Forum Oscar Poll Results – April 2016: Birth of a Nation, Silence, Billy Lynn Early Frontrunners

We have the first Forum Oscar Poll results for the 2017 Oscar race.

Right out of the gate we have five strong frontrunners in Best Picture with the top three being very close. The Birth of a Nation, Silence and Billy Lynn’s Long Halftime Walk lead the charge with strong showings for Manchester by the Sea and Loving. The films represent a wide range of studios from big players (Paramount) to mid-level indies (Fox Searchlight, Focus Features) and even streaming (Amazon Studios, with theatrical distribution from Roadside Attractions).

In the acting categories we’re anticipating a dramatic left turn from the two years of all-white nominees with POC possibly grabbing mentions in every category and with Best Actress looking very likely to be the first time in over 40 years that two black actresses were nominated in the lead category. The last time was Cicely Tyson (Sounder) and Diana Ross (Lady Sings the Blues) in 1973. They both lost to Liza Minelli in Cabaret. There’s even a chance for THREE black actresses to be nominated next year if Taraji P. Henson makes it in for Hidden Figures. Watch for her to show up in next month’s poll results. The drama Moonlight is also gathering steam and we should see that next month as well as possible placement for Naomie Harris, Mahershala Ali and Andre Holland. With Nate Parker (The Birth of a Nation) a likely candidate in Best Actor (along with Denzel Washington in Fences) that would be quite a difference from the last two years.

While it’s obviously still very early in the year and with Cannes just around the corner we still think these first set of predictions are pretty strong. But then every year sees films that are ‘good on paper’ that end up being failed Oscar bait, have no buzz or box office or just don’t connect with AMPAS. The predictions cover the voting period of March 1 – March 31 but will be referred to as ‘April 2016’ results (unlike in previous years where I referred to each new set of predictions based on the previous month they were collected). Here’s where we were last year at this time.

BEST PICTURE

1. The Birth of a Nation (39 votes)
2. Silence (38 votes)
3. Billy Lynn’s Long Halftime Walk (36 votes)
4. Manchester by the Sea (30 votes)
5. Loving (29 votes)

6. Fences (14 votes)
7. Story of Your Life (12 votes)
8. Lion (11 votes)
9. Passengers (10 votes)
10. Sully (10 votes)
11. War Machine (10 votes)

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BEST DIRECTOR

1. Martin Scorsese — Silence (38 votes)
2. Ang Lee — Billy Lynn’s Long Halftime Walk (35 votes)
3. Jeff Nichols — Loving (26 votes)
4. Nate Parker — The Birth of a Nation (23 votes)
5. Kenneth Lonergan — Manchester by the Sea (13 votes)

6. Damien Chazelle — La La Land (9 votes)
7. Denzel Washington — Fences (9 votes)
8. Clint Eastwood — Sully (6 votes)
9. Garth Davis — Lion (4 votes)
10. Oliver Stone — Snowden (4 votes)
11. Morten Tyldum — Passengers (4 votes)
12. Robert Zemeckis — Five Seconds of Silence (4 votes)

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BEST ACTOR

1. Casey Affleck — Manchester by the Sea (96 votes)
2. Andrew Garfield – Silence (85 votes)
3. Joel Edgerton – Loving (71 votes)
4. Nate Parker — The Birth of a Nation (69 votes)
5. Denzel Washington — Fences (57 votes)

6. Tom Hanks – Sully (29 votes)
7. Michael Keaton — The Founder (25 votes)
8. Colin Firth — Deep Water (20 votes)
9. Woody Harrelson – Wilson (19 votes)
10. Michael Fassbender — The Light Between Oceans (16 votes)

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BEST ACTRESS

1. Viola Davis – Fences (134 votes)
2. Ruth Negga – Loving (129 votes)
3. Emily Blunt — The Girl on the Train (95 votes)
4. Jessica Chastain — The Zookeeper’s Wife (67 votes)
5. Amy Adams — Story of Your Life (65 votes)

6. Meryl Streep — Florence Foster Jenkins (49 votes)
7. Amy Adams — Nocturnal Animals (44 votes)
8. Annette Bening — 20th Century Women (35 votes)
9. Emma Stone — La La Land (34 votes)
10. Michelle Pfeiffer — Beat-up Little Seagull (33 votes)

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BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

1. Liam Neeson — Silence (76 votes)
2. Steve Martin — Billy Lynn’s Long Halftime Walk (54 votes)
3. Armie Hammer — The Birth of a Nation (38 votes)
4. Adam Driver — Silence (36 votes)
5. Michael Shannon — Loving (36 votes)

6. Oscar Isaac – The Promise (20 votes)
7. Eddie Murphy — Richard Pryor: Is It Something I Said? (15 votes)
8. Other (13 votes)
9. Jude Law — Genius (12 votes)
10. Aaron Eckhart — Sully (10 votes)
11. Michael Shannon — Nocturnal Animals (10 votes)

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BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

1. Michelle Williams — Manchester by the Sea (78 votes)
2. Rachel Weisz — The Light Between Oceans (47 votes)
3. Kristen Stewart — Billy Lynn’s Long Halftime Walk (33 votes)
4. Laura Dern — Wilson (31 votes)
5. Annette Bening — 20^th Century Women (28 votes)

6. Saoirse Ronan — The Seagull (24 votes)
7. Katey Sagal — Bleed For This (23 votes)
8. Aja Naomi King — The Birth of a Nation (22 votes)
9. Nicole Kidman — Lion (20 votes)
10. Julianne Moore — Maggie’s Plan (15 votes)

You can participate in future polls by joining the forums and voting here.