FINAL 2023 Oscar Predictions: BEST DIRECTOR
With the BAFTA winner (Edward Berger for All Quiet on the Western Front) not in contention here and the Golden Globe winner (Steven Spielberg for The Fabelmans) being a season dud, the path is open and clear for DGA winners Daniel Kwan and Daniel Scheinert (Everything Everywhere All At Once) to become only the third duo to win the award and the first since the Coen Brothers for 2007’s No Country for Old Men.
The matter of who is 2nd place or could be a spoiler feels so distant that it almost doesn’t matter who you pick. Martin McDonagh (The Banshees of Inisherin) is the only other director nominated to hit all precursors but none resulted in a win. Back in 2012, Steven Spielberg couldn’t win in the year Affleck was snubbed, the Academy opting for Ang Lee for a second win (with no Best Picture win again). No one can really stake much of a claim here as the biggest hurdle The Daniels had was DGA (where some people stuck to their guns for Spielberg) and they got it.
Berger winning BAFTA was actually the best case scenario for The Daniels (well, second best) as they didn’t have to lose to direct Oscar competition, the way they did at the Golden Globes (which were aired before Oscar nominations came out). There’s a reason we say the DGA such a powerful predictor. When presented with different DGA and BAFTA winners, the Academy overwhelmingly has sided with the DGA as their choice. Excluding the fractured years where they went with neither (2000, 2012, 2019), only once since 2000 did Oscar voters side with BAFTA (2002).
Here are my final 2023 Oscar winner predictions for Best Director.
|1. Daniel Kwan and Daniel Scheinert – Everything Everywhere All At Once (A24) – BAFTA, CCA, GG, DGA|
|2. Todd Field – TÁR (Focus Features) – BAFTA, CCA, DGA|
|3. Martin McDonagh – The Banshees of Inisherin (Searchlight Pictures) – BAFTA, CCA, GG, DGA|
|4. Steven Spielberg – The Fabelmans (Universal Pictures) – CCA, GG, DGA|
|5. Ruben Östlund – Triangle of Sadness (NEON)|