Frontrunner Friday 2024 Oscar Predictions: Waiting is the Hardest Part
It’s a quiet period right now. We’re just over a week since the Oscar nominations, which brought as much joy as tears like they usually do, but only a smattering of new industry announcements. It won’t be until February 10 that guild start handing out awards (it’s just been press and the Globes so far) with the Art Directors Guild and Directors Guild of America chiming in first.
Then it becomes a bit of a free for all with the coming weeks having guild upon guild, the Oscar Nominees luncheon, Screen Actors Voting and Producers Guild voting still fully under way, all leading up to Oscar winner voting.
While there won’t be any mystery or surprise at the DGA I do wonder if we might see some potential tides turn in some categories soon. Best Actress remains a real race and while the focus has been on Golden Globe winners Lily Gladstone (Killers of the Flower Moon) and Emma Stone (Poor Things, also the Critics Choice winner) there is a world where one of the other three nominees steals their thunder with a BAFTA or SAG win. Gladstone is not nominated at BAFTA (less important in the era of ever-changing BAFTA voting) where Stone and Sandra Hüller (Anatomy of a Fall) are (and Maestro‘s Carey Mulligan, for that matter). Either winning would move the needle but only slightly for Stone with her biggest competition removed. SAG is the more interesting story where Hüller isn’t nominated (something history does not favor) but where we have the first and only face-off between Gladstone and Stone in an industry setting. While either of them are seemingly the most likely to win, what if Annette Bening (Nyad) is able to suddenly mount a comeback, Diana Nyad style? No actor in her category is collecting special awards from guilds and festivals faster than Bening is right now and in the coming weeks but it is enough to shift the favor in her direction? I’m not saying it’s going to happen – it would require a tsunami of passion and good will – but with a true frontrunner being unclear right now, why not entertain it?
Active members of the Academy are eligible to vote for the winners in all 23 categories beginning Thursday, February 22, through Tuesday, February 27.
The 96th Oscars will be held on Sunday, March 10 at 4pm PT – an hour earlier than usual – at the Dolby Theatre at Ovation Hollywood in Los Angeles.
Here are my Frontrunner Friday Oscar Predictions for the 2024 Academy Awards on Friday, February 2.
BEST PICTURE
| 1. Oppenheimer (Universal Pictures) – BAFTA, CCA, GG, PGA, SAG Emma Thomas, Charles Roven and Christopher Nolan, Producers |
| 2. The Holdovers (Focus Features) – BAFTA, CCA, GG, PGA Mark Johnson, Producer |
| 3. Poor Things (Searchlight Pictures) – BAFTA, CCA, GG, PGA Ed Guiney, Andrew Lowe, Yorgos Lanthimos and Emma Stone, Producers |
| 4. Anatomy of a Fall (NEON) – BAFTA, GG, PGA Marie-Ange Luciani and David Thion, Producers |
| 5. American Fiction (Amazon MGM) – CCA, GG, PGA, SAG Ben LeClair, Nikos Karamigios, Cord Jefferson and Jermaine Johnson, Producers |
| 6. Killers of the Flower Moon (Apple Original Films) – BAFTA, CCA, GG, PGA, SAG Dan Friedkin, Bradley Thomas, Martin Scorsese and Daniel Lupi, Producers |
| 7. Barbie (Warner Bros) – CCA, GG, PGA, SAG David Heyman, Margot Robbie, Tom Ackerley and Robbie Brenner, Producers |
| 8. Maestro (Netflix) – CCA, GG, PGA Bradley Cooper, Steven Spielberg, Fred Berner, Amy Durning and Kristie Macosko Krieger, Producers |
| 9. The Zone of Interest (A24) – GG, PGA James Wilson, Producer |
| 10. Past Lives (A24) – CCA, GG, PGA David Hinojosa, Christine Vachon and Pamela Koffler, Producers |
BEST DIRECTOR
| 1. Christopher Nolan for Oppenheimer (BAFTA, CCA, DGA, GG) |
| 2. Justine Triet for Anatomy of a Fall (BAFTA) |
| 3. Yorgos Lanthimos for Poor Things (CCA, DGA, GG) |
| 4. Jonathan Glazer for The Zone of Interest (BAFTA) |
| 5. Martin Scorsese for Killers of the Flower Moon (CCA, DGA, GG) |
BEST ACTOR
| 1. Paul Giamatti in The Holdovers (BAFTA, CCA, GG, SAG) |
| 2. Cillian Murphy in Oppenheimer (BAFTA, CCA, GG, SAG) |
| 3. Bradley Cooper in Maestro (BAFTA, CCA, GG, SAG) |
| 4. Jeffrey Wright in American Fiction (BAFTA, CCA, GG, SAG) |
| 5. Colman Domingo in Rustin (CCA, GG, SAG) |
BEST ACTRESS
| 1. Emma Stone in Poor Things (BAFTA, CCA, GG, SAG) |
| 2. Lily Gladstone in Killers of the Flower Moon (CCA, GG, SAG) |
| 3. Annette Bening in Nyad (GG, SAG) |
| 4. Sandra Hüller in Anatomy of a Fall (BAFTA, CCA, GG) |
| 5. Carey Mulligan in Maestro (BAFTA, CCA, GG, SAG) |
SUPPORTING ACTOR
| 1. Robert Downey Jr. in Oppenheimer (BAFTA, CCA, GG, SAG) |
| 2. Ryan Gosling in Barbie (BAFTA, CCA, GG, SAG) |
| 3. Robert De Niro in Killers of the Flower Moon (BAFTA, CCA, GG, SAG) |
| 4. Mark Ruffalo in Poor Things (CCA, SAG) |
| 5. Sterling K. Brown in American Fiction (CCA, SAG) |
SUPPORTING ACTRESS
| 1. Da’Vine Joy Randolph in The Holdovers (BAFTA, CCA, GG, SAG) |
| 2. America Ferrera in Barbie (CCA) |
| 3. Emily Blunt in Oppenheimer (BAFTA, CCA, GG, SAG) |
| 4. Jodie Foster in Nyad (CCA, GG, SAG) |
| 5. Danielle Brooks in The Color Purple (BAFTA, CCA, GG, SAG) |
ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
| 1. Barbie (BAFTA,* CCA,* GG) Written by Greta Gerwig & Noah Baumbach |
| 2. American Fiction (BAFTA, CCA, USC) Written for the screen by Cord Jefferson |
| 3. Oppenheimer (BAFTA, CCA, GG, USC) Written for the screen by Christopher Nolan |
| 4. Poor Things (BAFTA, CCA, GG, USC) Screenplay by Tony McNamara |
| 5. The Zone of Interest (BAFTA) Written by Jonathan Glazer |
ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
| 1. Anatomy of a Fall (BAFTA, GG) Screenplay by Justine Triet and Arthur Harari |
| 2. The Holdovers (BAFTA, CCA) Written by David Hemingson |
| 3. Past Lives (BAFTA, CCA, GG) Written by Celine Song |
| 4. Maestro (BAFTA, CCA) Written by Bradley Cooper & Josh Singer |
| 5. May December Screenplay by Samy Burch; Story by Samy Burch & Alex Mechanik |
FILM EDITING
| 1. Oppenheimer (ACE, BAFTA, CCA) Jennifer Lame |
| 2. Anatomy of a Fall (ACE, BAFTA) Laurent Sénéchal |
| 3. Killers of the Flower Moon (ACE, BAFTA, CCA) Thelma Schoonmaker |
| 4. Poor Things (ACE, BAFTA, CCA) Yorgos Mavropsaridis |
| 5. The Holdovers (ACE) Kevin Tent |
CINEMATOGRAPHY
| 1. Oppenheimer (ASC, BAFTA, CCA) Hoyte van Hoytema |
| 2. Killers of the Flower Moon (ASC, BAFTA, CCA) Rodrigo Prieto |
| 3. Maestro (ASC, BAFTA, CCA) Matthew Libatique |
| 4. Poor Things (ASC, BAFTA, CCA) Robbie Ryan |
| 5. El Conde (ASC) Edward Lachman |
COSTUME DESIGN
| 1. Poor Things (BAFTA, CDG, CCA) Holly Waddington |
| 2. Barbie (BAFTA, CDG, CCA) Jacqueline Durran |
| 3. Killers of the Flower Moon (BAFTA, CDG, CCA) Jacqueline West |
| 4. Napoleon (BAFTA, CDG, CCA) Janty Yates and Dave Crossman |
| 5. Oppenheimer (BAFTA, CDG) Ellen Mirojnick |
PRODUCTION DESIGN
| 1. Barbie (ADG, BAFTA, CCA, SDSA) Production Design: Sarah Greenwood; Set Decoration: Katie Spencer |
| 2. Poor Things (ADG, BAFTA, CCA, SDSA) Production Design: James Price and Shona Heath; Set Decoration: Zsuzsa Mihalek |
| 3. Napoleon (ADG, SDSA) Production Design: Arthur Max; Set Decoration: Elli Griff |
| 4. Killers of the Flower Moon (ADG, BAFTA, CCA, SDSA) Production Design: Jack Fisk; Set Decoration: Adam Willis |
| 5. Oppenheimer (ADG, BAFTA, CCA, SDSA) Production Design: Ruth De Jong; Set Decoration: Claire Kaufman |
ORIGINAL SCORE
| 1. Oppenheimer (BAFTA, CCA, GG, HMMA, SCL) Ludwig Göransson |
| 2. Killers of the Flower Moon (BAFTA, CCA, GG, HMMA, SCL) Robbie Robertson |
| 3. Poor Things (BAFTA, CCA, GG) Jerskin Fendrix |
| 4. American Fiction (HMMA, SCL) Laura Karpman |
| 5. Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny John Williams |
ORIGINAL SONG
| 1. “What Was I Made For?” from Barbie (CCA, GG, HMMA, SCL) Music and Lyric by Billie Eilish and Finneas O’Connell |
| 2. “I’m Just Ken” from Barbie (CCA, GG, HMMA, SCL) Music and Lyric by Mark Ronson and Andrew Wyatt |
| 3. “Wahzhazhe (A Song For My People)” from Killers of the Flower Moon Music and Lyric by Scott George |
| 4. “It Never Went Away” from American Symphony (SCL) Music and Lyric by Jon Batiste and Dan Wilson |
| 5. “The Fire Inside” from Flamin’ Hot (HMMA, SCL) Music and Lyric by Diane Warren |
SOUND
| 1. Oppenheimer (BAFTA, CAS, MPSE) Willie Burton, Richard King, Gary A. Rizzo and Kevin O’Connell |
| 2. Maestro (BAFTA, CAS, MPSE) Steven A. Morrow, Richard King, Jason Ruder, Tom Ozanich and Dean Zupancic |
| 3. The Creator Ian Voigt, Erik Aadahl, Ethan Van der Ryn, Tom Ozanich and Dean Zupancic |
| 4. The Zone of Interest Tarn Willers and Johnnie Burn (BAFTA, MPSE) |
| 5. Mission: Impossible – Dead Reckoning Part One (BAFTA, MPSE) Chris Munro, James H. Mather, Chris Burdon and Mark Taylor |
MAKEUP AND HAIRSTYLING
| 1. Maestro (BAFTA, CCA, MUAH) Kazu Hiro, Kay Georgiou and Lori McCoy-Bell |
| 2. Poor Things (BAFTA, CCA, MUAH) Nadia Stacey, Mark Coulier and Josh Weston |
| 3. Golda (BAFTA, MUAH) Karen Hartley Thomas, Suzi Battersby and Ashra Kelly-Blue |
| 4. Society of the Snow Ana López-Puigcerver, David Martí and Montse Ribé |
| 5. Oppenheimer (BAFTA, CCA, MUAH) Luisa Abel |
VISUAL EFFECTS
| 1. Napoleon (BAFTA, VES*) Charley Henley, Luc-Ewen Martin-Fenouillet, Simone Coco and Neil Corbould |
| 2. The Creator (BAFTA, CCA, VES) Jay Cooper, Ian Comley, Andrew Roberts and Neil Corbould |
| 3. Godzilla Minus One (VES*) Takashi Yamazaki, Kiyoko Shibuya, Masaki Takahashi and Tatsuji Nojima |
| 4. Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3 (BAFTA, CCA, VES) Stephane Ceretti, Alexis Wajsbrot, Guy Williams and Theo Bialek |
| 5. Mission: Impossible – Dead Reckoning Part One (BAFTA, CCA, VES*) Alex Wuttke, Simone Coco, Jeff Sutherland and Neil Corbould |
ANIMATED FEATURE
| 1. Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse (Annie, BAFTA, CCA, GG, PGA) Kemp Powers, Justin K. Thompson, Phil Lord, Christopher Miller and Amy Pascal |
| 2. The Boy and the Heron (Annie, BAFTA, CCA, GG, PGA) Hayao Miyazaki and Toshio Suzuki |
| 3. Elemental (BAFTA, CCA, GG, PGA) Peter Sohn and Denise Ream |
| 4. Nimona (Annie, CCA) Nick Bruno, Troy Quane, Karen Ryan and Julie Zackary |
| 5. Robot Dreams Pablo Berger, Ibon Cormenzana, Ignasi Estapé and Sandra Tapia Díaz |
DOCUMENTARY FEATURE
| 1. 20 Days in Mariupol (BAFTA, CCA, CEH, PGA) Mstyslav Chernov, Michelle Mizner and Raney Aronson-Rath |
| 2. Bobi Wine: The People’s President (IDA) Moses Bwayo, Christopher Sharp and John Battsek |
| 3. Four Daughters (CEH) Kaouther Ben Hania and Nadim Cheikhrouha |
| 4. To Kill a Tiger Nisha Pahuja, Cornelia Principe and David Oppenheim |
| 5. The Eternal Memory (CCA, CEH) Nominees to be determined |
INTERNATIONAL FEATURE FILM
| 1. The Zone of Interest (BAFTA, CCA, GG) United Kingdom |
| 2. Society of the Snow (BAFTA, CCA, GG) Spain |
| 3. The Teachers’ Lounge Germany |
| 4. Perfect Days (CCA) Japan |
| 5. Io Capitano (GG) Italy |
ANIMATED SHORT
| 1. WAR IS OVER! Inspired by the Music of John & Yoko Dave Mullins and Brad Booker |
| 2. Letter to a Pig Tal Kantor and Amit R. Gicelter |
| 3. Ninety-Five Senses Jerusha Hess and Jared Hess |
| 4. Our Uniform Yegane Moghaddam |
| 5. Pachyderme Stéphanie Clément and Marc Rius |
DOCUMENTARY SHORT
| 1. Nǎi Nai & Wài Pó Sean Wang and Sam Davis |
| 2. The Last Repair Shop Ben Proudfoot and Kris Bowers |
| 3. The ABCs of Book Banning Sheila Nevins and Trish Adlesic |
| 4. The Barber of Little Rock John Hoffman and Christine Turner |
| 5. Island in Between S. Leo Chiang and Jean Tsien |
LIVE ACTION SHORT
| 1. The Wonderful Story of Henry Sugar Wes Anderson and Steven Rales |
| 2. The After Misan Harriman and Nicky Bentham |
| 3. Red, White and Blue Nazrin Choudhury and Sara McFarlane |
| 4. Knight of Fortune Lasse Lyskjær Noer and Christian Norlyk |
| 5. Invincible Vincent René-Lortie and Samuel Caron |
He is a Rotten Tomatoes-approved critic, accredited by the Cannes Film Festival, Telluride Film Festival, Toronto International Film Festival and more, is a member of the International Cinephile Society (ICS), The Society of LGBTQ Entertainment Critics (GALECA), Hollywood Critics Association (HCA) and the International Press Academy. Among his many achieved goals with AwardsWatch, he has given a platform to underrepresented writers and critics and supplied them with access to film festivals and the industry and calls the Bay Area his home where he lives with his husband and son.
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