Last Tuesday, while the likes of Christopher Nolan, Margot Robbie and Bradley Cooper roamed about the Oscars Luncheon, the afternoon made superstars out of Messi, the dog who plays Snoop in Anatomy of a Fall, and the high-spirited grandmothers from the nominated documentary short Nai Nai & Wài Pó. The weeks just before Oscar voting kicks off are prime time for nominees to co-mingle in a way they haven’t before and might not again until it’s time to pull the lever on your Academy ballot and these face to faces are what have pivoted Oscar races in the past.
Since last week’s edition of Frontrunner Friday we had the DGA Awards, which of course went to Christopher Nolan for Oppenheimer and where Celine Song picked up the first time director prize. The Art Directors Guild and the Set Decorators Society of America bestowed awards on Barbie, Poor Things and Oppenheimer, making that category even more confusing. Then the Society of Composers and Lyricists went with another Oppenheimer frontrunner, in original score, as well as another original song win for Billie Eilish and Finneas for “What Was I Made For?” from Barbie.
But all eyes will be on BAFTA this weekend. Whether they give some races more shape or offer multiple forks in the road to others, Oppenheimer should be able to prevail with a record or near-record number of wins. At the moment I’m predicting nine wins, which would tie it with 1969’s Butch Cassidy and the Sundance Kid for the most of all time. The Annie Awards and Makeup and Hairstyling Guild Awards are also this weekend so fire up the popcorn and break out your Dune bucket, the show is about to start.
Here are my Frontrunner Friday Oscar Predictions for the 2024 Academy Awards on Friday, February 16.
BEST PICTURE
| 1. Oppenheimer (Universal Pictures) – BAFTA, CCA, GG, PGA, SAG Emma Thomas, Charles Roven and Christopher Nolan, Producers |
| 2. The Holdovers (Focus Features) – BAFTA, CCA, GG, PGA Mark Johnson, Producer |
| 3. Poor Things (Searchlight Pictures) – BAFTA, CCA, GG, PGA Ed Guiney, Andrew Lowe, Yorgos Lanthimos and Emma Stone, Producers |
| 4. Anatomy of a Fall (NEON) – BAFTA, GG, PGA Marie-Ange Luciani and David Thion, Producers |
| 5. American Fiction (Amazon MGM) – CCA, GG, PGA, SAG Ben LeClair, Nikos Karamigios, Cord Jefferson and Jermaine Johnson, Producers |
| 6. Killers of the Flower Moon (Apple Original Films) – BAFTA, CCA, GG, PGA, SAG Dan Friedkin, Bradley Thomas, Martin Scorsese and Daniel Lupi, Producers |
| 7. Barbie (Warner Bros) – CCA, GG, PGA, SAG David Heyman, Margot Robbie, Tom Ackerley and Robbie Brenner, Producers |
| 8. Maestro (Netflix) – CCA, GG, PGA Bradley Cooper, Steven Spielberg, Fred Berner, Amy Durning and Kristie Macosko Krieger, Producers |
| 9. The Zone of Interest (A24) – GG, PGA James Wilson, Producer |
| 10. Past Lives (A24) – CCA, GG, PGA David Hinojosa, Christine Vachon and Pamela Koffler, Producers |
BEST DIRECTOR
| 1. Christopher Nolan for Oppenheimer (BAFTA, CCA, DGA, GG) |
| 2. Justine Triet for Anatomy of a Fall (BAFTA) |
| 3. Yorgos Lanthimos for Poor Things (CCA, DGA, GG) |
| 4. Jonathan Glazer for The Zone of Interest (BAFTA) |
| 5. Martin Scorsese for Killers of the Flower Moon (CCA, DGA, GG) |
BEST ACTOR
| 1. Paul Giamatti in The Holdovers (BAFTA, CCA, GG, SAG) |
| 2. Cillian Murphy in Oppenheimer (BAFTA, CCA, GG, SAG) |
| 3. Bradley Cooper in Maestro (BAFTA, CCA, GG, SAG) |
| 4. Jeffrey Wright in American Fiction (BAFTA, CCA, GG, SAG) |
| 5. Colman Domingo in Rustin (CCA, GG, SAG) |
BEST ACTRESS
| 1. Emma Stone in Poor Things (BAFTA, CCA, GG, SAG) |
| 2. Lily Gladstone in Killers of the Flower Moon (CCA, GG, SAG) |
| 3. Annette Bening in Nyad (GG, SAG) |
| 4. Sandra Hüller in Anatomy of a Fall (BAFTA, CCA, GG) |
| 5. Carey Mulligan in Maestro (BAFTA, CCA, GG, SAG) |
SUPPORTING ACTOR
| 1. Robert Downey Jr. in Oppenheimer (BAFTA, CCA, GG, SAG) |
| 2. Ryan Gosling in Barbie (BAFTA, CCA, GG, SAG) |
| 3. Sterling K. Brown in American Fiction (CCA, SAG) |
| 4. Robert De Niro in Killers of the Flower Moon (BAFTA, CCA, GG, SAG) |
| 5. Mark Ruffalo in Poor Things (CCA, SAG) |
SUPPORTING ACTRESS
| 1. Da’Vine Joy Randolph in The Holdovers (BAFTA, CCA, GG, SAG) |
| 2. America Ferrera in Barbie (CCA) |
| 3. Emily Blunt in Oppenheimer (BAFTA, CCA, GG, SAG) |
| 4. Jodie Foster in Nyad (CCA, GG, SAG) |
| 5. Danielle Brooks in The Color Purple (BAFTA, CCA, GG, SAG) |
ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
| 1. American Fiction (BAFTA, CCA, USC) Written for the screen by Cord Jefferson |
| 2. Barbie (BAFTA,* CCA,* GG) Written by Greta Gerwig & Noah Baumbach |
| 3. Oppenheimer (BAFTA, CCA, GG, USC) Written for the screen by Christopher Nolan |
| 4. Poor Things (BAFTA, CCA, GG, USC) Screenplay by Tony McNamara |
| 5. The Zone of Interest (BAFTA) Written by Jonathan Glazer |
*nominated in Original Screenplay before Academy switch to Adapted
ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
| 1. Anatomy of a Fall (BAFTA, GG) Screenplay by Justine Triet and Arthur Harari |
| 2. The Holdovers (BAFTA, CCA) Written by David Hemingson |
| 3. Past Lives (BAFTA, CCA, GG) Written by Celine Song |
| 4. Maestro (BAFTA, CCA) Written by Bradley Cooper & Josh Singer |
| 5. May December Screenplay by Samy Burch; Story by Samy Burch & Alex Mechanik |
FILM EDITING
| 1. Oppenheimer (ACE, BAFTA, CCA) Jennifer Lame |
| 2. Anatomy of a Fall (ACE, BAFTA) Laurent Sénéchal |
| 3. Poor Things (ACE, BAFTA, CCA) Yorgos Mavropsaridis |
| 4. Killers of the Flower Moon (ACE, BAFTA, CCA) Thelma Schoonmaker |
| 5. The Holdovers (ACE) Kevin Tent |
CINEMATOGRAPHY
| 1. Oppenheimer (ASC, BAFTA, CCA) Hoyte van Hoytema |
| 2. Poor Things (ASC, BAFTA, CCA) Robbie Ryan |
| 3. Maestro (ASC, BAFTA, CCA) Matthew Libatique |
| 4. Killers of the Flower Moon (ASC, BAFTA, CCA) Rodrigo Prieto |
| 5. El Conde (ASC) Edward Lachman |
COSTUME DESIGN
| 1. Poor Things (BAFTA, CDG, CCA) Holly Waddington |
| 2. Barbie (BAFTA, CDG, CCA) Jacqueline Durran |
| 3. Oppenheimer (BAFTA, CDG) Ellen Mirojnick |
| 4. Killers of the Flower Moon (BAFTA, CDG, CCA) Jacqueline West |
| 5. Napoleon (BAFTA, CDG, CCA) Janty Yates and Dave Crossman |
PRODUCTION DESIGN
| 1. Barbie (ADG, BAFTA, CCA, SDSA) Production Design: Sarah Greenwood; Set Decoration: Katie Spencer |
| 2. Poor Things (ADG, BAFTA, CCA, SDSA) Production Design: James Price and Shona Heath; Set Decoration: Zsuzsa Mihalek |
| 3. Oppenheimer (ADG, BAFTA, CCA, SDSA) Production Design: Ruth De Jong; Set Decoration: Claire Kaufman |
| 4. Killers of the Flower Moon (ADG, BAFTA, CCA, SDSA) Production Design: Jack Fisk; Set Decoration: Adam Willis |
| 5. Napoleon (ADG, SDSA) Production Design: Arthur Max; Set Decoration: Elli Griff |
ORIGINAL SCORE
| 1. Oppenheimer (BAFTA, CCA, GG, HMMA, SCL) Ludwig Göransson |
| 2. Killers of the Flower Moon (BAFTA, CCA, GG, HMMA, SCL) Robbie Robertson |
| 3. Poor Things (BAFTA, CCA, GG) Jerskin Fendrix |
| 4. American Fiction (HMMA, SCL) Laura Karpman |
| 5. Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny John Williams |
ORIGINAL SONG
| 1. “What Was I Made For?” from Barbie (CCA, GG, HMMA, SCL) Music and Lyric by Billie Eilish and Finneas O’Connell |
| 2. “I’m Just Ken” from Barbie (CCA, GG, HMMA, SCL) Music and Lyric by Mark Ronson and Andrew Wyatt |
| 3. “Wahzhazhe (A Song For My People)” from Killers of the Flower Moon Music and Lyric by Scott George |
| 4. “It Never Went Away” from American Symphony (SCL) Music and Lyric by Jon Batiste and Dan Wilson |
| 5. “The Fire Inside” from Flamin’ Hot (HMMA, SCL) Music and Lyric by Diane Warren |
SOUND
| 1. Oppenheimer (BAFTA, CAS, MPSE) Willie Burton, Richard King, Gary A. Rizzo and Kevin O’Connell |
| 2. Maestro (BAFTA, CAS, MPSE) Steven A. Morrow, Richard King, Jason Ruder, Tom Ozanich and Dean Zupancic |
| 3. The Creator Ian Voigt, Erik Aadahl, Ethan Van der Ryn, Tom Ozanich and Dean Zupancic |
| 4. The Zone of Interest Tarn Willers and Johnnie Burn (BAFTA, MPSE) |
| 5. Mission: Impossible – Dead Reckoning Part One (BAFTA, MPSE) Chris Munro, James H. Mather, Chris Burdon and Mark Taylor |
MAKEUP AND HAIRSTYLING
| 1. Maestro (BAFTA, CCA, MUAH) Kazu Hiro, Kay Georgiou and Lori McCoy-Bell |
| 2. Poor Things (BAFTA, CCA, MUAH) Nadia Stacey, Mark Coulier and Josh Weston |
| 3. Golda (BAFTA, MUAH) Karen Hartley Thomas, Suzi Battersby and Ashra Kelly-Blue |
| 4. Society of the Snow Ana López-Puigcerver, David Martí and Montse Ribé |
| 5. Oppenheimer (BAFTA, CCA, MUAH) Luisa Abel |
VISUAL EFFECTS
| 1. Napoleon (BAFTA, VES*) Charley Henley, Luc-Ewen Martin-Fenouillet, Simone Coco and Neil Corbould |
| 2. The Creator (BAFTA, CCA, VES) Jay Cooper, Ian Comley, Andrew Roberts and Neil Corbould |
| 3. Godzilla Minus One (VES*) Takashi Yamazaki, Kiyoko Shibuya, Masaki Takahashi and Tatsuji Nojima |
| 4. Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3 (BAFTA, CCA, VES) Stephane Ceretti, Alexis Wajsbrot, Guy Williams and Theo Bialek |
| 5. Mission: Impossible – Dead Reckoning Part One (BAFTA, CCA, VES*) Alex Wuttke, Simone Coco, Jeff Sutherland and Neil Corbould |
*supporting or not main category
ANIMATED FEATURE
| 1. Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse (Annie, BAFTA, CCA, GG, PGA) Kemp Powers, Justin K. Thompson, Phil Lord, Christopher Miller and Amy Pascal |
| 2. The Boy and the Heron (Annie, BAFTA, CCA, GG, PGA) Hayao Miyazaki and Toshio Suzuki |
| 3. Elemental (BAFTA, CCA, GG, PGA) Peter Sohn and Denise Ream |
| 4. Nimona (Annie, CCA) Nick Bruno, Troy Quane, Karen Ryan and Julie Zackary |
| 5. Robot Dreams Pablo Berger, Ibon Cormenzana, Ignasi Estapé and Sandra Tapia Díaz |
DOCUMENTARY FEATURE
| 1. 20 Days in Mariupol (BAFTA, CCA, CEH, PGA) Mstyslav Chernov, Michelle Mizner and Raney Aronson-Rath |
| 2. Bobi Wine: The People’s President (IDA) Moses Bwayo, Christopher Sharp and John Battsek |
| 3. To Kill a Tiger Nisha Pahuja, Cornelia Principe and David Oppenheim |
| 4. Four Daughters (CEH) Kaouther Ben Hania and Nadim Cheikhrouha |
| 5. The Eternal Memory (CCA, CEH) Nominees to be determined |
INTERNATIONAL FEATURE FILM
| 1. The Zone of Interest (BAFTA, CCA, GG) United Kingdom |
| 2. Society of the Snow (BAFTA, CCA, GG) Spain |
| 3. The Teachers’ Lounge Germany |
| 4. Perfect Days (CCA) Japan |
| 5. Io Capitano (GG) Italy |
ANIMATED SHORT
| 1. WAR IS OVER! Inspired by the Music of John & Yoko (ElectroLeague) Dave Mullins (director), Brad Booker, Sophie Cherry (producers) |
| 2. Letter to a Pig (Miyu Distribution) Tal Kantor and Amit R. Gicelter |
| 3. Ninety-Five Senses (Documentary+) Jerusha Hess and Jared Hess |
| 4. Our Uniform (TBD) Yegane Moghaddam |
| 5. Pachyderme (Miyu Distribution) Stéphanie Clément and Marc Rius |
DOCUMENTARY SHORT
| 1. Nǎi Nai & Wài Pó (Walt Disney Pictures) Sean Wang and Sam Davis |
| 2. The Last Repair Shop (L.A. Times Studios/Searchlight Pictures) Ben Proudfoot and Kris Bowers |
| 3. The ABCs of Book Banning (MTV Documentary Films/Paramount+) Sheila Nevins and Trish Adlesic |
| 4. The Barber of Little Rock (Story Syndicate) John Hoffman and Christine Turner |
| 5. Island in Between (The New York Times Op-Docs) S. Leo Chiang and Jean Tsien |
LIVE ACTION SHORT
| 1. The Wonderful Story of Henry Sugar (Netflix) Wes Anderson and Steven Rales |
| 2. The After (Netflix) Misan Harriman and Nicky Bentham |
| 3. Red, White and Blue (TBD) Nazrin Choudhury and Sara McFarlane |
| 4. Knight of Fortune (Jalabert Production) Lasse Lyskjær Noer and Christian Norlyk |
| 5. Invincible (H264 Distribution) Vincent René-Lortie and Samuel Caron |
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