FINAL 2024 Oscar Predictions: SUPPORTING ACTRESS

While it may be a forgone conclusion that Da’Vine Joy Randolph in The Holdovers is winning the Oscar for Supporting Actress – and really, her run so far has been one for the books – once she’s gotten the majority of those #1 votes, where do we go from there? Surely Emily Blunt (Oppenheimer) and Danielle Brooks (The Color Purple) with their BAFTA, Critics Choice, Golden Globe and Screen Actors Guild nominations are pretty secure. But let’s say for argument’s sake they are, because generally, when you get all of those you’re in. We haven’t had an Oscar snub in this category in the last 20+ years after locking them in (other acting categories, yes) even with different voting structures and membership lineups across all groups.

It gets real slippery after that with Jodie Foster (Nyad), Julianne Moore (May December) and Rosamund Pike (Saltburn) sharing a smattering of precursors and the stealthy Penélope Cruz (Ferrari) with that SAG nod. Then there’s Sandra Hüller in the two biggest non-English language films of the year, the Cannes Palme d’Or winner Anatomy of a Fall where she’s a Best Actress contender (which yes, has a lot of English in it) and the Cannes Grand Prize winner The Zone of Interest (the International Feature Film Oscar frontrunner) where’s got a shot here and just earned a BAFTA nomination this morning. While we’ve had American, Australian and English actresses earn double Oscar nominations before (Emma Thompson, Cate Blanchett, Scarlett Johansson, Julianne Moore and Holly Hunter among them) it’s never happened for a non-English language actress, which would make the German-born Hüller the first.

So will land those last two spots? Foster has emerged from her very non-public persona to be everywhere, giving interviews and benefitting from her new HBO series True Detective being a hit and also keeping her in front of the cameras. But she has been in the Oscar conversation (outside of her strange Golden Globe win for 2021’s The Mauritanian) for decades. Moore, a previous Best Actress winner like Foster, hasn’t been nominated since her win nearly a decade ago. Cruz’s previous Oscar win came in this category and she was recently a ‘no precursor’ Best Actress nominee for Parallel Mothers. Pike netted Golden Globe and BAFTA nods and is a previous nominee while Claire Foy, who got so close here with 2018’s First Man (earning BAFTA, Critics Choice and Golden Globe nods), comes in with just BAFTA for All of Us Strangers, a film that’s largely struggled this season.

Is there anyone outside of this list that could benefit from some wild voting? Maybe America Ferrera in Barbie, if it’s bigger than it was with BAFTA. Or Rachel McAdams in Are You There God? It’s Me, Margaret., one of the very few actresses to wrestle any critics wins from Randolph this season.

Oscar nominations will be announced on January 23 and the 96th Academy Awards will be held on March 10. Here are my final 2024 Oscar nomination predictions in Supporting Actress.

Here are my 2024 Oscar predictions in Supporting Actress for December 2023.

1. Da’Vine Joy Randolph – The Holdovers (Focus Features) – BAFTA, CCA, GG, SAG
2. Emily Blunt – Oppenheimer (Universal Pictures) – BAFTA, CCA, GG, SAG
3. Danielle Brooks – The Color Purple (Warner Bros) – BAFTA, CCA, GG, SAG
4. Jodie Foster – Nyad (Netflix) – CCA, GG, SAG
5. Penélope Cruz – Ferrari (NEON) – SAG

6. Julianne Moore – May December (Netflix) – CCA, GG

7. Sandra Hüller – The Zone of Interest (A24) – BAFTA

8. Rosamund Pike – Saltburn (Amazon MGM Studios) – BAFTA, GG

9. Claire Foy – All of Us Strangers (Searchlight Pictures) – BAFTA

10. America Ferrera – Barbie (Warner Bros) – CCA