Forum Oscar Poll Results – April 2015: The Revenant, Joy and Bridge of Spies Rule

You’ll probably notice some big changes in the vote totals from last month and it’s understandable. March was the first month of the new Forum Oscar Polls and excitement for that first vote was intense. Now that it’s died down a bit I think people realize that we’re at the beginning of the year for Oscar predicting and eased off a bit. We’ll keep seeing these numbers fluctuate from month to month based on everything from film festivals, test screenings as well as increased interest in the race as the year goes on.
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First off, in Best Picture, we see that last month’s #1, The Weinstein Company‘s Carol, has dropped to #4. My guess on that is that most voting was done before the Cannes announcement and that next month we’ll see the film get a big bump. Despite the apparent behind the scenes trouble on Warner Brothers‘ The Revenant, the Leonardo DiCaprio starrer jumps from 3rd to 1st. 20th Century Fox‘s Joy and Dreamworks‘s Bridge of Spies hold steady. We have two new entries this month, Fox Searchlight‘s Demolition at #9 and the recently acquired Focus Features biopic of Emmilene Pankhurst, Suffragette. The British women’s right to vote pic bursts onto the list at #6.

BEST PICTURE

01. The Revenant (52) (March – 66)
02. Joy (49) (March – 68)
03. Bridge of Spies (47) (March – 63)
04. Carol (43) (March – 71)
05. The Danish Girl (40) (March – 58)
06. Suffragette (36) (NEW)
07. The Hateful Eight (35) (March – 57)
08. Steve Jobs (30) (March – 21)
09. Demolition (27) (NEW)
10. Inside Out (19) (March – 20)

Off list: Beasts of No Nation (March – 32), Brooklyn (March – 27)
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We have the same top 5 in director as last month, just moving a few places around. David O. Russell maintains his #3 spot, while Alejandro González Iñárritu and Steven Spielberg switch places with Spielberg now at #1. Impressive since we barely have a few set stills to go off of. But then, it’s crazy to discount someone with 7 directing nominations, including 2 wins, to his name. Todd Haynes and Quentin Tarantino hold their #4 and #5 spots, respectively. Only one newcomer this month and it’s Sarah Gavron, the director of Suffragette, which also made a big debut in Best Picture.

BEST DIRECTOR

01. Steven Spielberg, Bridge of Spies (49) (March – 54)
02. Alejandro González Iñárritu, The Revenant (46) (March – 55)
03. David O. Russell, Joy (41) (March – 52)
04. Todd Haynes, Carol (32) (March – 43)
05. Quentin Tarantino, The Hateful Eight (22) (March – 31)

06. Tom Hooper, The Danish Girl (20) (March – 20)
07. Danny Boyle, Steve Jobs (17) (March – 19)
08. Sarah Gavron, Suffragette (14) (NEW)
09. Cary Fukunaga, Beasts of No Nation (10) (March – 19)
10. Jean-Marc Vallée, Demolition (5) (March – 14)

Off list: Gus Van Sant, The Sea of Trees (March – 4)
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Leonardo DiCaprio and Eddie Redmayne remain locked in a heated battle and I think they will for the majority, if not all, of the season. The two are even closer now than last month with DiCaprio holding the tiniest of margins of a lead. Michael Fassbender in Steve Jobs and Bradley Cooper in Adam Jones make vote total jumps while Jake Gyllenhaal in Demolition and Tom Hanks in Bridge of Spies see their numbers fall. A single new entry with Ian McKellen as Mr. Holmes joins the race.

BEST ACTOR

01. Leonardo DiCaprio — The Revenant (82) (March – 99)
02. Eddie Redmayne — The Danish Girl (81) (March – 94)
03. Michael Fassbender — Steve Jobs (58) (March – 46)
04. Bradley Cooper — Adam Jones (56) (March – 45)
04. Jake Gyllenhaal — Demolition (56) (March – 77)

06. Tom Hanks — Bridge of Spies (46) (March – 55)
07. Bryan Cranston — Trumbo (12) (March – 43)
08. Ian McKellen — Mr. Holmes (10) (NEW)
08. Joaquin Phoenix — Irrational Man (10) (March – 12)
10. Ben Foster — Icon (8) (March – 14)

Off list: Matthew McConaughey, The Sea of Trees (March – 12)
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Not to anyone’s surprise, Best Actress gets the most votes of any poll with two previous winners, Cate Blanchett and Jennifer Lawrence, procuring more than 100 votes each. But watch out for the freight train that is Suffragette as Carey Mulligan roars in at #3 with 92 votes, in what looks like the expense of The Danish Girl’s Alicia Vikander. It will be interesting to watch this race because Focus Features, which is handling both Suffragette and The Danish Girl, is going to have to make some hard decisions on how and who to push. While Mulligan is the clear lead of her film, Vikander could be put in Supporting. That appears to be what the sense is among the forum voters as well as the Gold Rush Gang. Perennial nominee and three-time Oscar winner Meryl Streep maintains her top 5 position, while this year’s Best Actress winner, Julianne Moore, falls to #6. The only new entry, Sally Field, is now a non-starter as it was recently announced that Roadside Attractions would be pushing her film to 2016.

BEST ACTRESS

01. Cate Blanchett — Carol (120) (March – 140)
02. Jennifer Lawrence — Joy (108) (March – 126)
03. Carey Mulligan — Suffragette (92) (March – 46)
04. Saoirse Ronan — Brooklyn (71) (March – 78)
05. Meryl Streep — Ricki and the Flash (57) (March – 75)

06. Julianne Moore — Freeheld (42) (March – 71)
07. Sandra Bullock — Our Brand Is Crisis (25) (March – 29)
07. Charlotte Rampling — 45 Years (25)
07. Alicia Vikander — The Danish Girl (25) (March – 59)
10. Sally Field — Hello, My Name Is Doris (11) (NEW)

Off list: Maggie Smith, The Lady in the Van (March – 17); Lily Tomlin, Grandma (March – 17)
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Possibly the only fallout from the kerfuffle between Alejandro González Iñárritu and Tom Hardy on the set of The Revenant (in which Hardy apparently put Iñárritu in a chokehold) is Hardy himself. His comfortable #1 position last month is now a tie for #2 with Robert De Niro. Still, not a bad place to be. Samuel L. Jackson looks to be on target for a second nomination, which would be his first in 20 years. Christian Bale pops up as the highest new entry with The Big Short and Billy Bob Thornton debuts at #9 with Our Brand is Crisis. Although there is debate as to whether or not the film would be landing in 2015, it is Warner Brothers’s best shot at a supporting actor nomination and we now the strangely strong record they have in getting actors in this category over the last 10 years. But watch out for Joaquim de Almeida in the same film. Despite Thornton’s status as a previous Oscar winner it’s de Almeida that’s beginning to generate buzz.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

01. Samuel L. Jackson, The Hateful Eight (53) (March – 57)
02. Robert De Niro, Joy (49) (March – 45)
02. Tom Hardy, The Revenant (49) March – 69)
04. Idris Elba, Beasts of No Nation (25) (March – 44)
04. Jude Law, Genius (25) (March – 27)

06. Christian Bale, The Big Short (18) (NEW)
07. Seth Rogan, Steve Jobs (15) (March – 19)
08. Bradley Cooper, Joy (12) (March – 16)
09. Billy Bob Thornton, Our Brand is Crisis (11) (NEW)
10. Benicio del Toro, Sicario (9)
10. Mark Rylance, Bridge of Spies (9)

Off the list: Ken Wantanabe, The Sea of Trees (March – 25); Édgar Ramirez, Joy (March – 15); Michael Keaton, Spotlight (March – 12)
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Rooney Mara maintains her hold on #1 this month and Diane Ladd moves up one to #2 as Naomi Watts tumbles 21 points to #3. It in this category that most feel The Danish Girl‘s Alicia Vikander stands the best chance at a nomination and her improved numbers show that. Jennifer Jason Leigh holds onto the top five in hopes of her first Oscar nomination in her 30+ year career but she’s just barely staving off Helena Bonham Carter in Suffragette at the moment. Ellen Page drops out of the top five and Kristen Stewart debuts at #10 for her superb turn in Clouds of Sils Maria.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
01. Rooney Mara, Carol (66) (March – 85)
02. Diane Ladd, Joy (55) (March – 59)
03. Naomi Watts, Demolition (48) (March – 69)
04. Alicia Vikander, The Danish Girl (41) (March – 22)
05. Jennifer Jason Leigh, The Hateful Eight (28) (March – 45)

06. Helena Bonham Carter, Suffragette (25) (NEW)
07. Ellen Page, Freeheld (23) (March – 48)
08. Marion Cotillard, Macbeth (19) (March – 27)
09. Kate Winslet, Steve Jobs (18) (March – 21)
10. Kristen Stewart, Clouds of Sils Maria (14) (NEW)

Off list: Nicole Kidman, Genius (March – 18); Helen Mirren, Trumbo (March – 15)