Is this one of the weakest years in a while for the screenplay categories? When really breaking down the main contenders, looking at the precursors we have and the films that have won critics’ awards to date, it’s difficult to even knock out a top 10 in both adapted and original.
With so many ineligible films at the Writers Guild of America (WGA), the strictest of the main guilds, it’s rarely usable as a proper precursor and with their nominations this year coming out after the Oscar nominations, even less so.
Adapted is the significantly weaker of the bunch when you have to consider Top Gun: Maverick as a threat for a nomination. Living and She Said landed on the BAFTA and received nominations from Critics’ Choice and USC Scripter but Women Talking secured a USC and Golden Globe nomination, the only adapted screenplay to do so. But where it stands in the Best Picture race (or doesn’t) may be the deciding factor once nominations come out.
The Whale made the BAFTA and Critics’ Choice but its miss at USC might be very telling. It should be fine for a nomination after its Producers Guild (PGA) nomination last week and with a Best Actor frontrunner leading it, it’s either #1 or #2, post-nominations.
Netflix has three potential contenders here with Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery, Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio (a USC nominee) and All Quiet on the Western Front (maybe White Noise, but what happened there?). Only All Quiet made BAFTA, Glass Onion hit CCA but was ineligible at USC. The first Knives Out was nominated for the Original Screenplay Oscar, its only nod. Will history repeat with the sequel?
Original Screenplay is certainly the richer of the two categories with The Banshees of Inisherin, Everything Everywhere All At Once, The Fabelmans and TÁR hitting the three spots mentioned above. The Banshees of Inisherin won the Globe and EEAAO won CCA, which has been part and parcel of their critics’ performance volley this season. It’s hard to see any of them miss so what’s in the #5 spot? Aftersun is something I’d like to see there but after missing BAFTA where Triangle of Sadness made it, it’s probably the latter.
Another large branch at 510 members, if everyone submits a ballot it will take 86 votes to secure a nomination.
Oscar nominations for the 95th Academy Awards will be announced on Tuesday, January 24. Here are my final 2023 Oscar nomination predictions for Adapted Screenplay.
|1. The Whale (A24) – BAFTA, CCA|
|2. Women Talking (UAR/Orion) – CCA, GG, USC|
|3. She Said (Universal Pictures) – BAFTA, CCA, USC|
|4. Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery (Netflix) – CCA|
|5. All Quiet on the Western Front (Netflix) – BAFTA|
|6. Living (Sony Pictures Classics) – BAFTA, CCA, USC|
|7. Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio (Netflix) – USC|
|8. Top Gun: Maverick (Paramount Pictures) – USC|
|9. Marcel the Shell with Shoes On (A24)|
|10. A Man Called Otto (Sony Pictures)|
|1. The Banshees of Inisherin (Searchlight Pictures) – BAFTA, CCA, GG|
|2. Everything Everywhere All At Once (A24) – BAFTA, CCA, GG|
|3. TÁR (Focus Features) – BAFTA, CCA, GG|
|4. The Fabelmans (Universal Pictures) – BAFTA, CCA, GG|
|5. Triangle of Sadness (NEON) – BAFTA|
|6. Aftersun (A24) – CCA|
|7. The Menu (Searchlight Pictures)|
|8. Elvis (Warner Bros)|
|9. Decision to Leave (MUBI)|
|10. Nope (Universal Pictures)|