FINAL 2023 Emmy Predictions: Comedy Categories Could Put Ayo Edebiri in the Emmy History Books

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Voting is over and nominations are coming for the 75th Emmys, so it’s time to dive into specifics and see what will likely take slots when it comes to nominations. The comedy categories have been famously vicious in the past several years as comedies ranging from 21 to 60 minutes are now all vying for the top prize in the same arena. It doesn’t seem like this year will bring too many new names into the running with so many series ending, but there is room for perhaps one or two freshman series to make the cut.

FX’s The Bear is likely to be the biggest hit at the Emmys when it comes to first season shows going for the gold. With a second season dropping in prime position to remind voters what they love about the show, it would only make sense that the show would earn a few nods. On the other end of the spectrum are shows like The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel (Prime Video), Barry (HBO), and Ted Lasso (AppleTV+), which have all aired their final seasons in the past few months. These shows have all been top contenders in their runs, so pitting them against each other in this way is fitting for good competition. It will be interesting to see how these final seasons do, however, as the Emmys are notoriously unsentimental about fan-favorite series ending (see also: they don’t care). 

The Television Academy doesn’t mind nominating (mostly) the same series year after year, but perhaps other newcomers like Shrinking (AppleTV+), Wednesday (Netflix) or Poker Face (Peacock) can join The Bear’s campaign to grab a few nominations on July 12 when they’re announced. The comedy categories don’t mind tossing in a couple of unexpected choices, which can be exciting (thinking specifically of how many nominations they’re willing to give What We Do in the Shadows for writing). Poker Face could certainly draw attention to itself from the TV Academy with Rian Johnson at the helm; they love throwing in directors who usually direct feature films. With as many series that have come out in the past year during eligibility, there are likely to be some pleasing choices as well as some that will provide internet discourse for at least a few hours. 

One thing is for sure and that’s that this should be a banner Emmy year for Ayo Edebiri. The breakout star of The Bear will most definitely earn a Supporting Actress in a Comedy Series nomination for the show’s freshman season but also stands a very good shot at Guest Actress for her turn as Quinta Brunson’s sister in Abbott Elementary and in Writing for the episode “Private School” (co-written with Shana Gohd) from What We Do in the Shadows, a show which has already earned five writing nominations – three in 2020 and two in 2022. But wait, there’s more: as a consulting producer on What We Do in the Shadows, she’d earn one more if it’s once again nominated for Outstanding Comedy Series, bringing her individual total to four. That would make her the most-nominated Black woman in a single year in Emmy history, surpassing Brunson, who set the record just last year with three and is herself poised to top that this year with four.

Based on submissions into each category, here is how many nominations we will see in top Comedy categories:

• 8 slots for Comedy Series from 95 submissions
• 5 slots for Comedy Lead Actor from 68 submissions
• 5 slots for Comedy Lead Actress from 76 submissions
• 7 slots for Comedy Supporting Actor from 239 submissions
• 7 slots for Comedy Supporting Actress from 202 submissions
• 6 slots for Comedy Directing from 146 submissions (including one must-have multi-cam)
• 6 slots for Comedy Writing from 150 submissions

Emmy nominations will be announced Wednesday, July 12. The Creative Arts Emmy Awards will once again be presented over two consecutive nights – Saturday, September 9 and Sunday, September 10 – with an edited presentation of the ceremonies to be broadcast on FXX the following weekend.

The 75th Primetime Emmy Awards will take place on Monday, September 18, and air live on FOX at 8:00pm ET/ 5:00pm PT.

Here are my final 2023 Emmy nomination predictions in the top Comedy categories.

Outstanding Comedy Series

• Abbott Elementary (ABC)
• Barry (HBO)
• The Bear (FX)
• The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel (Prime Video)
• Only Murders in the Building (Hulu)
• Poker Face (Peaock)
• Ted Lasso (AppleTV+)
• What We Do in the Shadows (FX)

Other contenders: Wednesday (Netflix), Shrinking (AppleTV+), The Great (Hulu), Somebody Somewhere (HBO)

Outstanding Lead Actor in a Comedy Series

• Bill Hader – Barry (HBO)
• Steve Martin – Only Murders in the Building (Hulu)
• Martin Short – Only Murders in the Building (Hulu)
• Jason Sudeikis – Ted Lasso (AppleTV+)
• Jeremy Allen White – The Bear (FX)

Other contenders: Donald Glover – Atlanta (FX), Nicholas Hoult – The Great (Hulu), Jason Segel – Shrinking (AppleTV+)

Outstanding Lead Actress in a Comedy Series

• Christina Applegate – Dead to Me (Netflix)
• Quinta Brunson – Abbott Elementary (ABC)
• Rachel Brosnahan – The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel (Prime Video)
• Natasha Lyonne – Poker Face (Peacock)
• Jenna Ortega – Wednesday (Netflix)

Other contenders: Linda Cardellini – Dead to Me (Netflix), Bridget Everett – Somebody Somewhere (HBO), Elle Fanning – The Great (Hulu), Selena Gomez – Only Murders in the Building (Hulu), Heléne Yorke – The Other Two (Max) 

Outstanding Supporting Actor in a Comedy Series

• Anthony Carrigan – Barry (HBO)
• Phil Dunster – Ted Lasso (AppleTV+)
• Harrison Ford – Shrinking (AppleTV+)
• Brett Goldstein – Ted Lasso (AppleTV+)
• Tony Shalhoub – The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel (Prime Video)
• Tyler James Williams – Abbott Elementary (ABC)
• Henry Winkler – Barry (HBO)

Other contenders: Ebon Moss-Bachrach – The Bear (FX), Nick Mohammed – Ted Lasso (AppleTV+), Chris Perfetti – Abbott Elementary (ABC), Bowen Yang – Saturday Night Live (NBC)

Outstanding Supporting Actress in a Comedy Series

• Alex Borstein – The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel (Prime Video)
• Ayo Edebiri – The Bear (FX)
• Sarah Goldberg – Barry (HBO)
• Janelle James – Abbott Elementary (ABC)
• Sheryl Lee Ralph – Abbott Elementary (ABC)
• Hannah Waddingham – Ted Lasso (AppleTV+)
• Lisa Ann Walter – Abbott Elementary (ABC)

Other contenders: Christina Ricci – Wednesday (Netflix), Molly Shannon – The Other Two (Max), Juno Temple – Ted Lasso (AppleTV+), Michelle Yeoh – American Born Chinese (Disney+)

Outstanding Guest Actor in a Comedy Series

• Jon Bernthal – The Bear (FX)
• Nathan Lane – Only Murders in the Building (Hulu)
• Steve Martin & Martin Short – Saturday Night Live (NBC)
• Leslie Odom Jr. – Abbott Elementary (ABC)
• Pedro Pascal – Saturday Night Live (NBC)
• Oliver Platt – The Bear (FX)

Other contenders: Fred Armisen – Wednesday (Netflix), Hank Azaria – The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel (Prime Video), Adrien Brody – Poker Face (Peacock), Luke Kirby – The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel (Prime Video)

Outstanding Guest Actress in a Comedy Series

• Quinta Brunson – Saturday Night Live (NBC)
• Ayo Edebiri – Abbott Elementary (ABC)
• Taraji P. Henson – Abbott Elementary (ABC)
• Jane Lynch – Only Murders in the Building (Hulu)
• Shirley MacLaine – Only Murders in the Building (Hulu)
• Molly Shannon – Saturday Night Live (NBC)

Other contenders: Hong Chau – Poker Face (Peacock), Sarah Niles – Ted Lasso (AppleTV+), Jenna Ortega – Saturday Night Live (NBC), Catherine Zeta-Jones – Wednesday (Netflix)

Outstanding Writing for a Comedy Series

• Abbott Elementary – “Development Day,” Quinta Brunson (ABC)
• Barry – “Wow,” Bill Hader (HBO)
• The Bear – “System,” Christopher Storer (FX)
• The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel – “Four Minutes,” Amy Sherman-Palladino
• Ted Lasso – “So Long, Farewell,” Jason Sudeikis, Brendan Hunt and Joe Kelly (AppleTV+)
• What We Do in the Shadows – “Private School,” Ayo Edebiri and Shana Gohd (FX)

Other contenders: Jury Duty – “Ineffective Assistance,” Mekki Leeper (Amazon Freevee); The Other Two – “Cary & Brooke Go To an AIDS Play,” Chris Kelly and Sarah Schneider (Max) What We Do in the Shadows – “Go Flip Yourself,” Yana Gorskaya (FX)

Outstanding Directing for a Comedy Series

• Barry – “Wow,” Bill Hader (HBO)
• The Bear – “Review,” Christopher Storer (FX)
• The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel – “Four Minutes,” Amy Sherman-Palladino (Prime Video)
• The Ms. Pat Show – “Don’t Touch My Hair,” Mary Lou Belli (BET+)
• Only Murders in the Building – “I Know Who Did It” Jamie Babbit (Hulu)
• Ted Lasso – “(I Don’t Want To Go To) Chelsea,” M.J. Delaney (AppleTV+)

Other contenders: The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel – “The Testi-Rostial,” Daniel Palladino (Prime Video); Poker Face – “Escape From Shit Mountain,” Rian Johnson (Peacock); Poker Face – “The Orpheus Syndrome,” Natasha Lyonne (Peacock); Shrinking – “Boop,” Zach Braff (AppleTV+); Ted Lasso – “So Long, Farewell,” Declan Lowney (AppleTV+)

Photos: Gilles Mingasson (ABC), Matt Dinerstein (FX)