Five films have landed the four main precursors for Production Design: Avatar: The Way of Water, Babylon, Elvis, Everything Everywhere All At Once and The Fabelmans.
The first Avatar won here 13 years ago and the world building of the sequel is even larger and more expansive than the first. Speaking of sequels, the first Black Panther won here four years ago (making Hannah Beachler the first Black person ever to in this category) and the sequel, Black Panther: Wakanda Forever, has snagged mentions from the Art Directors Guild (ADG), Critics’ Choice and the newer guild, the Set Decorators Society of America (SDSA), and although it missed the BAFTA longlist, the first one did as well and that didn’t impede it. The Batman missed CCA and SDSA of the four precursors but, along with those previously mentioned, is the only other film to earn more than one of them.
Babylon and Elvis feel like the biggest locks here, if alone for their pedigrees but also their scope; more and bigger, even if their box office results are at the opposite end of the spectrum. Stop-motion animated films have always struggled here and this year, Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio might come closer than any film has and could make it in.
The Production Design branch has 390 members, meaning 66 votes will be required to secure a nomination.
Oscar nominations for the 95th Academy Awards will be announced on Tuesday, January 24. Here are my final 2023 Oscar nomination predictions for Production Design.
|1. Elvis (Warner Bros) – ADG, BAFTA, CCA, SDSA|
|2. Babylon (Paramount Pictures) – ADG, BAFTA, CCA, SDSA|
|3. Avatar: The Way of Water (20th Century Studios) – ADG, CCA, SDSA|
|4. Black Panther: Wakanda Forever (Walt Disney/Marvel Studios) – ADG, CCA, SDSA|
|5. The Fabelmans (Universal Pictures) – ADG, CCA, SDSA|
|6. Everything Everywhere All At Once (A24) – ADG, CCA, SDSA|
|7. All Quiet on the Western Front (Netflix) – ADG, BAFTA|
|8. The Batman (Warner Bros) – ADG, BAFTA, SDSA|
|9. Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio (Netflix) – ADG, BAFTA|
|10. Empire of Light (Searchlight Pictures)|