FINAL 2024 Primetime Emmy Awards Predictions: Expect Record-Breaking Wins for ‘Shōgun,’ ‘The Bear,’ ‘Baby Reindeer’

It’s time for the 2024 Primetime Emmy Awards! 

Stop me if you’ve heard this one before because yes, we kind of already had a 20204 Primetime Emmy Awards when the 2023 ceremony (the 75th) was pushed from its usual September placement last year because of the ongoing strikes from performers and writers that began in the summer and went through November. That bumped them right up against Golden Globe and Screen Actors Guild awards for television honoring completely different seasons; FX’s The Bear was an Emmy winner for its first season and a Golden Globe and SAG winner for its second, as the latter two orgs use a calendar year for eligibility vs the Emmys with their traditional June 1-May 31 qualifying period, which has its roots in a television landscape before year-round programming.

This past weekend had a two night celebration for the Creative Arts Emmys that awarded television shows in categories like cinematography, main title sequence, score, and production design.

Shōgun is the series to beat, if not already clear by its amount of nominations going into the ceremony but certainly after collecting 14 wins and breaking the all time record for most Emmy wins in a single year, the previous held for by HBO’s John Adams with 13 wins and the prior drama series wins a single year record being Game of Thrones, which won 12 Emmys out of 24 nominations in 2015 . With seven more nominations and a possibility of grabbing six more wins (the series has two nominations in supporting actor), it only seems likely that FX’s hottest new drama will fortify its record by winning multiple primetime awards. 

I think Shōgun’s lead actress, Anna Sawai, seems the easy winner in her category while Hiroyaki Sanada will likely join her in the winners circle for his performance on the show. Not only did the series have a strong showing at the Creative Arts Emmys, its acclaim has only built a larger following in the months post-premiere, word-of-mouth drawing attention to the series that backs itself up with excellent performances. Since I believe the series is about to navigate uncharted territories in number of wins in a single year and it will certainly win Outstanding Drama Series, it only makes sense for at least one of the lead performances to be in serious contention for a win. In this case, the quality of the show makes it believable that both leads can take home the win this year, repeating Succession’s wins in the category from Kieran Culkin and Sarah Snook. While the dramatic writing category seems pretty likely to go to Shōgun, I can’t see anything else surpassing the drama in directing. It doesn’t seem likely to me that any other nominee could have enough support to take the win.

I believe The Crown will have a bleak showing and only take home one primetime award for its final season in the supporting actress category for Elizabeth Debicki’s portrayal of Diana, Princess of Wales. And while I previously thought the Television Academy might find it easiest to award a previous winner in Supporting Actor in a Drama, it seems unlikely they’ll stray from Shōgun, so I’m switching my prediction to now see Tadanobu Asano win, his biggest competition being his co-star, Takehiro Hira. That isn’t to count Billy Crudup completely out of the race, but even with The Morning Show’s number of nominations, it seems unlikely the Apple drama will be able to compete with Shōgun this year. 

The series also picked up the award for Outstanding Casting in a Drama Series, a huge indication the show is all but locked in for the drama series award. For the same award in comedy and limited series, The Bear and Baby Reindeer took home the prizes, respectively. This isn’t a huge surprise, as these series have also been thought to be the frontrunners in their categories, but The Bear winning over Hacks does give a little insight to how voters might be thinking. Jeremy Allen White is poised to repeat his win again in Lead Actor for a Comedy Series and it seems likely the show will win three more Emmys, including Comedy Series, Supporting Actor in a Comedy, and Directing for a Comedy Series. If the FX series is able to pull this off, it will have earned 11 Emmys and beaten its own record as the comedy series with most wins in a single year. It seems natural to me that Ebon Moss-Bachrach takes home the award for Supporting Actor in a Comedy Series this year, with the episode “Forks” being one of the best showcases for any actor on any show last season. The Bear took home both guest acting awards in comedy and has enough steam going into the ceremony to fend off Hacks in the biggest category, even with Jean Smart poised to win her third Emmy for the MAX series. 

Only Murders in the Building won three Emmys over the weekend, including Outstanding Production Design and Original Music & Lyrics, but it doesn’t pose a threat to The Bear taking another victory lap. I think the Hulu series has its biggest chance at an award during the primetime ceremony in supporting actress Meryl Streep, not only because she is Meryl Streep but she’s also terrific in the comedy. Her biggest competition going into the night will be Hannah Einbinder, who is hot on her tail after her best season yet on Hacks, one that not only showed off her growth and talent as a performer, but the could-be of what next season is going to bring for the actress. It would also pair nicely with her co-star’s seemingly obvious win in Leading Actress (especially being a co-lead herself, all things being equal), so that’s an added bonus. Sheryl Lee Ralph has won in the category before for Abbott Elementary, but she seems mostly out of the conversation this year, probably largely in part to the ABC comedy’s shortened season post-strike. 

Limited series categories saw Creative Arts wins for both Baby Reindeer and Ripley, the latter taking home the awards for Outstanding Cinematography, Outstanding Visual Effects for a Single Episode, and Outstanding Sound Editing. Baby Reindeer not only took home the award for Outstanding Picture Editing, it has the most hype of any limited series this year going into the primetime ceremony. It doesn’t seem another show has even half the momentum necessary to take away the show’s moment, so Netflix will likely take home Outstanding Limited Series while the series concretely has Supporting Actress in a Limited Series locked up. Jessica Gunning losing the Emmy would be the biggest shock of the night, but it won’t happen. It’s too searing of a performance for the TV Academy to ignore for the win.

The limited series categories could see winners from several different shows, as it seems likely Jodie Foster will win Leading Actress for True Detective: Night Country, while Jonathan Bailey seeks a win in Supporting Actor for Showtime’s Fellow Travelers. Foster’s biggest competition will be Sofia Vergara, who Netflix has been pushing hard since January for her role in Griselda. Noah Hawley seems poised to grab an Emmy win for writing the premiere of the fifth installment of Fargo. Outstanding Lead Actor is going to be an exciting race because it seems to be one of the only categories not set in stone. Richard Gadd has gained plenty of attention on Baby Reindeer, plus his co-star’s win helps his case, but facing off against Matt Bomer in Fellow Travelers is tough. With Bomer’s co-star, Jonathan Bailey, in consideration to win in Supporting Actor, Bomer’s chances seem a little higher. On top of those two, Andrew Scott’s performance in Ripley puts him front-and-center, especially with the series garnering three Emmys already. I think Matt Bomer is going to win in this category, a more emotionally-charged performance that will likely put him above his competition. 

On the reality side, it seems RuPaul’s Drag Race might lose to The Traitors this year after Alan Cumming was the one to finally break RuPaul’s record-holding eight consecutive wins in the Reality Host category.

The 76th Primetime Emmy Awards will be held live on ABC next Sunday, September 15, and hosted by father and son Emmy winners Eugene and Dan Levy, whose Schitt’s Creek swept every Primetime Emmy it was nominated for in its final season, a first in Emmy history.

Outstanding Drama Series

Predicted winner: Shōgun (FX)

Could win: Mr. and Mrs. Smith (Prime Video)

Other contenders: The Crown (Netflix), Fallout (Prime Video), The Gilded Age (HBO), The Morning Show (AppleTV+), Slow Horses (AppleTV+), 3 Body Problem (Netflix)

Outstanding Lead Actress in a Drama Series

Predicted winner: Anna Sawai, Shōgun (FX)

Could win: Carrie Coon, The Gilded Age (HBO/Max)

Other contenders: Jennifer Aniston, The Morning Show (AppleTV+); Maya Erskine, Mr. and Mrs. Smith (Prime Video); Imelda Staunton, The Crown (Netflix); Reese Witherspoon, The Morning Show (AppleTV+)

Outstanding Lead Actor in a Drama Series

Predicted winner: Hiroyuki Sanada, Shōgun (FX)

Could win: Gary Oldman, Slow Horses (AppleTV+)

Other contenders: Idris Elba, Hijack (AppleTV+); Donald Glover, Mr. and Mrs. Smith (Prime Video),;Walton Goggins, Fallout (Prime Video); Dominic West, The Crown (Netflix)

Outstanding Supporting Actress in a Drama Series

Predicted winner: Elizabeth Debicki, The Crown (Netflix)

Could win: Christine Baranski, The Gilded Age (HBO/Max)

Other contenders: Nicole Beharie, The Morning Show (AppleTV+); Greta Lee, The Morning Show (AppleTV+); Lesley Manville, The Crown (Netflix); Karen Pittman, The Morning Show (AppleTV+); Holland Taylor, The Morning Show (AppleTV+)

Outstanding Supporting Actor in a Drama Series

Will win: Tadanobu Asano, Shōgun (FX)

Could win: Takehiro Hira, Shōgun (FX)

Other contenders: Billy Crudup, The Morning Show (AppleTV+); Mark Duplass, The Morning Show (AppleTV+); Jon Hamm, The Morning Show (AppleTV+); Jack Lowden, Slow Horses (AppleTV+); Jonathan Pryce, The Crown (Netflix)

Outstanding Comedy Series

Predicted winner: The Bear (FX)

Could win: Hacks (HBO/Max)

Other contenders: Abbott Elementary (ABC) , Curb Your Enthusiasm (HBO/Max), Only Murders in the Building (Hulu), Palm Royale (AppleTV+), Reservation Dogs (FX), What We Do in the Shadows (FX)

Outstanding Lead Actor in a Comedy Series

Predicted winner: Jeremy Allen White, The Bear (FX)

Could win: Martin Short, Only Murders in the Building (Hulu)

Other contenders: Matt Berry, What We Do in the Shadows (FX); Larry David, Curb Your Enthusiasm (HBO/Max); Steve Martin, Only Murders in the Building (Hulu); D’Pharaoh Woon-A-Tai, Reservation Dogs (FX)

Outstanding Lead Actress in a Comedy Series

Predicted winner: Jean Smart, Hacks (HBO/Max)

Could win: Ayo Edebiri, The Bear (FX)Other contenders: Quinta Brunson, Abbott Elementary (ABC); Selena Gomez, Only Murders in the Building (Hulu); Maya Rudolph, Loot (AppleTV+); Kristen Wiig, Palm Royale (AppleTV+)

Outstanding Supporting Actor in a Comedy Series 

Predicted winner: Ebon Moss-Bachrach, The Bear (FX)

Could win: Paul W. Downs, Hacks (HBO/Max)Other contenders: Lionel Boyce, The Bear (FX); Paul Rudd, Only Murders in the Building (Hulu); Tyler James Williams, Abbott Elementary (ABC); Bowen Yang, Saturday Night Live (NBC)

Outstanding Supporting Actress in a Comedy Series 

Predicted winner: Meryl Streep, Only Murders in the Building (Hulu)

Could win: Hannah Einbinder, Hacks (HBO/Max)Other contenders: Carol Burnett, Palm Royale (AppleTV+); Liza Colón-Zayas, The Bear (FX); Janelle James, Abbott Elementary (ABC); Sheryl Lee Ralph, Abbott Elementary (ABC)

Outstanding Limited or Anthology Series

Predicted winner: Baby Reindeer (Netflix)

Could win: True Detective: Night Country (HBO/Max)Other contenders: Fargo (FX), Lessons in Chemistry (AppleTV+), Ripley (Netflix)

Outstanding Lead Actor in a Limited or Anthology Series or Movie

Predicted winner: Matt Bomer, Fellow Travelers (Showtime)

Could win: Richard Gadd, Baby Reindeer (Netflix)

Other contenders: Jon Hamm, Fargo (FX); Tom Hollander, Feud: Capote vs. the Swans (FX); Andrew Scott, Ripley (Netflix)

Outstanding Lead Actress in a Limited or Anthology Series or Movie

Predicted winner: Jodie Foster, True Detective: Night Country (HBO/Max)

Could win: Brie Larson, Lessons in Chemistry (AppleTV+) Other contenders: Juno Temple, Fargo (FX); Sofía Vergara, Griselda (Netflix) ; Naomi Watts, Feud: Capote vs. The Swans (FX)

Outstanding Supporting Actor in a Limited or Anthology Series or Movie

Predicted winner: Jonathan Bailey, Fellow Travelers (Showtime)

Could win: John Hawkes, True Detective: Night Country (HBO/Max)

Other contenders: Robert Downey Jr., The Sympathizer (HBO/Max); Tom Goodman-Hill, Baby Reindeer (Netflix); Lamorne Morris, Fargo (FX); Lewis Pullman, Lessons in Chemistry (AppleTV+); Treat Williams, Feud: Capote vs. The Swans (FX)

Outstanding Supporting Actress in a Limited or Anthology Series or Movie

Predicted winner: Jessica Gunning, Baby Reindeer (Netflix)

Could win: Kali Reis, True Detective: Night Country (HBO/Max)

Other contenders: Dakota Fanning Ripley (Netflix); Lily Gladstone, Under the Bridge (Hulu); Aja Naomi King, Lessons in Chemistry (AppleTV+); Diane Lane, Feud: Capote vs. The Swans (FX); Nava Mau, Baby Reindeer (Netflix)

Outstanding Directing for a Drama Series

Predicted winner: Frederick E.O. Toye, Shōgun – “Chapter Nine: Crimson Sky” (FX)

Could win: Hiro Murai, Mr. & Mrs. Smith – “First Date” (Prime Video)


Other contenders: Stephen Daldry, The Crown – “Sleep, Dearie Sleep” Netflix); Mimi Leder, The Morning Show – “The Overview Effect” (AppleTV+); Saul Metzstein, Slow Horses – “Strange Games” (AppleTV+); Salli Richardson-Whitfield, Winning Time: The Rise of the Lakers Dynasty (HBO/Max)

Outstanding Directing for a Comedy Series

Predicted winner: Christopher Storer, The Bear – “Fishes” (FX)

Could win: Lucia Aniello, Hacks – “Bulletproof” (HBO/Max)Other contenders: Randall Einhorn, Abbott Elementary – “Party” (ABC); Ramy Youssef, The Bear – “Honeydew” (FX)
; Guy Ritchie, The Gentlemen -”Refined Aggression” (Netflix); Mary Lou Belli, The Ms. Pat Show – “I’m the Pappy” (BET)

Outstanding Directing for a Limited Series

Predicted winner: Weronika Tofilska, Baby Reindeer – “Episode 1” (Netflix)

Could win: Gus Van Sant, Feud: Capote v the Swans – “Pilot” (FX)

Other contenders: Noah Hawley, Fargo – “The Tragedy of the Commons” (FX); Millicent Shelton, Lessons in Chemistry – “Poirot” (AppleTV+); Steve Zaillian, Ripley (Netflix); Issa Lopez, True Detective: Night Country (HBO/MAX)

Outstanding Writing for a Drama Series

Predicted winner: Rachel Kondo, Justin Marks, Shōgun – “Chapter One: Anjin” (FX)

Could win: Francesca Sloane, Donald Glover, Mr. & Mrs. Smith – “First Date” (Prime Video)

Other contenders: Peter Morgan, Meriel Sheibani-Clare, The Crown – “Sleep, Dearie Sleep” (Netflix)
; Geneva Robertson-Dworet, Graham Wagner, Fallout – “The End” (Prime Video); Rachel Kondo, Caillin Puente, Shōgun – “Chapter Nine: Crimson Sky” (FX); Will Smith, Slow Horses – “Negotiating With Tigers” (AppleTV+)

Outstanding Writing for a Limited or Anthology Series or Movie

Predicted winner: Noah Hawley, Fargo – “The Tragedy of the Commons” (FX)

Could win: Richard Gadd, Baby Reindeer (Netflix)

Other contenders: Charlie Brooker, Black Mirror – “Joan is Awful” (Netflix); Ron Nyswaner, Fellow Travelers – “You’re Wonderful” (Showtime); Steven Zaillian, Ripley (Netflix); Issa López, True Detective: Night Country – “Part 6” (HBO/Max)

Outstanding Writing for a Comedy Series

Predicted winner: Lucia Aniello, Paul W. Downs, Jen Statsky, Hacks – “Bulletproof”(HBO/Max)

Could win: Christopher Storer, The Bear – “Fishes” (FX)

Other contenders: Quinta Brunson, Abbott Elementary –  “Career Day” (ABC); Meredith Scardino, Sam Means, Girls5eva – “Orlando” (Netflix); Chris Kelly, Sarah Schneider, The Other Two – “Brooke Hosts A Night of Undeniable Good”  (HBO/Max); Jake Bender, Zach Dunn, What We Do in the Shadows – “Pride Parade” (FX)

Outstanding Talk Series

Predicted winner: Jimmy Kimmel Live! (ABC)

Could win: Late Night With Seth Meyers (NBC)

Other contenders: The Daily Show (Comedy Central), The Late Show With Stephen Colbert (CBS)

Outstanding Reality Competition Series

Predicted winner: The Traitors (Peacock)

Could win: RuPaul’s Drag Race (MTV)

Other contenders: The Amazing Race (CBS), Top Chef (Bravo), The Voice (NBC)