Forum Oscar Poll Results: July 2015 – The Revenant Moves Into the Lead

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The July results are in for the Forum Oscar Polls and on the strength of its superb trailer, The Revenant pulls ahead of Carol (albeit by a single vote) to be the new #1 film in the Best Picture Oscar race. Carol is still very strong at #2 and Joy is right behind at #3. Only three votes separate the top 3 in what has been and will be a very close race throughout the year. Suffragette holds strong and The Danish Girl moves into the top 5, pushing Steven Spielberg’s Bridge of Spies out to #6. In all the top 10 for July is made up of the same films from June, just in slightly different orders. Expect some shake-up for August though as Beasts of No Nation is poised to make a big impact as is the recent announcement from Warner Brothers that Our Brand Is Crisis will be coming out October 30th.

BEST PICTURE

01. The Revenant – (89%; 64 votes)
02. Carol – (88%; 63 votes)
03. Joy – (85%; 61 votes)
04. Suffragette – (82%; 59 votes)
05. The Danish Girl – (75%; 54 votes)

06. Bridge of Spies – (67%; 48 votes)
06. Inside Out – (67%; 48 votes)
06. Steve Jobs – (67%; 48 votes)
09. The Hateful Eight – (58%; 42 votes)
10. Youth – (36%; 26 votes)

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Todd Haynes (Carol) still holds onto #1, however, in the Director race from June to July. David O. Russell (Joy) and Alejandro G. Iñárritu (The Revenant) flip-flop their #2 and #3 positions this month and all three saw big jumps in their vote totals. Tom Hooper (The Danish Girl) makes a move up to #4, a move that again sees Bridge of Spies take another hit. Cary Fukunaga (Beasts of No Nation) makes the biggest move, up to #8 but with a vote increase of 20, the 2nd biggest in the top 10.

BEST DIRECTOR

01. Todd Haynes – Carol (83%; 70 votes)
02. Alejandro G. Iñárritu – The Revenant (76%; 64 votes)
03. David O. Russell – Joy (70%; 59 votes)
04. Tom Hooper – The Danish Girl (45%; 38 votes)
05. Steven Spielberg – Bridge of Spies (38%; 32 votes)

06. Sarah Gavron – Suffragette (36%; 30 votes)
06. Quentin Tarantino – The Hateful Eight (36%; 30 votes)
08. Cary Fukunaga – Beasts of No Nation (35%; 29 votes)
09. Danny Boyle – Steve Jobs (32%; 27 votes)
10. Paolo Sorrentino – Youth (11%; 9 votes)

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That trailer for The Revenant also paid off in Best Actor for Leonardo DiCaprio. Although he’s still in 2nd place he moves up in votes to within just three points of Eddie Redmayne (The Danish Girl). It’s the closest he’s been to the #1 spot. Michael Fassbender (Steve Jobs) also makes a big jump and Tom Hiddleston (I Saw the Light) enters the top 5 for the first time, dethroning Jake Gyllenhaal in Southpaw. Gyllenhaal takes a double hit this month; not only are his chances for a nomination for Southpaw are severely diminished and now his backup, Demolition, is pushed to 2016 so he’s basically out of the race. More changes in the lower top 10 include Bradley Cooper (Burnt, formerly Adam Jones) and Bryan Cranston (Trumbo) dropping off, making room for Joseph Gordon-Levitt in The Walk (NYFF53 Opening Night film) and Ian McKellen in Mr. Holmes, which has enjoyed very healthy reviews and box office. The last time McKellen and Bill Condon worked together (Gods and Monsters) it generated an Oscar nomination for McKellen and a win for Condon.

BEST ACTOR

01. Eddie Redmayne – The Danish Girl (90%; 121 votes)
02. Leonardo DiCaprio – The Revenant (88%; 118 votes)
03. Michael Fassbender – Steve Jobs (81%; 108 votes)
04. Michael Caine – Youth (63%; 84 votes)
05. Tom Hiddleston – I Saw the Light (43%; 57 votes)

06. Tom Hanks – Bridge of Spies (22%; 30 votes)
07. Jake Gyllenhaal – Demolition (22%; 29 votes)
08. Jake Gyllenhaal – Southpaw (16%; 21 votes)
09. Johnny Depp – Black Mass (9%; 12 votes)
10. Joseph Gordon-Levitt – The Walk (7%; 10 votes)
10. Ian McKellen – Mr. Holmes (7%; 10 votes)

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As always, Best Actress is race rich with high vote totals and high expectations. Cate Blanchett (Carol) manages to hold onto her #1 status but Jennifer Lawrence (Joy) is closing that gap quickly. She’s now within seven votes of #1. The top 5 remain the same and in the same positions. But watch out for Alicia Vikander in The Danish Girl; people are finally coming around to the realization that she’s most likely going to get a lead actress push and she a 27-point increase to land at #6. Sandra Bullock in Our Brand is Crisis is at #9 for June but a peek at next month’s numbers show her making a big move.

BEST ACTRESS

01. Cate Blanchett – Carol (87%; 148 votes)
02. Jennifer Lawrence – Joy (82%; 141 votes)
03. Carey Mulligan – Suffragette (80%; 137 votes)
04. Saoirse Ronan – Brooklyn (44%; 76 votes)
05. Julianne Moore – Freeheld (43%; 73 votes)

06. Alicia Vikander – The Danish Girl (29%; 49 votes)
07. Charlotte Rampling – 45 Years (22%; 37 votes)
08. Meryl Streep – Ricki and the Flash (15%; 25 votes)
09. Sandra Bullock – Our Brand Is Crisis (13%; 22 votes)
10. Lily Tomlin – Grandma (12%; 21 votes)

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Robert De Niro (Joy) displaces Tom Hardy (The Revenant) for the #1 spot in Supporting Actor for July and Idris Elba (Beasts of No Nation) makes a big move into the top 5. Robert Redford in Truth makes a strong debut at #7 and Jude Law (Genius) and Alan Alda (Bridge of Spies) fall off the chart.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

01. Robert De Niro – Joy (78%; 64 votes)
02. Tom Hardy – The Revenant (77%; 63 votes)
03. Samuel L. Jackson – The Hateful Eight (71%; 58 votes)
04. Idris Elba – Beasts of No Nation (54%; 44 votes)
05. Harvey Keitel – Youth (46%; 38 votes)

06. Benicio Del Toro – Sicario (30%; 25 votes)
07. Robert Redford – Truth (20%; 16 votes)
08. Seth Rogen – Steve Jobs (18%; 15 votes)
09. Mark Rylance – Bridge of Spies (11%; 9 votes)
09. Other (11%; 9 votes)

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Amazingly, Alicia Vikander (The Danish Girl) still holds onto her top 5 status in Supporting Actress, only dropping a single vote. But it’s no match for Rooney Mara (Carol). The Cannes winner’s lead is and has been the most comfortable of any in the top 8 categories. Kate Winslet (Steve Jobs) and Helena Bonham Carter (Suffragette) build on Vikander’s vote splitting and move up the chart and Ellen Page (Freeheld) enters the top 5, tied with Diane Ladd (Joy). Naomi Watts, who had 30 votes in June’s poll for Demolition, drops off completely and makes room for another Joy lady, Isabella Rossellini.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

01. Rooney Mara – Carol (86%; 118 votes)
02. Helena Bonham Carter – Suffragette (61%; 84 votes)
03. Kate Winslet – Steve Jobs (55%; 76 votes)
04. Alicia Vikander – The Danish Girl (48%; 66 votes)
05. Diane Ladd – Joy (39%; 54 votes)
05. Ellen Page – Freeheld (39%; 54 votes)

07. Jane Fonda – Youth (22%; 30 votes)
08. Jennifer Jason Leigh – The Hateful Eight (20%; 28 votes)
09. Isabella Rossellini – Joy (18%; 25 votes)
10. Marion Cotillard – Macbeth (15%; 20 votes)

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Adapted Screenplay has the same top 4 in the same order as June but #5 sees Beasts of No Nation replacing Bridge of Spies, which is now officially an original screenplay.

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

01. Carol – (94%; 33 votes)
02. The Danish Girl – (89%; 31 votes)
03. Steve Jobs – (80%; 28 votes)
04. The Revenant – (63%; 22 votes)
05. Beasts of No Nation – (54%; 19 votes)

06. Brooklyn – (26%; 9 votes)
07. Our Brand Is Crisis – (20%; 7 votes)
08. The Big Short – (14%; 5 votes)
09. Freeheld – (11%; 4 votes)
10. Other – (9%; 3 votes)

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Same top 6 as last month, with The Hateful Eight switching spots with Suffragette. Adam Jones (now Burnt) and Demolition fall off the list, making room for Cannes winner Son of Saul, which enters the top 10 at #6 and Toronto and Venice entry Spotlight, which comes in at #9.

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

01. Joy – (89%; 34 votes)
02. Inside Out – (87%; 33 votes)
03. The Hateful Eight – (82%; 31 votes)
04. Suffragette – (74%; 28 votes)
05. Youth – (47%; 18 votes)

06. Bridge of Spies – (34%; 13 votes)
07. Son of Saul – (13%; 5 votes)
07. Other – (13%; 5 votes)
09. Spotlight – (11%; 4 votes)
10. Sicario – (8%; 3 votes)
10. Trainwreck – (8%; 3 votes)