Here we go.
After one of the wildest and most unpredictable Oscar seasons in recent memory with regards to the top category, Best Picture, the Gold Rush Gang and myself have finally settled on our final Oscar winner predictions. Or have we?
LISTEN: Oscar Podcast #65: FINAL Oscar winner predictions with Vanity Fair’s Joanna Robinson
Three films have #1 spots among the 10 members: The Shape of Water, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri and Get Out. Each of those films comes in with statistical obstacles to overcome. The Shape of Water has the most nominations, won PGA and DGA but missed SAG ensemble (La La Land redux), Three Billboards missed Director (and Martin McDonaugh is no Ben Affleck here) and Get Out got no craft nominations – an 84-year stat. Jason is looking to Lady Bird as a possible spoiler on Sunday, putting it in 2nd behind The Shape of Water. Regardless of what wins, there will be a lot of post-mortem conversation on Monday morning. We’ll be looking at some stats as vulnerable in the future and see which ones are still standing to go another round next season.
BEST PICTURE | Erik Anderson | Bryan Bonafede | Greg Howard | Evan Kost | Jason Osiason | Kenneth Polishchuk | Denizcan Sürücü | Richard Anthony | Şükrü Söğüt | Matt Dinn | TOTAL POINTS | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
1 | The Shape of Water (Fox Searchlight) | 2 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 96 |
2 | Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri (Fox Searchlight) | 3 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 88 |
3 | Get Out (Universal) | 1 | 3 | 1 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 83 |
4 | Lady Bird (A24) | 4 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 73 |
5 | Dunkirk (Warner Bros) | 9 | 5 | 8 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 53 |
6 | Phantom Thread (Focus Features) | 5 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 7 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 50 |
7 | Call Me By Your Name (Sony Pictures Classics) | 6 | 7 | 5 | 7 | 6 | 8 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 43 |
8 | Darkest Hour (Focus Features) | 7 | 9 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 7 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 31 |
9 | The Post (20th Century Fox) | 8 | 8 | 9 | 9 | 8 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 23 |
BEST DIRECTOR | Erik Anderson | Bryan Bonafede | Greg Howard | Evan Kost | Jason Osiason | Kenneth Polishchuk | Denizcan Sürücü | Richard Anthony | Şükrü Söğüt | Matt Dinn | TOTAL POINTS | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
1 | Guillermo del Toro - The Shape of Water | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 100 |
2 | Christopher Nolan - Dunkirk | 4 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 87 |
3 | Jordan Peele - Get Out | 2 | 3 | 2 | 4 | 5 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 5 | 3 | 77 |
4 | Greta Gerwig - Lady Bird | 3 | 5 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 72 |
5 | Paul Thomas Anderson - Phantom Thread | 5 | 4 | 5 | 5 | 4 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 3 | 5 | 64 |
BEST ACTOR | Erik Anderson | Bryan Bonafede | Greg Howard | Evan Kost | Jason Osiason | Kenneth Polishchuk | Denizcan Sürücü | Richard Anthony | Şükrü Söğüt | Matt Dinn | TOTAL POINTS | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
1 | Gary Oldman - Darkest Hour | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 100 |
2 | Daniel Day-Lewis - Phantom Thread | 3 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 84 |
2 | Timothée Chalamet - Call Me by Your Name | 2 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 84 |
4 | Daniel Kaluuya - Get Out | 4 | 4 | 3 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 4 | 4 | 72 |
5 | Denzel Washington - Roman J. Israel, Esq. | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 60 |
BEST ACTRESS | Erik Anderson | Bryan Bonafede | Greg Howard | Evan Kost | Jason Osiason | Kenneth Polishchuk | Denizcan Sürücü | Richard Anthony | Şükrü Söğüt | Matt Dinn | TOTAL POINTS | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
1 | Frances McDormand - Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 100 |
2 | Sally Hawkins - The Shape of Water | 2 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 89 |
3 | Saoirse Ronan - Lady Bird | 3 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 79 |
4 | Margot Robbie - I, Tonya | 4 | 2 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 72 |
5 | Meryl Streep - The Post | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 60 |
Next: Best Supporting Actor & Actress, Best Adapted & Original Screenplays
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