FINAL 2023 Oscar Predictions: FILM EDITING and SOUND

Since 2013, the Film Editing and Sound Oscars have gone hand-in-hand, regardless of the Sound category being two separate ones (editing and mixing) or merged into one, giving us one of our best modern era streaks when it comes to how voters vote and how they see the connection between these two crafts.

In dual sound years, it tended to favor the combo of Film Editing/Sound Mixing but during this period several films took all three (2013’s Gravity, 2015’s Mad Max: Fury Road, 2017’s Dunkirk, and 2018’s Bohemian Rhapsody). 2016 opted for the Sound Mixing winner (Hacksaw Ridge over Sound Editing winner Arrival) for film editing and 2019’s Ford v. Ferrari won Film Editing and Sound Editing when 1917 missed the former. 2020’s Sound of Metal was the only film nominated for both Film Editing and Sound and won them both.

What we have this year is a unique possibility to break that streak and there are quite a few ways it could happen. The only films that are nominated for both Film Editing and Sound are the two cornerstones of these categories: a music biopic (Elvis) and a huge action film (Top Gun: Maverick). Both films won prizes from the Motion Picture Sound Editors (MPSE) guild and Top Gun won the Cinema Audio Society (CAS) award over Elvis and Sound Oscar nominees All Quiet on the Western Front, Avatar: The Way of Water and The Batman. Everything Everywhere All At Once was nominated for both CAS and three MPSE awards but lost them all and ultimately missed out on the Oscar nomination.

For Film Editing it’s kind of the flip side, where Everything Everywhere All At Once has performed extremely well with precursors, earning the BAFTA and Critics’ Choice over Top Gun and Elvis and winning the American Cinema Editors (ACE) award for comedy. Top Gun: Maverick won the ACE for drama. All Quiet on the Western Front was, like EEAAO in Sound, a major nomination miss here at the Oscars.

Now, prevailing logic says that Top Gun: Maverick could easily just win both Film Editing and Sound and keep the streak going, and it’s probably the safest bet. Without direct competition from AQOTWF or EEAAO in those respective categories, the path seems clear. Last year, Dune missed every Film Editing precursor win and wound up as the Film Editing Oscar winner anyway, over both ACE winners, and the BAFTA and Critics’ Choice winners (neither of which were Oscar-nominated). While Dune was a slightly stronger contender than Top Gun: Maverick is this year, it did really show how voters easily default to the same film winning both.

It should be noted that since the inception of the film editing award at Critics’ Choice in 2009, Everything Everywhere All At Once is only the second film ever to sweep ACE, CCA and BAFTA after Mad Max: Fury Road. Working against EEAAO is that its ACE win for comedy isn’t nearly as strong as the winner in drama. 2002’s Chicago was the last ACE comedy winner to translate that into an Oscar win, where it also won Best Picture, something Top Gun won’t be doing, but that EEAAO almost assuredly is. There is no precedent for the Oscar winner to have a precursor haul of BAFTA, CCA and ACE Comedy but if Everything Everywhere All At Once has proven anything this season it’s that it’s setting new ones.

So what does a split here look like? EEAAO winning Film Editing and Top Gun: Maverick winning Sound? Top Gun or EEAAO winning Film Editing and All Quiet winning Sound? Could Top Gun get completely blanked?

At the end of the day, ACE Drama still has the best track record, with 13 winners since 2000 winning the Oscar. BAFTA gave us winners like Whiplash, Hacksaw Ridge and Ford v Ferrari without an ACE win.

Here are my final 2023 Oscar winner predictions in Film Editing and Sound.

FILM EDITING

SOUND