With Emmy nominations right around the corner – Wednesday, July 17 to be exact – it’s time for final predictions in all categories from both myself and AwardsWatch Editor-In-Chief Erik Anderson to see where we agree and where we split on this season’s race.
As discussed on the AwardsWatch podcast, this year’s limited series categories will see no shortage of competition as every one of those categories is abnormally competitive. With so many limited series coming out in the past year, there are series attempting to stay away from these categories by moving into comedy or drama (I’m a Virgo, The Curse). The nominations will prove if these were wise strategies, but staying out of Baby Reindeer’s path is probably advised.
Shōgun is the hot drama on everyone’s mind this Emmy season, so expecting no shortage of nominations is a safe bet to be the most-nominated show of the season, aiming for 20+. First thought to be a limited series, FX has given a not-a-renewal-but-a-maybe to a couple more seasons, pushing the series into drama where it will do very well amongst its peers. With almost no turning series in most of the categories, there’s room for new blood to come in and make a mark. This includes series like The Gilded Age, a drama that, on paper, should do well with the Television Academy, but perhaps wasn’t able to break in for its first season due to the sheer volume of dramas in the running that year. In a year so heavily affected by both the writer & actor strikes, there will be more space for other series to make their mark.
After The Bear stormed last season’s Emmys with sweeping wins above the line, its second season is aiming to break the all time Emmy record for a comedy series – 22 – which 30 Rock set in 2009. It’ll have to face with the third seasons of Abbott Elementary, Hacks and Only Murders in the Building as well as the 10th and final season of Curb Your Enthusiasm but should be able to clear the tables of any and all of its challengers.
New series’ also stand a great chance of doing well this year, Mr. and Mrs. Smith being a show that premiered just this year but could bring in a slew of nominations. Prime Video has Fallout, Netflix is bringing 3 Body Problem, and AppleTV+ could see chances with Palm Royale. Returning shows like The Morning Show and The Crown will assuredly receive nominations in the double digits, especially considering the latter’s recent end. With so many shows that will be included that haven’t been before, the competition will be a heated one.
Emmy nominations will be announced on Wednesday, July 17 at 8:30am PT by previous Emmy winners Tony Hale and Sheryl Lee Ralph (Hale is in Unfrosted and Quiz Lady, Ralph is in Abbott Elementary) on emmys.com.
The Creative Arts Awards and Governors Gala ceremonies will take place over two nights on September 7 and 8. The 76th Primetime Emmy Awards will air on ABC on Sunday, September 15.
Here are AwardsWatch’s final Emmy predictions, including the number of submissions each category had and the corresponding amount of nominations, and also a look at last year’s nominees in each respective category.
Outstanding Drama Series: 107 (8 nominees)
Other contender: Ahsoka (Disney+)
Last year’s nominees (*denotes winner): Andor, Better Call Saul, The Crown, House of the Dragon, The Last of Us, Succession*, The White Lotus, Yellowjackets
Outstanding Lead Actor in a Drama Series: 81 (6 nominees)
Other contender: Gary Oldman, Slow Horses (AppleTV+)
Last year’s nominees (*denotes winner): Jeff Bridges, The Old Man; Brian Cox, Succession; Kieran Culkin, Succession*; Bob Odenkirk, Better Call Saul; Pedro Pascal, The Last of Us; Jeremy Strong, Succession
Outstanding Lead Actress in a Drama Series: 67 (6 nominees)
Other contender: Reese Witherspoon, The Morning Show (AppleTV+)
Last year’s nominees (*denotes winner): Sharon Horgan, Bad Sisters; Melanie Lynskey, Yellowjackets; Elisabeth Moss, The Handmaid’s Tale; Bella Ramsey, The Last of Us; Keri Russell, The Diplomat; Sarah Snook, Succession*
Outstanding Supporting Actor in a Drama Series: 217 (7 nominees)
Other contender: Nathan Lane, The Gilded Age (MAX)
Last year’s nominees (*denotes winner): F. Murray Abraham, The White Lotus; Nicholas Braun, Succession; Michael Imperioli, The White Lotus; Theo James The White Lotus; Matthew Macfadyen, Succession*; Alan Ruck, Succession; Will Sharpe, The White Lotus; Alexander Skarsgård, Succession
Outstanding Supporting Actress in a Drama Series: 194 (7 nominees)
Other contender: Nicole Beharie, The Morning Show (AppleTV+)
Last year’s nominees (*denotes winner): Jennifer Coolidge, The White Lotus*; Elizabeth Debicki, The Crown; Meghann Fahy, The White Lotus; Sabrina Impacciatore, The White Lotus; Aubrey Plaza, The White Lotus; Rhea Seehorn, Better Call Saul; J. Smith-Cameron, Succession; Simona Tabasco, The White Lotus
Outstanding Comedy Series: 73 (8 nominees)
Other contender: Gen V (Prime Video)
Last year’s nominees (*denotes winner): Abbott Elementary, Barry, The Bear*, Jury Duty, The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel, Only Murders in the Building, Ted Lasso, Wednesday
Outstanding Lead Actor in a Comedy Series: 55 (5 nominees)
Other contender: Kelsey Grammar, Frasier (Paramount+)
Last year’s nominees (*denotes winner): Bill Hader, Barry; Jason Segel, Shrinking; Martin Short, Only Murders in the Building; Jason Sudeikis, Ted Lasso; Jeremy Allen White, The Bear *
Outstanding Lead Actress in a Comedy Series: 58 (5 nominees)
Other contender: Selena Gomez, Only Murders in the Building (Hulu)
Last year’s nominees (*denotes winner): Christina Applegate, Dead to Me; Rachel Brosnahan, The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel; Quinta Brunson, Abbott Elementary *; Natasha Lyonne, Poker Face; Jenna Ortega, Wednesday
Outstanding Supporting Actor in a Comedy Series: 147 (6 nominees)
Other contender: Paul W. Downs, Hacks (MAX)
Last year’s nominees (*denotes winner): Anthony Carrigan, Barry; Phil Dunster, Ted Lasso; Brett Goldstein, Ted Lasso; James Marsden, Jury Duty; Ebon Moss-Bachrach, The Bear *; Tyler James Williams, Abbott Elementary; Henry Winkler, Barry
Outstanding Supporting Actress in a Comedy Series: 132 (6 nominees)
Other contender: Lisa Ann Walter, Abbott Elementary (ABC)
Last year’s nominees (*denotes winner): Alex Borstein, The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel; Ayo Edebiri, The Bear *; Janelle James, Abbott Elementary; Sheryl Lee Ralph, Abbott Elementary; Juno Temple, Ted Lasso; Hannah Waddingham, Ted Lasso; Jessica Williams, Shrinking
Outstanding Limited Series: 49 (5 nominees)
Other contender: Fellow Travelers (Showtime)
Last year’s nominees (*denotes winner): Beef*, Dahmer – Monster: The Jeffrey Dahmer Story, Daisy Jones & the Six, Fleishman Is in Trouble, Obi-Wan Kenobi
Outstanding Television Movie: 42 (5 nominees)
Other contender: Quiz Lady (Hulu)
Last year’s nominees (*denotes winner): Dolly Parton’s Mountain Magic Christmas, Fire Island, Hocus Pocus 2, Prey, Weird: The Al Yankovic Story *
Outstanding Actor in a Limited or Anthology Series or Movie: 70 (5 nominees)
Other contender: David Oyelowo, Lawmen Bass Reeves (Paramount+)
Last year’s nominees (*denotes winner): Taron Egerton, Black Bird; Kumail Nanjiani, Welcome to Chippendales; Evan Peters, Dahmer – Monster: The Jeffrey Dahmer Story; Daniel Radcliffe, Weird: The Al Yankovic Story; Michael Shannon, George & Tammy; Steven Yeun, Beef *
Outstanding Actress in a Limited or Anthology Series or Movie: 62 (5 nominees)
Other contender: Nicole Kidman, Expats (Prime Video)
Last year’s nominees (*denotes winner): Lizzy Caplan, Fleishman Is in Trouble; Jessica Chastain, George & Tammy; Dominique Fishback, Swarm; Kathryn Hahn, Tiny Beautiful Things; Riley Keough, Daisy Jones & the Six; Ali Wong, Beef*
Outstanding Supporting Actor in a Limited or Anthology Series or Movie: 161 (7 nominees)
Other contender: Mark Ruffalo, All the Light We Cannot See (Netflix)
Last year’s nominees (*denotes winner): Murray Bartlett, Welcome to Chippendales; Paul Walter Hauser, Black Bird*; Richard Jenkins, Dahmer – Monster: The Jeffrey Dahmer Story; Joseph Lee, Beef; Ray Liotta, Black Bird; Young Mazino, Beef; Jesse Plemons, Love & Death
Outstanding Supporting Actress in a Limited or Anthology Series or Movie: 137 (7 nominees)
Other contender: Dakota Fanning, Ripley (Netflix)
Last year’s nominees (*denotes winner): Annaleigh Ashford, Welcome to Chippendales; Maria Bello, Beef; Claire Danes, Fleishman Is in Trouble; Juliette Lewis, Welcome to Chippendales; Camila Morrone, Daisy Jones & the Six; Niecy Nash-Betts, Dahmer – Monster: The Jeffrey Dahmer Story*; Merritt Wever, Tiny Beautiful Things
Outstanding Writing for a Drama Series: 134 (6 nominees)
Other contender: 3 Body Problem – “Countdown” (Netflix)
Last year’s nominees (*denotes winner): Andor – “One Way Out” (Disney+); Bad Sisters – “The Prick” (AppleTV+); Better Call Saul – “Point and Shoot” (AMC); Better Call Saul – “Saul Gone” (AMC); The Last of Us – “Long, Long Time” (HBO); Succession – “Connor’s Wedding” (HBO)*; The White Lotus – “Arrivederci” (HBO)
Outstanding Writing for a Comedy Series: 112 (6 nominees)
Other contender: The Other Two – “Brooke Hosts a Night of Undeniable Good” (MAX)
Last year’s nominees (*denotes winner): Barry – “wow” (HBO); The Bear – “System” (FX) *; Jury Duty – “Ineffective Assistance” (Amazon Freevee); Only Murders in the Building – “I Know Who Did It” (Hulu); The Other Two – “Cary & Brooke Go to an AIDS Play” (MAX); Ted Lasso – “So Long, Farewell” (AppleTV+)
Outstanding Writing for a Limited Series: 89 (6 nominees)
Other contender: Expats (Prime Video)
Last year’s nominees (*denotes winner): Beef – “The Birds Don’t Sing, They Screech in Pain” (Netflix)*; Fire Island (Hulu); Fleishman Is in Trouble – “Me-Time” (FX)
Prey (Hulu); Swarm – “Stung” (Prime Video); Weird: The Al Yankovic Story (Roku)
Outstanding Directing for a Drama Series: 148 (6 nominees)
Other contender: Mr. and Mrs. Smith – “First Date” (Prime Video)
Last year’s nominees (*denotes winner): Andor – “Rix Road” (Disney+); Bad Sisters – “The Prick” (AppleTV+); The Last of Us – “Long, Long Time” (HBO); Succession – “America Decides” (HBO); Succession – “Connor’s Wedding” (HBO)*; Succession – “Living+” (HBO); The White Lotus – “Arrivederci” (HBO)
Outstanding Directing for a Comedy Series: 107 (6 nominees, one multi-cam)
Other contender: Only Murders in the Building – “The Show Must…” (Hulu)
Last year’s nominees (*denotes winner): Barry – “wow” (HBO); The Bear – “Review” (FX) *; The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel – “Four Minutes” (Prime Video); The Ms. Pat Show – “Don’t Touch My Hair” (BET+); Ted Lasso – “So Long, Farewell” (AppleTV+); Wednesday – “Wednesday’s Child Is Full of Woe” (Netflix)
Outstanding Directing for a Limited Series: 104 (6 nominees)
Other contender: Expats – “Central” (Prime Video)
Last year’s nominees (*denotes winner): Beef – “Figures of Light” (Netflix)*; Beef – The Great Fabricator” (Netflix); Dahmer – Monster: The Jeffrey Dahmer Story – “Bad Meat” (Netflix); Dahmer – Monster: The Jeffrey Dahmer Story – “Silenced” (Netflix); Fleishman Is in Trouble – “Me-Time” (FX); Prey (Hulu)
Outstanding Guest Actor in a Drama Series: 53 (5 nominees)
Other contender: Paul Dano, Mr. and Mrs. Smith (Prime Video)
Last year’s nominees (*denotes winner): Murray Bartlett, The Last of Us; James Cromwell, Succession; Lamar Johnson, The Last of Us; Arian Moayed, Succession; Nick Offerman, The Last of Us*; Keivonn Montreal Woodard, The Last of Us
Outstanding Guest Actress in a Drama Series: 54 (5 nominees)
Other contender: Zine Tseng, 3 Body Problem – “Countdown” (Netflix)
Last year’s nominees (*denotes winner): Hiam Abbass, Succession; Cherry Jones, Succession; Melanie Lynskey, The Last of Us; Storm Reid, The Last of Us*; Anna Torv, The Last of Us; Harriet Walter, Succession
Outstanding Guest Actor in a Comedy Series: 93 (6 nominees)
Other contender: Christopher Macdonald, Hacks – “Par for the Course” (MAX)
Last year’s nominees (*denotes winner): Jon Bernthal, The Bear; Luke Kirby, The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel; Nathan Lane, Only Murders in the Building; Pedro Pascal, Saturday Night Live; Oliver Platt, The Bear; Sam Richardson, Ted Lasso*
Outstanding Guest Actress in a Comedy Series: 77 (6 nominees)
Other contender: Christina Hendricks, Hacks – “Par for the Course” (MAX)
Last year’s nominees (*denotes winner): Becky Ann Baker, Ted Lasso ; Quinta Brunson, Saturday Night Live; Taraji P. Henson, Abbott Elementary; Judith Light, Poker Face*; Sarah Niles, Ted Lasso; Harriet Walter, Ted Lasso
Outstanding Reality Competition Program: 50 (5 nominees)
Other contender: The Voice (NBC)
Last year’s nominees (*denotes winner): The Amazing Race, RuPaul’s Drag Race*, Survivor, Top Chef, The Voice
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