2020 – Another Round
2019 – Parasite (won Oscar)
2018 – Cold War, Roma
2012 – Amour
2010 – The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo
2008 – I’ve Loved You So Long
2007 – The Diving Bell and the Butterfly, The Kite Runner, The Lives of Others (Ineligible at Oscars)
2006 – Pan’s Labyrinth
2004 – The Motorcycle Diaries, The Chorus
2003 – The Barbarian Invasions
2002 – Y tu mamá también, Talk to Her (won Oscar)
2001 – Amelie
2000 – Crouching Tiger, Hidden Dragon

Here are my final 2022 Oscar nomination predictions for Adapted Screenplay and Original Screenplay.

ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

1. The Power of the Dog – Jane Campion (Netflix) – GG, CCA, BAFTA, USC
2. CODA – Siân Heder (Apple Original Films) – CCA, BAFTA, WGA
3. The Lost Daughter – Maggie Gyllenhaal (Netflix) – CCA, BAFTA, USC
4. Drive My Car – Ryusuke Hamaguchi, Takamasa Oe (Sideshow/Janus Films) – BAFTA
5. Dune – Denis Villeneuve, Jon Spaihts, Eric Roth (Warner Bros/HBO Max) – CCA, BAFTA, USC, WGA

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6. West Side Story – Tony Kushner (20^th Century Studios) – CCA, WGA
7. The Tragedy of Macbeth – Joel Coen (A24/Apple Original Films) – USC
8. Passing – Rebecca Hall (Netflix) – USC
9. tick, tick…BOOM! – Steven Levenson (Netflix) – WGA
10. Nightmare Alley – Guillermo del Toro, Kim Morgan (Searchlight Pictures) – WGA

ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

1. Belfast – Kenneth Branagh (Focus Features) – GG, CCA, BAFTA
2. Licorice Pizza – Paul Thomas Anderson (MGM/UAR) – GG, CCA, BAFTA, WGA  
3. Don’t Look Up – Adam McKay, David Sirota (Netflix) – GG, CCA, BAFTA, WGA  
4. Being the Ricardos – Aaron Sorkin (Amazon Studios) – GG, BAFTA, WGA 
5. King Richard – Zach Baylin (Warner Bros/ HBO Max) – CCA, BAFTA, WGA 

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6. C’mon C’mon – Mike Mills (A24)
7. The French Dispatch – Wes Anderson (Searchlight Pictures) – WGA
8. Parallel Mothers – Pedro Almodóvar (Sony Pictures Classics)
9. A Hero – Asghar Farhadi (Amazon Studios)
10. The Hand of God – Paolo Sorrentino (Netflix)