Forum Oscar Poll Results – July 2014: Boyhood and Selma Soar, Big Eyes Tumbles

The forum Oscar poll results for July are in and while some films and performances maintain consistency (Foxcatcher, Unbroken) others have found themselves either soaring or floundering. The big move up this month were the massive gain for Richard Linklater’s Boyhood, which enjoyed bumps in Best Picture (where it debuts at #9), Best Director (Linklater, debuting at #7), Supporting Actress (Patricia Arquette, debuting at #8) and Original Screenplay (moving up to #2). While some of those placements seem like a soft start, if you take a look at how August’s polls are shaping up the film is in store for another huge impact on next month’s results.  

Indie director Ava DuVernay’s Selma also found itself bumped up into all major categories in a BIG way, including top 5 placement for Lead Actor David Oyelowo and the film’s screenplay. DuVernay herself and Supporting Actress Carmen Ejogo each find themselves just outside at #6 in their categories. The film debuts in the Best Picture poll at #7, nipping at the heels of Christopher Nolan’s Interstellar. With the release of that film’s longer trailer this month, expect to see some movement there.

The release of production stills and the first trailer for Into the Woods was met with mixed response but don’t expect any change for Meryl Streep. Anna Kendrick, however, is currently seeing her top 5 placement in Supporting Actress in serious jeopardy.  

Birdman also came to the table with an international poster and trailer to rave reviews but also some questions that it may to be too offbeat for AMPAS. That film, and its performers and crew, have seen consistent increases month to month so far.

The big fall this month came from Tim Burton’s Big Eyes. Not only does the film fall out of the top 10 (to a measly 14%) but Christoph Waltz and the screenplay have both been dropped from the top 5 and worst of all, Burton wound up with a whopping 0 votes in Best Director. Zilch. And this was after being a contender just one month ago. Why such a precipitous drop, you ask? Well, after a dismal preview screening (attending by many of our members) and no festival appearances on the horizon (unless Harvey stages a Telluride comeback for the film) have led to this downfall. The only thing saved was Amy Adams, who maintains nearly all of her strength from last month.

Inherent Vice is one of the few question marks left in this race. Without any production stills or a trailer (even a teaser), we don’t have much to go on. Word is that it may be too crazy in tone and comedic (even likened to The Big Lebowski) but it is the Centerpiece film for the New York Film Festival so we should have something by then.

 

BEST PICTURE

01. Foxcatcher (89%) (June – 87%) (May – 78%)
02. Birdman (86%) (June – 81%) (May – 69%)
03. Unbroken (80%) (June – 71%) (May – 67%)
04. Gone Girl (75%) (June – 81%) (May – 81%)
05. Inherent Vice (73%) (June – 73%) (May – 83%)
06. Interstellar (71%) (June – 75%) (May – 66%)
07. Selma (65%) (NEW)
08. The Imitation Game (64%) (June – 35%) (May – 22%)
09. Boyhood (41%) (NEW)
10. Wild (39%) (NEW)

BEST DIRECTOR

01. Alejandro González Iñárritu, Birdman (80%) (June – 67%) (May – 59%)
02. Bennett Miller, Foxcatcher (78%) (June – 80%) (May – 64%)
03. Angelina Jolie, Unbroken (65%) (June – 62%) (May – 61%)
04. Paul Thomas Anderson, Inherent Vice (49%) (June – 67%) (May – 67%)
04. David Fincher, Gone Girl (49%) (June – 47%) (May – 54%)

06. Ava DuVernay, Selma (42%) (NEW)
07. Richard Linklater, Boyhood (39%) (NEW)
08. Christopher Nolan, Interstellar (23%) (June – 37%)
09. Morten Tyldum, The Imitation Game (21%) (NEW)
10. Wes Anderson, The Grand Budapest Hotel (11%) (June – 17%)

BEST ACTOR

01. Michael Keaton, Birdman (86%) (June – 78%) (May – 71%)
02. Steve Carell, Foxcatcher (84%) (June – 86%) (May – 81%)
03. Benedict Cumberbatch, The Imitation Game (63%) (June – 44%)
04. Joaquin Phoenix, Inherent Vice (56%) (June – 60%) (May – 61%)
05. David Oyelowo, Selma (50%) (NEW)

06. Jack O’Connell, Unbroken (30%) (June – 27%)
07. Timothy Spall, Mr. Turner (26%) (June – 45%) (May – 26%)
08. Channing Tatum, Foxcatcher (18%) (NEW)
09. Christoph Waltz, Big Eyes (12%) (June – 52%) (May – 51%)
10. Ben Affleck, Gone Girl (8%) (NEW)

BEST ACTRESS

01. Reese Witherspoon, Wild (84%) (June – 78%) (May – 66%)
02. Rosamund Pike, Gone Girl (79%) (June – 73% (May – 68%)
03. Amy Adams, Big Eyes (76%) (June – 75%) (May – 81%)
04. Meryl Streep, Into the Woods (54%) (June – 53%) (May – 36%)
05. Jessica Chastain, The Disappearance of Eleanor Rigby: Them (35%) (June – 26%)

06. Michelle Williams, Suite Française (33%) (June – 39%) (May – 53%)
07. Shailene Woodley, The Fault in Our Stars (14%) (NEW)
08. Jessica Chastain, A Most Violent Year (14%) (June – 16%)
08. Julianne Moore, Maps to the Stars (14%) (June – 15%)
08. Carey Mulligan, Suffragette (14%) (June – 21%)

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

01. Edward Norton, Birdman (82%) (June – 78%) (May – 75%)
02. Mark Ruffalo, Foxcatcher (79%) (June – 77%) (May – 69%)
03. Josh Brolin, Inherent Vice (56%) (June – 64%) (May – 64%)
04. Channing Tatum, Foxcatcher (53%) (June – 52%) (May – 26%)
05. Miyavi (Takamasa Ishihara), Unbroken (33%) (June – 39%) (May – 39%)

06. J.K. Simmons, Whiplash (32%) (June – 38%)
07. Tom Wilkinson, Selma (29%) (NEW)
08. Neil Patrick Harris, Gone Girl (28%) (June – 30%)
09. Christoph Waltz, Big Eyes (15%) (June – 19%)
10. Logan Lerman, Fury (12%) (June – 16%)

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

01. Jessica Chastain, A Most Violent Year (61%) (June – 60%) (May – 59%)
02. Emma Stone, Birdman (56%) (June – 60%) (May – 57%)
03. Anna Kendrick, Into the Woods (45%) (June – 60%) (May – 45%)
04. Keira Knightley, The Imitation Game (41%) (June – 21%)
05. Julianne Moore, Maps to the Stars (35%) (June – 44%) (May – 16%)

06. Carmen Ejogo, Selma (31%) (NEW)
07. Emily Blunt, Into the Woods (30%) (June – 28%) (May – 22%)
08. Patricia Arquette, Boyhood (27%) (NEW)
09. Laura Dern, Wild (25%) (June 24%)
10. Viola Davis, Get on Up (11%) (June – 22%)

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

01. Gone Girl (84%) (May – 82%)
02. Inherent Vice (79%) (May – 91%)
03. The Imitation Game (76%) (May – 45%)
03. Unbroken (76%) (May – 79%)
05. Foxcatcher (71%) (May – 67%)

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

01. Birdman (95%) (May – 88%)
02. Boyhood (91%) (May – 28%)
03. The Grand Budapest Hotel (77%) ((May – 67%)
04. Selma (66%) (NEW)
05. Mr. Turner (43%) (May – 58%)