Frontrunner (Black) Friday Oscar Predictions: The Post-Thanksgiving Malaise Makes Way for the Beginning of Awards Season – 11/29/24
It’s Black Friday. It’s Frontrunner Friday. It’s the combination Frontrunner Black Friday Oscar predictions.
If you’re not in retail or food service, most of the U.S. today is either in recovery from last night’s Thanksgiving, in a mad rush for Black Friday deals (so those even happen in person on Friday anymore?) or heading to the movies or crashing in front of the television to watch something. Maybe all of the above. But for Golden Globe, Spirit Awards, Gotham Awards and Critics Choice voters, it’s where awards season really starts.
Right at this moment, voters in all of those groups are scrambling to watch screeners or off to a screening to finalize their votes for the first week of December: Golden Globes, Spirit Awards and Critics Choice for nominations and the Gotham Awards on Monday, December 2. Add to that New York Film Critics the next day, National Board of Review on the 4th plus the British Independent Film Awards and European Film Awards just days later and Los Angeles and Boston critics and you’ve got a race that isn’t just taking shape, it’s already racing towards a finish line that’s still three months away.
So as we peer over cliff of that first week, my November Oscar predictions also serve as the first Frontrunner Friday of the season. With a very open season – Will Conclave be an easy consensus vote? Can Wicked‘s soaring box office be an Oscar salve on a financial wound of the industry? – there seems to be nothing but potential. Anything seems possible as I hold space for contenders big and small, or maybe I’m just having delusions of grandeur.
BEST PICTURE
| 1. Conclave (Focus Features) | |
| 2. Anora (NEON) | Gotham, Palme d’Or (Cannes) |
| 3. The Brutalist (A24) | |
| 4. Emilia Pérez (Netflix) | Jury Prize (Cannes) |
| 5. Dune Part II (Warner Bros) | |
| 6. Nickel Boys (Amazon MGM) | Gotham |
| 7. Sing Sing (A24) | |
| 8. Wicked Part 1 (Universal Pictures) | |
| 9. A Real Pain (Searchlight Pictures) | |
| 10. Gladiator II (Paramount Pictures) |
DIRECTOR
| 1. Edward Berger – Conclave (Focus Features) | |
| 2. Sean Baker – Anora (NEON) | Gotham |
| 3. Brady Corbet – The Brutalist (A24) | Silver Bear (Venice) |
| 4. Jacques Audiard – Emilia Pérez (Netflix) | EFA |
| 5. RaMell Ross – Nickel Boys (Amazon MGM) | Gotham |
BEST ACTOR
| 1. Ralph Fiennes – Conclave (Focus Features) | EFA |
| 2. Adrien Brody – The Brutalist (A24) | Gotham |
| 3. Timothée Chalamet – A Complete Unknown (Searchlight Pictures) | |
| 4. Colman Domingo – Sing Sing (A24) | Gotham |
| 5. Daniel Craig – Queer (A24) | EFA |
BEST ACTRESS
| 1. Mikey Madison – Anora (NEON) | Gotham |
| 2. Demi Moore – The Substance (MUBI) | Gotham |
| 3. Angelina Jolie – Maria (Netflix) | |
| 4. Nicole Kidman – Babygirl (A24) | Venice, Gotham |
| 5. Karla Sofía Gascón – Emilia Pérez (Netflix) | Cannes, EFA |
SUPPORTING ACTOR
| 1. Kieran Culkin – A Real Pain (Searchlight Pictures) | Gotham |
| 2. Denzel Washington – Gladiator II (Paramount Pictures) | |
| 3. Clarence Maclin – Sing Sing (A24) | Gotham |
| 4. Guy Pearce – The Brutalist (A24) | Gotham |
| 5. Yura Borisov – Anora (NEON) | Gotham |
SUPPORTING ACTRESS
| 1. Zoe Saldaña – Emilia Pérez (Netflix) | Cannes (Best Actress) |
| 2. Danielle Deadwyler – The Piano Lesson (Netflix) | Gotham |
| 3. Isabella Rossellini – Conclave (Focus Features) | |
| 4. Felicity Jones – The Brutalist (A24) | |
| 5. Saoirse Ronan – Blitz (Apple Original Films) |
ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
| 1. Conclave (Focus Features) Peter Straughan (based on “Conclave” by Robert Harris) |
|
| 2. Emilia Pérez (Netflix) Jacques Audiard (based on “Listen” by Boris Razon) |
EFA |
| 3. Nickel Boys (Amazon MGM/Orion) RaMell Ross, Joslyn Barnes (based on “The Nickel Boys” by Colson Whitehead) |
|
| 4. Sing Sing (A24) Clint Bentley, Greg Kwedar, Clarence Maclin, John “Divine G” Whitfield (based on “The Sing Sing Follies” by John H. Richardson and “Breakin’ the Mummy’s Code” by Brent Buell) |
|
| 5. The Room Next Door (Sony Pictures Classics) Pedro Almodóvar (based on “What Are You Going Through” by Sigrid Nunez) |
EFA |
ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
| 1. Anora (NEON) Sean Baker |
|
| 2. The Brutalist (A24) Brady Corbet, Mona Fastvold |
|
| 3. A Real Pain (Searchlight Pictures) Jesse Eisenberg |
Sundance |
| 4. The Substance (MUBI) Coralie Fargeat |
Cannes, EFA |
| 5. The Seed of the Sacred Fig (NEON) Mohammad Rasoulof |
EFA |
FILM EDITING
| 1. Dune: Part Two (Warner Bros) Joe Walker |
| 2. Emilia Pérez (Netflix) Juliette Welfling |
| 3. Gladiator II (Paramount Pictures) Sam Restivo, Claire Simpson |
| 4. Anora (NEON) Sean Baker |
| 5. The Brutalist (A24) Dávid Jancsó |
CINEMATOGRAPHY
| 1. Dune: Part Two (Warner Bros) Greig Fraser |
| 2. Gladiator II (Paramount Pictures) John Mathieson |
| 3. The Brutalist (A24) Lol Crawley |
| 4. Nickel Boys (Amazon MGM/Orion) Jomo Fray |
| 5. Maria (Netflix) Edward Lachman |
PRODUCTION DESIGN
| 1. Gladiator II (Paramount Pictures) Arthur Max |
| 2. Dune: Part Two (Warner Bros Patrice Vermette |
| 3. The Brutalist (A24) Judy Becker |
| 4. Wicked Part I (Universal Pictures) Nathan Crowley |
| 5. Conclave (Focus Features) Suzie Davies |
COSTUME DESIGN
| 1. Gladiator II (Paramount Pictures) Janty Yates |
| 2. Dune: Part Two (Warner Bros) Jacqueline West |
| 3. Wicked Part I (Universal Pictures) Paul Tazewell |
| 4. Maria (Netflix) Massimo Cantini Parrini |
| 5. Nosferatu (Focus Features) Linda Muir |
ORIGINAL SCORE
| 1. Conclave (Focus Features) Volker Bertelmann |
HMMA (main) |
| 2. Dune: Part II (Warner Bros)* Hans Zimmer |
HMMA (scifi/fantasy) |
| 3. Emilia Pérez (Netflix) Clément Ducol, Camille |
HMMA (main) |
| 4. The Brutalist (A24) Daniel Blumberg |
|
| 5. The Wild Robot (Universal Pictures/Dreamworks Animation) Kris Bowers |
HMMA (animated) |
ORIGINAL SONG
| 1. “El Mal” by Clement Ducol, Camille and Jacques Audiard from Emilia Pérez (Netflix) | HMMA (main) |
| 2. “Winter Coat” by Nicholas Britell, Steve McQueen, and Taura Stinson from Blitz (Apple Original Films) | HMMA (main) |
| 3. “Never Too Late” by Elton John & Brandi Carlile from Elton John: Never Too Late (Walt Disney Pictures) | HMMA (doc) |
| 4. “Mi Camino” by Clement Ducol and Camille from Emilia Pérez (Netflix) | HMMA (main) |
| 5. “The Journey” by Diane Warren from The Six Triple Eight (Netflix) | HMMA (main) |
SOUND
| 1. Dune: Part Two (Warner Bros) |
| 2. Gladiator II (Paramount Pictures) |
| 3. Emilia Pérez (Netflix) |
| 4. A Complete Unknown (Searchlight Pictures) |
| 5. Twisters (Paramount Pictures/Warner Bros) |
MAKEUP AND HAIRSTYLING
| 1. Dune: Part Two (Warner Bros) |
| 2. The Substance (MUBI) |
| 3. A Different Man (A24) |
| 4. Nosferatu (Focus Features) |
| 5. A Complete Unknown (Searchlight Pictures) |
VISUAL EFFECTS
| 1. Dune: Part Two (Warner Bros) |
| 2. Gladiator II (Paramount Pictures) |
| 3. Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes (20th Century Studios) |
| 4. Twisters (Paramount Pictures/Warner Bros) |
| 5. Better Man (Paramount Pictures) |
ANIMATED FEATURE FILM
| 1. The Wild Robot (Dreamworks/Universal) |
| 2. Inside Out 2 (Walt Disney/Pixar) |
| 3. Memoir of a Snail (IFC Films) |
| 4. Flow (Janus Films/Sideshow) |
| 5. Wallace & Gromit: Vengeance Most Fowl (Aardman/Netflix) |
DOCUMENTARY FEATURE FILM
| 1. Dahomey (MUBI) | Golden Bear for Best Film – Berlin, EFA, Gotham |
| 2. No Other Land (No U.S. distribution) | Berlinale Documentary Award – Berlin, BIFA, EFA, Gotham |
| 3. Daughters (Netflix) | CCA |
| 4. Sugarcane (National Geographic Documentary Films) | Sundance, CCA |
| 5. Black Box Diaries (MTV Documentary Films) |
INTERNATIONAL FEATURE FILM
| 1. France – Emilia Pérez (Netflix) | Jury Prize – Cannes |
| 2. Germany – The Seed of the Sacred Fig (NEON) | Special Jury Prize – Cannes, EFA, BIFA |
| 3. Brazil – I’m Still Here (Sony Pictures Classics) | |
| 4. Denmark – The Girl with the Needle (MUBI) | |
| 5. Senegal – Dahomey (MUBI) | Golden Bear for Best Film – Berlin, EFA |
Erik Anderson is the founder/owner and Editor-in-Chief of AwardsWatch and has always loved all things Oscar, having watched the Academy Awards since he was in single digits; making lists, rankings and predictions throughout the show. This led him down the path to obsessing about awards. Much later, he found himself in film school and the film forums of GoldDerby, and then migrated over to the former Oscarwatch (now AwardsDaily), before breaking off to create AwardsWatch in 2013.
He is a Rotten Tomatoes-approved critic, accredited by the Cannes Film Festival, Telluride Film Festival, Toronto International Film Festival and more, is a member of the International Cinephile Society (ICS), The Society of LGBTQ Entertainment Critics (GALECA), Hollywood Critics Association (HCA) and the International Press Academy. Among his many achieved goals with AwardsWatch, he has given a platform to underrepresented writers and critics and supplied them with access to film festivals and the industry and calls the Bay Area his home where he lives with his husband and son.
He is a Rotten Tomatoes-approved critic, accredited by the Cannes Film Festival, Telluride Film Festival, Toronto International Film Festival and more, is a member of the International Cinephile Society (ICS), The Society of LGBTQ Entertainment Critics (GALECA), Hollywood Critics Association (HCA) and the International Press Academy. Among his many achieved goals with AwardsWatch, he has given a platform to underrepresented writers and critics and supplied them with access to film festivals and the industry and calls the Bay Area his home where he lives with his husband and son.
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