Forum Oscar Poll Results – September 2014

BEST PICTURE
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Things are being to shore up in Best Picture with Top 5 retaining their place in the race and only one new film added (The Theory of Everything) and one dropped (Wild). While debuting in 9th, we think that Theory is poised to make another jump next month. Unbroken holds strong here despite falls in other major categories but Inherent Vice takes a big hit for September. We think that the release of the trailer and its reception at NYFF could bring it back to life. The Imitation Game, building of its success at the Toronto International Film Festival (where it won the People’s Choice) makes a huge jump (up 19 points) to land in a three-way tie for 1st place.

BEST DIRECTOR
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Iñárritu further secures his place at the top in the director race and the build-up to Gone Girl, its reviews and NYFF debut have vaulted David Fincher back into the race with a bullet. In doing so he bumps down Bennett Miller (Foxcatcher) and Ava DuVernay (Selma). Curious, since the first footage of Selma was shown at the Urbanworld Film Festival last month to great acclaim. A peek at the early vote totals for October shows that she’ll see a surge next month though.

01. Alejandro González Iñárritu, Birdman (95%) (August – 85%) (July – 80%) (June – 67%) (May – 59%)
02. Richard Linklater, Boyhood (84%) (August – 83%) (July – 39% – NEW)
03. David Fincher, Gone Girl (68%) (August – 44%) (July – 49%) (June – 47%) (May – 54%)
04. Bennett Miller, Foxcatcher (64%) (August – 72%) (July – 78%) (June – 80%) (May – 64%)
05. Christopher Nolan, Interstellar (49%) (August – 45%) (July – 23%) (June – 37%)

06. Ava DuVernay, Selma (47%) (August – 50%) (July – 42%)
07. Morten Tyldum, The Imitation Game (41%) (August – 37%) (July – 21% – NEW)
08. Angelina Jolie, Unbroken (29%) (August – 38%) (July – 65%) (June – 62%) (May – 61%)
09. Paul Thomas Anderson, Inherent Vice (7%) (August – 19%) (July – 49%) (June – 67%) (May – 67%)
10. Mike Leigh, Mr. Turner (5% – NEW)

Off the list: J.C. Chandor, A Most Violent Year; Wes Anderson, The Grand Budapest Hotel

BEST ACTOR
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Michael Keaton and Benedict Cumberbatch are sealing up their spots in the Best Actor race with a 1st-place tie but watch out for Eddie Redmayne here. His 4th place debut is no small feat and he could take over Steve Carell very soon.

01. Michael Keaton, Birdman (91%) (August – 87%) (July – 86%) (June – 78%) (May – 71%)
02. Benedict Cumberbatch, The Imitation Game (91%) (August – 86%) (July – 63%) (June – 44%)
03. Steve Carell, Foxcatcher (81%) (August – 83%) (July – 84%) (June – 86%) (May – 81%)
04. Eddie Redmayne, The Theory of Everything (68% – NEW)
05. David Oyelowo, Selma (65%) (August – 62%) (July – 50%)

06. Jack O’Connell, Unbroken (17%) (August – 14%) (July – 30%) (June – 27%)
07. Ben Affleck, Gone Girl (14% – RE-ENTRY)
07. Bradley Cooper, American Sniper (14%) (August – 12%)
09. Joaquin Phoenix, Inherent Vice (13%) (August – 44%) (July – 56%) (June – 60%) (May – 61%)
10. Channing Tatum, Foxcatcher (7%) (August – 13%) (July – 18%)

Off the list: Timothy Spall, Mr. Turner; Matthew McConaughey, Interstellar

BEST ACTRESS
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Boy, what a shake-up a single announcement makes. Just as this category was becoming as stagnant as a Georgia swamp, in comes Sony Pictures Classics with its purchase of Still Alice from the Toronto International Film Festival and poise Julianne Moore not only as a new contender for Best Actress but the immediate frontrunner to win. SPC knows how to run a good campaign and with a win in this category this year they’re in great shape. Add to that the best notices of Moore’s career and a strong overdue narrative and we’ll be saying Reese who? Pike what? Two other big changes though are the addition of Felicity Jones, riding that Theory train into the top 5 and the (unofficial) announcement that Meryl Streep will indeed be going Supporting for Into the Woods (much to the chagrin of AwardsWatch’s assertion that she would not). This bumps her down to 6th here but breathes life into her place in Supporting. Jessica Chastain also makes a bit of a flip-flop, going lead for A Most Violent Year and dropping significantly for Eleanor Rigby as a result.

01. Julianne Moore, Still Alice (93% – NEW)
02. Rosamund Pike, Gone Girl (93%) (August – 85%) (July – 79%) (June – 73% (May – 68%)
03. Reese Witherspoon, Wild (89%) (August – 85%) (July – 84%) (June – 78%) (May – 66%)
04. Amy Adams, Big Eyes (66%) (August – 80%) (July – 76%) (June – 75%) (May – 81%)
05. Felicity Jones, The Theory of Everything (56% – NEW)

06. Meryl Streep, Into the Woods (40%) (August – 63%) (July – 54%) (June – 53%) (May – 36%)
07. Jessica Chastain, A Most Violent Year (24% – NEW)
08. Marion Cotillard, Two Days, One Night (6% – NEW)
08. Shailene Woodley, The Fault in Our Stars (6%) (August – 15%) (July – 14% – NEW)
10. Jessica Chastain, The Disappearance of Eleanor Rigby (5%) (August – 41%) (July – 35%) (June – 26%)
10. Hilary Swank, The Homesman (5%) (August – 8%)
10. Other (5%)

Off the list: Nicole Kidman, Queen of the Desert; Jennifer Aniston, Cake; Julianne Moore, Maps to the Stars

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
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Big jumps for the top 4 men here, with Ethan Hawke (Boyhood) riding the coattail of Patricia Arquette’s supporting success. Both Norton and Ruffalo makes healthy strides as well. Only Josh Brolin falls (and quite a bit), making room for one of the Selma men to be poised to take his place. Veteran actor J.K. Simmons (Whiplash) makes the biggest leap though, a whopping 33 points to land at #3.

01. Edward Norton, Birdman (93%) (August – 83%) (July – 82%) (June – 78%) (May – 75%)
02. Mark Ruffalo, Foxcatcher (92%) (August – 76%) (July – 79%) (June – 77%) (May – 69%)
03. J.K. Simmons, Whiplash (84%) (August – 51%) (July – 32%) (June – 38%)
04. Ethan Hawke, Boyhood (43%) (August – 13%)
05. Josh Brolin, Inherent Vice (35%) (August – 52%) (July – 56%) (June – 64%) (May – 64%)

06. Tom Wilkinson, Selma (31%) (August – 49%) (July – 29%)
07. Tim Roth, Selma (25% – NEW)
08. Channing Tatum, Foxcatcher (14%)
09. Domhnall Gleeson, Unbroken (13% – NEW)
10. Steve Carell, Foxcatcher (9% – NEW)
10. Neil Patrick Harris, Gone Girl (9%) (August – 22%) (July – 28%) (June – 30%)
10. Christoph Waltz, Big Eyes (9% – RE-ENTRY)

Off the list: Miyavi (Takamasa Ishihara), Unbroken; Robert Duvall, The Judge

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
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Arquette’s hold on 1st place maintains but look at Keira Knightley! Building off the strength of The Imitation Game‘s win at Toronto and her good notices, she makes a massive leap to 2nd place and nipping at Arquette’s heels. Emma Stone and Carmen Ejogo also see big bumps, making this top 4 more and more solid each day. Jessica Chastain debuts here with thoughts that her work in Interstellar, even if low on screentime, could work in her favor as it did in 2011. Laura Dern is starting to lose steam here, as are the ladies from Into the Woods. We’ll see how Streep fares if the word that she’s going supporting becomes official. Take note of Kristen Stewart’s debut though. She could quite easily be looking at a nomination along with Julianne Moore for Still Alice. With a strong filmography this year, Stewart is poised to surprise and capture.

01. Patricia Arquette, Boyhood (93%) (August – 80%) (July – 27%)
02. Keira Knightley, The Imitation Game (92%) (August – 60%) (July – 41%) (June – 21%)
03. Emma Stone, Birdman (75%) (August – 65%) (July – 56%) (June – 60%) (May – 57%)
04. Carmen Ejogo, Selma (71%) (August – 51%) (July – 31% – NEW)
05. Jessica Chastain, Interstellar (28% – NEW)

06. Laura Dern, Wild (25%) (August – 31%) (July – 25%) (June 24%)
07. Katherine Waterston, Inherent Vice (19% – NEW)
08. Emily Blunt, Into the Woods (13%) (August – 22%) (July – 30%) (June – 28%) (May – 22%)
09. Meryl Streep, Into the Woods (12% – NEW)
10. Anna Kendrick, Into the Woods (11%) (August – 24%) (July – 45%) (June – 60%) (May – 45%)
10. Kristen Stewart, Still Alice (11% – NEW)

Off the list: Jessica Chastain, A Most Violent Year; Julianne Moore, Maps to the Stars; Naomi Watts, St. Vincent

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
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As in Best Picture, both Gone Girl and The Imitation Game are locking their spots with another 1st place tie. And again, The Theory of Everything makes a big splash at #3 in its debut. Still Alice and American Sniper debut here and Inherent Vice find itself taking yet another hit in another category. Category changes and announcements drop Foxcatcher and Whiplash from Adapted to Original.

01. Gone Girl (94%) (August – 88%) (July – 84%) (May – 82%)
01. The Imitation Game (94%) (August – 83%) (July – 76%) (May – 45%)
03. The Theory of Everything (74% – NEW)
04. Unbroken (70%) (August – 66%) (July – 76%) (May – 79%)
05. Inherent Vice (51%) (August – 80%) (July – 79%) (May – 91%)

06. Still Alice (49% – NEW)
07. Wild (42%) (August – 49%) (July – 53%)
08. American Sniper (13% – NEW)
09. Other (6%)
10. Rosewater (4%) (August – 5%) (July – 3%)

Off the list: Foxcatcher, Trash, Whiplash, Men, Women & Children

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
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The biggest new here is the announcement that both Foxcatcher and Whiplash will be competing in Original Screenplay. With those two and Mr. Turner, Sony Pictures Classics has its hands full with three major players here and it doesn’t seem like anyone thinks all three will get in. As of now, Foxcatcher seems secure and Whiplash is definitely going to overtake Mr. Turner in next month’s poll. In other news, Birdman and Boyhood duke it out in first place battle that will probably be the case all the way up to the podium in February.

01. Birdman (97%) (August – 98%) (July – 95%) (May – 88%)
01. Boyhood (97%) (August – 91%) (July – 91%) (May – 28%)
03. Foxcatcher (82%) (August – 33%) (July – 39%)
04. Interstellar (62%) (August – 50%) (July – 23%)
05. Selma (58%) (August – 54%) (July – 66% – NEW)

06. The Grand Budapest Hotel (43%) (August – 83%) (July – 77%) (May – 67%)
07. Mr. Turner (22%) (August – 46%) (July – 43%) (May – 58%)
08. Whiplash (12% – NEW)
08. Other (12%)
10. A Most Violent Year (8%) (August – 24%) (July – 39%)

Off the list: Big Eyes, Maps to the Stars, While We’re Young