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Last month it looked like Billy Lynn’s Long Halftime Walk was finally ready to pass Silence for the #1 spot but, surprise, it’s August’s #7 film, La La Land, that dances its way to top spot for September. But take a look at that top three and you won’t find a tighter race on this list. With Silence at #3, the top three films are separated by just two votes.
One thing to keep in mind when perusing the Forum Oscar Poll results is that the polls for each category open on the 1st of each month and close on the last day of the month. Now, sometimes people jump right in and vote but once they do, those votes are locked and can’t be changed. Some people hold off as news, information, and even scandals can change the race quickly and sometimes indefinitely. That has never been more evident than last month for The Birth of a Nation when Nate Parker’s rape controversy from 1999 came up and dominated all of August (we devoted an entire podcast to it here). What you’ll see, prediction-wise, is a strange imbalance of the film dropping in some categories and remaining strong(ish) in others. For example, the film drops three spots in Best Picture but in the Supporting categories, Armie Hammer and Aja Naomi King hold onto their positions. It’s also important to look not just at the placements but at the vote totals. Each month we always see a bump in vote totals as more members vote and new members find AW and participate. For example, despite Birth‘s drop in Best Picture it actually increases its vote total by 29. On the other side of that coin, Parker’s vote totals in Best Director fall from 70 last month to 57 this month. Looking at the first five days of voting, you can expect a precipitous drop for the film in virtually every category in next month’s poll.
Elsewhere, Ang Lee (Billy Lynn’s Long Halftime Walk) finally passes Martin Scorsese (Silence) in Best Director and lots of new names enter the acting races including Jake Gyllenhaal (Nocturnal Animals), Natalie Portman (Jackie – which has yet to find a distributor), Mahershala Ali (Moonlight), Lucas Hedges (Manchester by the Sea), Greta Gerwig (20th Century Women) and Octavia Spencer (Hidden Figures).
You can vote in the September polls right here.
Here are the Forum Oscar Poll Results for September 2016 with handy dandy color codes for films (green is up, red is down), directors and performances that have gone up or down in placement since last month.
BEST PICTURE
- La La Land (93%; 125 votes)
02. Billy Lynn’s Long Halftime Walk (93%; 124 votes)
03. Silence (92%; 123 votes)
04. Manchester by the Sea (82%; 110 votes)
05. Fences (78%; 105 votes)
06. The Birth of a Nation (74%; 99 votes)
07. Arrival (69%; 93 votes)
08. Loving (63%; 84 votes)
09. Moonlight (44%; 59 votes)
10. 20th Century Women (34%; 45 votes) – NEW
BEST DIRECTOR
- Ang Lee, Billy Lynn’s Long Halftime Walk (95%; 105 votes)
02. Martin Scorsese, Silence (92%; 101 votes)
03. Damien Chazelle, La La Land (87%; 96 votes)
04. Nate Parker, The Birth of a Nation (52%; 57 votes)
05. Kenneth Lonergan, Manchester by the Sea (45%; 50 votes)
06. Denis Villeneuve, Arrival (45%; 49 votes)
07. Denzel Washington, Fences (19%; 21 votes)
08. Barry Jenkins, Moonlight (17%; 19 votes)
09. Jeff Nichols, Loving (13%; 14 votes)
10. Clint Eastwood, Sully (9%; 10 votes)
BEST ACTOR
- Denzel Washington, Fences (85%; 140 votes)
02. Casey Affleck, Manchester by the Sea (85%; 139 votes)
03. Andrew Garfield, Silence (62%; 102 votes)
04. Nate Parker, The Birth of a Nation (62%; 101 votes)
05. Joel Edgerton, Loving (46%; 76 votes)06. Ryan Gosling, La La Land (43%; 71 votes)
07. Tom Hanks, Sully (19%; 31 votes)
08. Jake Gyllenhaal, Nocturnal Animals (15%; 24 votes) – NEW
09. Joe Alwyn, Billy Lynn’s Long Halftime Walk (12%; 20 votes)
09. Michael Keaton, The Founder (12%; 20 votes)
BEST ACTRESS
- Viola Davis, Fences (90%; 199 votes)
02. Ruth Negga, Loving (79%; 176 votes)
03. Emma Stone, La La Land (74%; 164 votes)
04. Annette Bening, 20th Century Women (61%; 136 votes)
05. Amy Adams, Arrival (48%; 106 votes)
06. Meryl Streep, Florence Foster Jenkins (29%; 64 votes)
07. Natalie Portman, Jackie (15%; 33 votes) – NEW
08. Jessica Chastain, Miss Sloane (13%; 29 votes)
09. Emily Blunt, The Girl on the Train (13%; 28 votes)
10. Amy Adams, Nocturnal Animals (11%; 24 votes)
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
- Liam Neeson, Silence (93; 112 votes)
02. Armie Hammer, The Birth of a Nation (64%; 77 votes)
03. Steve Martin, Billy Lynn’s Long Halftime Walk (57%; 69 votes)
04. Warren Beatty, Rules Don’t Apply (34%; 41 votes)
05. Michael Shannon, Nocturnal Animals (30%; 36 votes)
06. Aaron Eckhart, Sully (28%; 34 votes)
06. Stephen Henderson, Fences (28%; 34 votes)
08. Hugh Grant, Florence Foster Jenkins (21%; 25 votes)
09. Mahershala Ali, Moonlight (17%; 21 votes) – NEW
10. Adam Driver, Silence (16%; 19 votes)
10. Lucas Hedges, Manchester by the Sea (16%; 19 votes) – NEW
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
- Michelle Williams, Manchester by the Sea (89%; 148 votes)
02. Naomie Harris, Moonlight (71%; 118 votes)
03. Kristen Stewart, Billy Lynn’s Long Halftime Walk (69%; 115 votes)
04. Nicole Kidman, Lion (48%; 79 votes)
05.Aja Naomi King, The Birth of a Nation (42%; 69 votes)
06. Rachel Weisz, The Light Between Oceans (29%; 48 votes)
07. Greta Gerwig, 20th Century Women (28%; 47 votes) – NEW
08. Laura Dern, Wilson (13%; 22 votes)
09. Annette Bening, 20th Century Women (11%; 19 votes)
10. Octavia Spencer, Hidden Figures (11%; 18 votes) – NEW
BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
- Billy Lynn’s Long Halftime Walk (96%; 71 votes)
02. Silence 93%; 69 votes)
03. Fences (91%; 67 votes)
04. Arrival (61%; 45 votes)
05. Love & Friendship (37%; 27 votes)
06. Lion (32%; 24 votes)
07. Nocturnal Animals (23%; 17 votes)
08. Sully (16%; 12 votes)
09. The Light Between Oceans (9%; 7 votes)
09. Wilson (9%; 7 votes)
BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
- Manchester by the Sea (88%; 65 votes)
02. La La Land (82%; 61 votes)
03. The Birth of a Nation (77%; 57 votes)
04. Loving (69%; 51 votes)
05. 20th Century Women (55%; 41 votes)
06. Moonlight (41%; 30 votes)
07. The Lobster (16%; 12 votes)
08. Toni Erdmann (8%; 6 votes)
09. Zootopia (7%; 5 votes)
10. Everybody Wants Some!! (5%; 4 votes) – NEW
10. Other (5%; 4 votes)
Erik Anderson is the founder/owner and Editor-in-Chief of AwardsWatch and has always loved all things Oscar, having watched the Academy Awards since he was in single digits; making lists, rankings and predictions throughout the show. This led him down the path to obsessing about awards. Much later, he found himself in film school and the film forums of GoldDerby, and then migrated over to the former Oscarwatch (now AwardsDaily), before breaking off to create AwardsWatch in 2013.
He is a Rotten Tomatoes-approved critic, accredited by the Cannes Film Festival, Telluride Film Festival, Toronto International Film Festival and more, is a member of the International Cinephile Society (ICS), The Society of LGBTQ Entertainment Critics (GALECA), Hollywood Critics Association (HCA) and the International Press Academy. Among his many achieved goals with AwardsWatch, he has given a platform to underrepresented writers and critics and supplied them with access to film festivals and the industry and calls the Bay Area his home where he lives with his husband and son.
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(see all) Erik AndersonErik Anderson is the founder/owner and Editor-in-Chief of AwardsWatch and has always loved all things Oscar, having watched the Academy Awards since he was in single digits; making lists, rankings and predictions throughout the show. This led him down the path to obsessing about awards. Much later, he found himself in film school and the film forums of GoldDerby, and then migrated over to the former Oscarwatch (now AwardsDaily), before breaking off to create AwardsWatch in 2013. He is a Rotten Tomatoes-approved critic, accredited by the Cannes Film Festival, Telluride Film Festival, Toronto International Film Festival and more, is a member of the International Cinephile Society (ICS), The Society of LGBTQ Entertainment Critics (GALECA), Hollywood Critics Association (HCA) and the International Press Academy. Among his many achieved goals with AwardsWatch, he has given a platform to underrepresented writers and critics and supplied them with access to film festivals and the industry and calls the Bay Area his home where he lives with his husband and son.
