Final 2025 Oscar Nomination Predictions: BEST ACTRESS

Stop me, oh oh, stop me. Stop me if you think that you’ve heard this one before. Like in Best Actor (and honestly, several categories) I think we have four safe spots in and then its gets really tricky. Really, really tricky.
We have four actresses who have secured BAFTA, Critics Choice, Golden Globe and Screen Actors Guild nominations: Demi Moore in The Substance, Mikey Madison in Anora, Karla Sofía Gascón in Emilia Pérez and Cynthia Erivo in Wicked, giving us something old, something new, something borrowed, something…green? I’ll workshop that a bit.
Even after The Substance won the screenplay award at Cannes last summer, Demi Moore felt like a far outside shot. A never-nominated, largely unrespected and disrespected actress who went from being one of the biggest stars of the 1980s and 90s with St. Elmo’s Fire, Ghost and A Few Good Men to become the highest paid actress in the world ($12.5M for 1996’s Striptease) to then a smattering of unsubstantial appearances in film and television in the 00s and 10s (her minor comeback in 2003’s Charlie’s Angels: Full Throttle notwithstanding). Plus, in a hardcore body horror film? Well, look at her now. The Golden Globe winner (the first positive award of her career riddled with Razzies) and in a film that’s both a box office hit and a critics and industry favorite. Her time has come.
Scream queen Mikey Madison cut her teeth on 2019’s Once Upon a Time… in Hollywood and 2022’s Scream, getting set on fire in both, no less, and in Pamela Adlon’s FX series Better Things, but there isn’t a more breakthrough ingenue this season than her role and performance in Anora. She’s the overwhelming critics’ favorite with 25, albeit not from any of the trifecta (LAFCA, NSFC, NYFCC) despite her film being the critics’ leader as well, winning Los Angeles. Her and her film getting blanked at the Globes for all six of their nominations was curious, but was she ever beating Moore there?
Breakthrough and Oscar history are set to be made when and if Karla Sofía Gascón is nominated for Emilia Pérez, as she will become the first out trans woman to be nominated for Best Actress, or any acting Oscar for that matter. She actually comes in with the most, having also won the Cannes Best Actress award (shared with her three female co-stars) and the European Film Academy’s Best European Actress award. While I don’t think she’ll be negatively impacted by this year’s ‘screen time’ issues – Gascón actually has less than supporting actress frontrunner co-star Zoe Saldaña – the Academy could do something wild and off the rails like when they nominated LaKeith Stanfield in supporting after his lead campaign, but I don’t see that happening here. The same argument was weighed against Lily Gladstone last year, with some people even thinking that voters would reject her lead status in Killers of the Flower Moon and shuffle her to supporting, but that didn’t happen. She went on to win the Globe and SAG. A vigilant fighter on social media in the face of intense and non-stop transphobia, Gascón also got to deliver the winning speech at the Globes when Emilia Pérez snagged the Best Picture (Musical or Comedy) win and that was just another notch in her path to this nomination. Bingo, as Emilia would say.
As a returning nominee and in the year’s biggest film, Cynthia Erivo in Wicked should be able to secure her second Best Actress nomination, putting her is singular territory as the only Black British actress to earn more than one Oscar nomination. This kind of ‘history’ is always a double-edged sword as it’s something to celebrate but also the horrible reality of an organization in its 97th year where a first like this is possible. Her gravity-defying work in the film (you hate me right now, don’t you) delivering the film’s finale number is more than enough to get her in, and for a film that’s going to push close to double digit numbers. The fact that it’s a part one of a two part film won’t have any negative impact on her nomination possibility, at least I dont think it will. Not at this stage. Unless the seemingly never ending and self-unaware press tour just hit a breaking point for some voters but then, most voters aren’t chronically online weirdos so again, not likely.
So, here go. If those four are a locked in four (and they kinda are) then we have one spot left and two actresses who both have a rightful claim to it. Marianne Jean-Baptiste in Hard Truths is one of the year’s most celebrated performances, securing the LAFCA/NSFC/NYFCC trifecta for Best Actress, also earning a BAFTA nomination. The deeply complicated character of Pansy in Mike Leigh’s film presents the audience with something we rarely get to see; a violently misanthropic woman so specifically and richly detailed by Leigh and Jean-Baptiste in its deconstruction of Black sorrow and joy in such a way that transformative doesn’t even begin to cover it. Working in tandem with co-star Michele Austin (who should have been in lockstep Jean-Baptiste this season), the Oscar-nominated actress rips open the challenges of motherhood and marriage in “unvarnished but ruthlessly compelling ways,” as Brandon Lewis said in his feature profile on the actress. Pansy is the kind of character than Oscars trip over themselves to honor when it’s a man, throughout the season inevitable misogyny and misogynoir crept its way in, describing Pansy as ‘irredeemable’ and ‘unlikeable’ as if that’s ever been a proper criticism levied against male characters of equally insufferable value. But, we’ve been here before. Sally Hawkins in Mike Leigh’s 2008 film Happy-Go-Lucky was on her way to an Oscar nomination after also securing the critics’ trifecta plus the Berlin and Musical/Comedy Golden Globe winner for Best Actress. Nothing could stop her. Except for BAFTA. Except for SAG. The critics’ favorite didn’t translate to the industry in any way and Hawkins missed out, but not without the bit of salt in the wound of Leigh, a branch favorite, earning the film’s sole Oscar nomination for his screenplay. To date, no Leigh actress has gotten in without the film’s screenplay getting in as well and since I’m not currently predicting him to get in this year…
Fernanda Torres in I’m Still Here represents a wealth of history and context in this category, not the least of which is her stellar performance as Eunice Paiva in the true story of a woman whose husband is kidnapped at the height of the Brazilian dictatorship in 1971. It’s a flashpoint in international history that feels equally as relevant today. It’s a full circle moment with Torres being directed by Walter Salles, who directed her mother to an Oscar nomination for 1998’s Central Station and Fernanda Montenegro makes a brief but emotional cameo here. But that isn’t to say that narrative and performance can push Torres all the way. Sony Pictures Classics is historically so good at this category but was late on the support for the film, seemingly favoring Pedro Almodór’s The Room Next Door and its Globe-nominated star Tilda Swinton. Both films received qualifying December releases but post-Globes rollouts. With Angelina Jolie (Maria) and Kate Winslet (Lee) presumably out, that puts Torres in the unique spot of being the only ‘real’ person in the lineup. We haven’t had a Best Actress lineup that didn’t feature a biopic or real life person since 2010. While Torres was not ever a likely a chance at SAG, she missed the BAFTA longlist entirely and comes in with not only no other precursors than her Golden Globe win but zero support from critics in the way that Jean-Baptiste has, but in a season that was dominated by just three women it’s not too hard to see why. It’s a steep hill to climb, much less mount. But…
Statistically, only two winners of the Best Actress Golden Globe for drama have not scored Oscar nominations but both come with asterisks and caveats, big ones. Kate Winslet, who won both Best Actress for 2008’s Revolutionary Road and Supporting Actress for The Reader that year at the Globes then was bumped up to lead for the latter and won there (if you want to look of the main culprit of Hawkins’ miss, go no further than Winslet). The other was Madame Sousatzka’s Shirley MacLaine, who was part of an historic (and silly) three-way tie at the 1988 Globes, while two of her co-winners – Sigourney Weaver for Gorillas in the Mist and Jodie Foster in The Accused – went on to earn Oscar nominations, with Foster winning. Now, I know we can get hung up on stats and every year is seeing one or more fall, time will just inevitably do that. So how did Torres find herself the winner ahead of the likes of Nicole Kidman and Angelina Jolie? Putting the performance aside for a moment, as some voters often do, the win mirrors, just a bit, Isabelle Huppert’s win in this category for Elle over Natalie Portman in Jackie (a previous Best Actress winner) and Amy Adams in Arrival (a previous Oscar nominee who would be the year’s shocking Oscar snub). Huppert’s film was also nominated in the then called Best Foreign Film category (where it won but was not nominated at the Oscars). I’m Still Here was Globe-nominated but lost to, ironically, France’s Emilia Pérez. There’s also the dramatic changes in membership of the Golden Globes, which for nearly 80 years was limited to not more than 93 members until the weight of their controversies, both in terms of racial makeup of the membership and the ease with which they could be bribed, opened the door to a membership that is now over 330 and without an LA-based requirement. Rumor wants to say that the 30+ contingent of Brazilian voters all singularly voted for Torres, entirely possible, but even if they did that’s only half of what would be needed to win outright so her support came from the broader voting body.
Similar to how Supporting Actor unfolded over the last few months, turning two-time Oscar winner Denzel Washington from frontrunner to also-ran, the idea of previous Oscar winners like Nicole Kidman and Angelina Jolie going from mortal locks to not even competitive for the 5th or 6th spot is a fascinating turn of events. Kidman received the Volpi Cup at Venice and Best Actress from the National Board of Review (her first major precursor critics win ever…ever) for her work in Babygirl, where she’s received some of the best notices of her career and for a film that, by Kidman standards, is a bonafide box office hit. She nabbed a Golden Globe nomination (where she was heavily predicted to win), a Gotham nom and a BAFTA longlist appearance (where she failed to earn a nomination in a field of six, same goes for Critics Choice). Her campaign with A24 has been stellar, especially for such a late-breaking release (Christmas Day) so what went wrong?
For Jolie, despite a high profile role entering the MCU in The Marvels, she’s been largely seen as reclusive from the spotlight, instead opting to stay behind the camera and behind the scenes. Her role and performance in Pablo Larraín’s Maria, portraying legendary opera singer Maria Callas, has screamed shoe-in all season. A biopic. A comeback. A sad Larraín girl. All of the pieces were there and the campaign by Netflix, taking the film to Venice, Telluride, NYFF and more was solid. Jolie was present and open and vulnerable in a way she hadn’t been with the press or public in years. While she earned Critics Choice and Golden Globe nominations for her performance, regional groups didn’t buy in and the film was ghosted completely from the BAFTA longlists, all but disappearing a path for her. I think part of the reason for this is the ‘comeback’ narrative became diluted this year with Demi Moore truly absorbing the majority of it and Pamela Anderson (The Last Showgirl) siphoning off some, enough to get her Golden Globe and SAG nominations (she also failed to hit the BAFTA longlist, unlike her nominated co-star Jamie Lee Curtis).
Kate Winslet (Lee) also falls into this category as a previous winner and while she earned a Golden Globe nomination and had a quick but impressive campaign, she’s failed to show up anywhere else outside of making the BAFTA longlist cut. Tilda Swinton, a supporting actress Oscar winner, also nabbed a Globe nod (and a European Film Academy nomination) but The Room Next Door has been a nothingburger in this race. Props to Sony Pictures Classics though for pushing both Swinton and Julianne Moore in lead and not splitting them up.
Let’s look at some of the stats, history and records we could see depending on how the lineup shakes out.
-We’ve never had a Best Actress lineup consisting of four contenders from the Golden Globe Musical or Comedy category before so unless one of Moore, Madison, Gascón or Erivo misses, history will be made.
-If Gascón is nominated she will be the first out trans woman nominated for an acting Oscar.
-If both Gascón and Torres are nominated, it would be just the fourth lineup with two non-English language performances and the first in nearly 50 years, when Marie-Christine Barrault and Liv Ullman were nominated for 1976’s Cousin Cousine and Face to Face, respectively. The year before we had Isabelle Adjani in The Story of Adele H. and Carol Kane in Hester Street then 10 years prior with Anouk Amiée in A Man and a Woman and Ida Kamińska in The Shop in Main Street.
-If both Gascón and Erivo are nominated, it will only be the second time that two performances from musicals have been nominated and the first since 1964 with Julie Andrews in Mary Poppins (who won) and Debbie Reynolds in The Unsinkable Molly Brown.
-If either Erivo or Jean-Baptiste are nominated, they will be the first Black British actresses nominated multiple times.
-The last time a Golden Globe Musical or Comedy winner lost to another nominee in the same category was Madonna in 1996 for Evita. She beat out Frances McDormand in Fargo, who would go on to win the Oscar while Madonna was not nominated.
-On the outside chance that Winslet is nominated, it would put her alongside Geraldine Page, Glenn Close, Judi Dench and Cate Blanchett in the group of actresses who have earned eight nominations.
-Fernanda Torres would be the 5th actress nominated after her mother (see above), joining Judy Garland and Liza Minnelli, Goldie Hawn and Kate Hudson, Diane Ladd and Laura Dern (still the only pair nominated in the same year), and Janet Leigh and Jamie Lee Curtis. Similarly, we could also have Isabella Rossellini in supporting joining her mother Ingrid Bergman. Interestingly, in all but one of those, only one from each pair – Liza, Goldie, Laura and Jamie Lee – has won the Oscar, so far.
Here are my final 2025 Oscar nomination predictions in Best Actress.
1. Demi Moore – The Substance (MUBI) BAFTA, CCA, GG, Gotham, SAG, Spirit |
2. Mikey Madison – Anora (NEON) BAFTA, CCA, GG, Gotham, SAG, Spirit |
3. Karla Sofía Gascón – Emilia Pérez (Netflix) BAFTA, Cannes, CCA EFA, GG, SAG |
4. Cynthia Erivo – Wicked Part 1 (Universal Pictures) BAFTA, CCA, GG, SAG |
5. Fernanda Torres – I’m Still Here (Sony Pictures Classics) GG |
6. Marianne Jean-Baptiste – Hard Truths (Bleecker Street) BAFTA, CCA, Gotham |
7. Angelina Jolie – Maria (Netflix) GG, CCA |
8. Nicole Kidman – Babygirl (A24) Venice, Gotham, GG |
9. Pamela Anderson – The Last Showgirl (Roadside Attractions) Gotham, GG, SAG |
10. Saoirse Ronan – The Outrun (Sony Pictures Classics) BAFTA, Gotham |
Next up (alphabetical):
Amy Adams – Nightbitch (Searchlight Pictures) GG, Spirit |
Ryan Destiny – The Fire Inside (Amazon MGM) Spirit |
Tilda Swinton – The Room Next Door (Sony Pictures Classics) GG |
Kate Winslet – Lee (Roadside Attractions/Vertical Entertainment) EFA, GG |
Zendaya – Challengers (Amazon MGM) GG |

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