Forum Oscar Poll Results – July 2016: BP is Stagnant; Eastwood, Alywn, Grant, Stewart Make Moves

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After some movement last month, the Best Picture poll results are surprisingly stagnant with just two new entries (Sully and Moonlight) and spots 1-7 and 9 remaining exactly the same from June. Total votes are moving upwards, as they do throughout the year and the polls get more participants.

In Best Director, Clint Eastwood makes the highest jump to land at #7. His film Sully , which opens September 9th, just dropped its poster and trailer at the end of last month’s polls and could perform very well this month as a result. Kenneth Lonergan (Manchester by the Sea) and Jeff Nichols (Loving) switch spots and Morten Tyldum (Passengers) enters the fray at #10.

Young actors are taking the lead in Best Actor with Casey Affleck (Manchester by the Sea), Andrew Garfield (Silence) and newcomer Joe Alywn (Billy Lynn’s Long Halftime Walk) all move up. In Best Actress Emma Stone (La La Land) falls out of the top five to make room for Emily Blunt in The Girl on the Train and Isabelle Huppert (Elle) shows strong signs of earning the first Oscar nomination of her career. The recent news of A24 picking up Annette Bening’s 20th Century Women should boost her numbers next month significantly. The studio pushed Room‘s Brie Larson to a win here last year. Best Supporting Actor sees the biggest jump on the chart with Hugh Grant (Florence Foster Jenkins) tripling his vote total as a very possible Meryl Streep coattail and also looking for a first-time nomination. Best Supporting Actress sees moves from Kristen Stewart in Billy Lynn’s Long Halftime Walk but we’ve been burned by Stewart predictions before so we’re remaining cautiously optimistic. Aja Naomi King (The Birth of a Nation) takes a peek at the top five, sitting just outside of it.

The screenplay categories find themselves both in a very tight race for the top three spots. In Adapted, Billy Lynn, Silence and Fences rule while in Original we have The Birth of a Nation, Loving and Manchester by the Sea grappling for dominance.

Here are the Forum Oscar Poll Results for July 2016 with handy dandy color codes for films (green is up, red is down), directors and performances that have gone up or down in placement since last month.

BEST PICTURE
01. Silence (91%; 82 votes)
02. Billy Lynn’s Long Halftime Walk (88%; 79 votes)
03. The Birth of a Nation (82%; 74 votes)
04. Loving (77%; 69 votes)
05. Fences (73%; 66 votes)
06. Manchester by the Sea (71%; 64 votes)
07. La La Land (52%; 47 votes)
08. Sully (37%; 33 votes) – NEW
09. Arrival (33%; 30 votes) (formerly Story of Your Life)
10. Moonlight (27%; 24 votes) – NEW

BEST DIRECTOR
01. Martin Scorsese — Silence (95%; 62 votes)
02. Ang Lee — Billy Lynn’s Long Halftime Walk (92%; 60 votes)
03. Nate Parker — The Birth of a Nation (71%; 46 votes)
04. Kenneth Lonergan — Manchester by the Sea (46%; 30 votes)
05. Jeff Nichols — Loving (34%; 22 votes)

06. Damien Chazelle — La La Land (31%; 20 votes)
07. Clint Eastwood — Sully (25%; 16 votes)
07. Denis Villenueve — Arrival (25%; 16 votes)
09. Denzel Washington — Fences (23%; 15 votes)
10. Morten Tyldum — Passengers (6%; 4 votes) – NEW

BEST ACTOR
01. Denzel Washington — Fences (83%; 91 votes)
02. Casey Affleck — Manchester by the Sea (70%; 77 votes)
03. Nate Parker — The Birth of a Nation (67%; 74 votes)
04. Andrew Garfield — Silence (62%; 68 votes)
05. Joel Edgerton — Loving (50%; 55 votes)

06. Woody Harrelson — Wilson (35%; 39 votes)
07. Tom Hanks — Sully (20%; 22 votes)
08. Joe Alwyn — Billy Lynn’s Long Halftime Walk (15%; 17 votes)
09. Colin Firth — The Mercy (11%; 12 votes)
10. Other (9%; 10 votes)

BEST ACTRESS
01. Viola Davis — Fences (87%; 149 votes)
02. Ruth Negga — Loving (82%; 141 votes)
03. Meryl Streep — Florence Foster Jenkins (50%; 86 votes)
04. Amy Adams — Arrival (36%; 62 votes)
05. Emily Blunt — The Girl on the Train (27%; 47 votes)

06. Emma Stone — La La Land (26%; 45 votes)
07. Isabelle Huppert — Elle (25%; 42 votes) – NEW
08. Jessica Chastain — The Zookeeper’s Wife (18%; 30 votes) (moved to 2017)
09. Annette Bening — 20th Century Women (16%; 28 votes)
10. Michelle Pfeiffer — Beat-up Little Seagull (14%; 24 votes)

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
01. Liam Neeson — Silence (88%; 72 votes)
02. Steve Martin — Billy Lynn’s Long Halftime Walk (59%; 48 votes)
03. Armie Hammer — The Birth of a Nation (57%; 47 votes)
04. Hugh Grant — Florence Foster Jenkins (35%; 29 votes)
05. Adam Driver — Silence (28%; 23 votes)

06. Aaron Eckhart — Sully (22%; 18 votes)
07. Warren Beatty — Rules Don’t Apply (16%; 13 votes)
08. Stephen Henderson — Fences (15%; 12 votes) – NEW
09. Mahershala Ali — Moonlight (11%; 9 votes)
09. Oscar Isaac — The Promise (11%; 9 votes) – NEW
09. Michael Shannon — Nocturnal Animals (11%; 9 votes) – NEW

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
01. Michelle Williams — Manchester by the Sea (84%; 92 votes)
02. Naomie Harris — Moonlight (56%; 61 votes)
03. Laura Dern — Wilson (55%; 60 votes)
04. Kristen Stewart — Billy Lynn’s Long Halftime Walk (50%; 54 votes)
05. Rachel Weisz — The Light Between Oceans (39%; 43 votes)

06. Aja Naomi King — The Birth of a Nation (33%; 36 votes)
07. Annette Bening — 20th Century Women (25%; 27 votes)
08. Nicole Kidman — Lion (21%; 23 votes)
09. Rachel Weisz — The Mercy (12%; 13 votes) (formerly Deep Water)
10. Saoirse Ronan — The Seagull (10%; 11 votes) – NEW

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
01. Billy Lynn’s Long Halftime Walk (90%; 46 votes)
02. Silence (88%; 45 votes)
03. Fences (84%; 43 votes)
04. Arrival (33%; 17 votes)
04. Wilson (33%; 17 votes)

06. Sully (29%; 15 votes)
07. Love & Friendship (25%; 13 votes)
08. Nocturnal Animals (18%; 9 votes)
09. The Girl on the Train (16%; 8 votes)
10. Lion (14%; 7 votes)
10. Other (14%; 7 votes)

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
01. The Birth of a Nation (84%; 43 votes)
02. Loving (82%; 42 votes)
02. Manchester by the Sea (82%; 42 votes)
04. La La Land (43%; 22 votes)
05. Café Society (27%; 14 votes)
05. Moonlight (27%; 14 votes)

07. Passengers (24%; 12 votes)
08. The Lobster (20%; 10 votes)
09. 20th Century Women (14%; 7 votes)
10. The Mercy (10%; 5 votes)
10. Zootopia (10%; 5 votes)