FINAL 2024 Oscar Predictions: BEST ACTOR

Is it the SAG five in Best Actor? It’s never that easy, right?

There isn’t much of a case to be made against Cillian Murphy (Oppenheimer), Bradley Cooper (Maestro) or Paul Giamatti (The Holdovers) to miss after getting BAFTA, Critics Choice, Golden Globe and SAG but it’s not a zero percent chance. With Murphy and Giamatti likely battling it out for the win and Cooper’s self-directed chiaroscuro of a performance they all feel quite solid. That being said, actors directing themselves to a lead acting nomination isn’t that common; 19 times in 95 years with Sir Laurence Oliver, Warren Beatty and Clint Eastwood doing it multiple times and Cooper having done it just five years ago with his first directorial effort, 2018’s A Star Is Born.

It can’t go unsaid that one of the glaring omissions the Best Actor category has had over the last 95 years and 470+ nominations is that only once has an openly gay actor played an openly gay character and been nominated for it (Ian McKellen for 1998’s Gods and Monsters). Think about that for a moment then think about how many times a gay/queer role has been nominated and even won. Now it’s easy to say ‘well, there just aren’t that many open actors’ and that’s a fair point. In fact, it is the point. This year, the Academy has two performances that should change that stat and move the needle; Colman Domingo in Rustin and Andrew Scott in All Of Us Strangers.

For Domingo, he comes in with all precursors (BAFTA, Critics Choice, Golden Globe, SAG) and is playing a real life person a biopic. Pretty much Academy catnip. For Scott, while he’s playing a fictional character, it’s a Golden Globe-nominated and National Society of Film Critics-winning performance in one of best reviewed films of the year. While it’s a competitive year in Best Actor there is room, even if it’s most likely just for one. Historically, that means siding with Domingo as the more likely but even he has to get past the likes of Leonardo DiCaprio (Killers of the Flower Moon) who failed to earn either BAFTA or SAG nominations, the only two industry groups of the four precursors, and could get in on name and star power alone. Jeffrey Wright (American Fiction) could be vulnerable after his film’s poor showing at BAFTA but he feels in. Scott, who missed BAFTA while his director and two of his co-stars made it in feels like a fatal blow. It wouldn’t be a miracle if he makes it but it would be a bit of a shocker to see who he gets in over.

Oscar nominations will be announced on January 23 and the 96th Academy Awards will be held on March 10.

Here are my final 2024 Oscar predictions in Best Actor.

1. Paul Giamatti – The Holdovers (Focus Features) – BAFTA, CCA, GG, SAG
2. Cillian Murphy – Oppenheimer (Universal Pictures) – BAFTA, CCA, GG, SAG
3. Bradley Cooper – Maestro (Netflix) – BAFTA, CCA, GG, SAG
4. Colman Domingo – Rustin (Netflix) – BAFTA, CCA, GG, SAG
5. Jeffrey Wright – American Fiction (Amazon MGM/Orion) – CCA, GG, SAG

6. Leonardo DiCaprio – Killers of the Flower Moon (Apple Original Films) – CCA, GG

7. Andrew Scott – All of Us Strangers (Searchlight Pictures) – GG

8. Barry Keoghan – Saltburn (Amazon MGM Studios) – BAFTA, GG

9. Christian Friedel – The Zone of Interest (A24)

10. Teo Yoo – Past Lives (A24)