FINAL 2026 Oscar Predictions: CINEMATOGRAPHY

With American Society of Cinematographers (ASC), BAFTA and British Society of Cinematographers (BSC), Michael Bauman has the goods to win the Oscar for One Battle After Another.

While Autumn Durald Arkapaw (Sinners) made Oscar history as the first woman of color nominated for Best Cinematography, and earned the most overall critics wins for her work (yet, bizarrely, lost Critics Choice), when it came to the industry she needed at least ASC to give her a fighting chance with the Academy. Only one film ever has lost those three and went on to Oscar glory, 2001’s The Lord of the Rings: The Fellowship of the Ring, which beat The Man Who Wasn’t There (that film’s only nomination).

Even if you rule out BSC, you can go all the way back to 1990 and of the 15 films that won both ASC and BAFTA, all but two won the Oscar; the aforementioned The Man Who Wasn’t There and 2006’s Children of Men. Again, a lone nominee. Makes for a hard argument in favor of Sinners or Train Dreams being able to suddenly win in the end but the Academy of 2026 is not the Academy of 1990. So, is there a chance? Sure, but in that time all branches of the Academy have grown internationally and without that support it would be a NGNG prediction.

Here are my final winner predictions in Cinematography for the 98th Academy Awards, which will take place on March 15, live at the Dolby Theater in Hollywood, California.

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Erik Anderson

Erik Anderson is the founder/owner and Editor-in-Chief of AwardsWatch and has always loved all things Oscar, having watched the Academy Awards since he was in single digits; making lists, rankings and predictions throughout the show. This led him down the path to obsessing about awards. Much later, he found himself in film school and the film forums of GoldDerby, and then migrated over to the former Oscarwatch (now AwardsDaily), before breaking off to create AwardsWatch in 2013.

He is a Rotten Tomatoes-approved critic, accredited by the Cannes Film Festival, Telluride Film Festival, Toronto International Film Festival and more, is a member of the International Cinephile Society (ICS), The Society of LGBTQ Entertainment Critics (GALECA), Critics Choice Association (CCA), San Francisco Bay Area Film Critics Circle (SFBAFCC) and the International Press Academy. Among his many achieved goals with AwardsWatch, he has given a platform to underrepresented writers and critics and supplied them with access to film festivals and the industry and calls the Bay Area his home where he lives with his husband and son.

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