Frontrunner Friday 2025 Oscar Predictions: Forming the Winners Circle
While the first phase of Oscar season seems like an endless marathon, the post-nominations second phase is a sprint. After the date change and extension of voting this season due to the ongoing Los Angeles fires, there are only 19 days between Oscar nominations and the beginning of winner voting on February 11 (which lasts until February 18), where the mad dash truly begins for stars to hit the talk shows, podcasts, Saturday Night Lives, Hot Ones and the full time job that awards campaigning consists of now.
Here’s what we know: Netflix’s Emilia Pérez leads the nominations this year with 13, the second most ever in Academy history (tied with the likes of Best Picture winners Gone with the Wind, Forrest Gump, Chicago and Oppenheimer) yet entering as the underdog. Why? The Netflix bias, for starters. The streamer is among the best in the business during phase one, banking several Best Picture nominees but still reaching for that gold ring. The online discourse around Emilia Pérez is pretty toxic, with accusations and reviews calling it bad trans representation and equally so for how it represents the Mexican people. That isn’t an invalidation of some people’s concerns about the film, just a truth of the dissonance between online chatter and industry folks. But also, IMDb and Letterboxd review bombers aren’t Academy voters. They aren’t chronically online reply addicts who need to be the loudest the more a film they dislike gets awards. Whether it’s Green Book or Parasite, back to back Best Picture winners, actual voters pull the lever on what they’re passionate about, with the preferential ballot serving a consensus outcome, be it a progressive or regressive outcome.
So what does it mean for the actual outcome of Best Picture this year? Can Emilia Pérez build off its Golden Globe win and take Critics Choice (1/7), PGA (1/8), BAFTA (1/16), and/or SAG (1/29)? Or will The Brutalist, a much more ‘traditional’ film of scope and nature, take its Golden Globe win and run the board? It feels like Conclave, which all season has looked like a very easy consensus choice (it’s papal plot is literally about that) but that director miss for Edward Berger stings. It doesn’t mean it’s fully out (Green Book didn’t have a director nod but had DGA) but its campaign will have to hyper focus on the election element to stay afloat as other films, like Anora and the over-performing A Complete Unknown, bound ahead.
Here are my Frontrunner Friday Oscar predictions for the 97th Academy Awards in all categories for January 24, 2025.
BEST PICTURE
| 1. The Brutalist (A24) AFI, BAFTA, CCA, GG, PGA |
| 2. Emilia Pérez (Netflix) AFI, BAFTA, Cannes (Jury Prize), CCA, EFA, GG, PGA, SAG |
| 3. Anora (NEON) AFI, BAFTA, Cannes (Palme d’Or), CCA, GG, Gotham, PGA, Spirit, SAG |
| 4. A Complete Unknown (Searchlight Pictures) AFI, BAFTA, CCA, GG, PGA, SAG |
| 5. Conclave (Focus Features) AFI, BAFTA, CCA, GG, PGA, SAG |
| 6. Wicked Part 1 (Universal Pictures) AFI, CCA, GG, PGA, SAG |
| 7. The Substance (MUBI) CCA, EFA, GG, PGA, Spirit |
| 8. I’m Still Here (Sony Pictures Classics) |
| 9. Dune: Part Two (Warner Bros) AFI, CCA, GG, PGA |
| 10. Nickel Boys (Amazon MGM) AFI, CCA, GG, Gotham, Spirit |
BEST DIRECTOR
| 1. Brady Corbet – The Brutalist (A24) BAFTA, CCA, DGA, GG, Spirit, Venice (Silver Lion) |
| 2. Jacques Audiard – Emilia Pérez (Netflix) BAFTA, CCA, DGA, EFA, GG |
| 3. Sean Baker – Anora (NEON) BAFTA, CCA, DGA, GG, Gotham, Spirit |
| 4. James Mangold – A Complete Unknown (Searchlight Pictures) DGA |
| 5. Coralie Fargeat – The Substance (MUBI) BAFTA, CCA, GG |
BEST ACTOR
| 1. Timothée Chalamet – A Complete Unknown (Searchlight Pictures) BAFTA, CCA, GG, SAG |
| 2. Adrien Brody – The Brutalist (A24) BAFTA, Gotham, CCA, GG, SAG |
| 3. Colman Domingo – Sing Sing (A24) BAFTA, Gotham, CCA, GG, Spirit, SAG |
| 4. Ralph Fiennes – Conclave (Focus Features) BAFTA, EFA, CCA, GG, SAG |
| 5. Sebastian Stan – The Apprentice (Briafcliff Entertainment) BAFTA, GG |
BEST ACTRESS
| 1. Demi Moore – The Substance (MUBI) BAFTA, CCA, GG, Gotham, SAG, Spirit |
| 2. Fernanda Torres – I’m Still Here (Sony Pictures Classics) GG |
| 3. Mikey Madison – Anora (NEON) BAFTA, CCA, GG, Gotham, SAG, Spirit |
| 4. Karla Sofía Gascón – Emilia Pérez (Netflix) BAFTA, Cannes, CCA EFA, GG, SAG |
| 5. Cynthia Erivo – Wicked Part 1 (Universal Pictures) BAFTA, CCA, GG, SAG |
SUPPORTING ACTOR
| 1. Kieran Culkin – A Real Pain (Searchlight Pictures) BAFTA, CCA, Gotham, GG, SAG |
| 2. Edward Norton – A Complete Unknown (Searchlight Pictures) BAFTA, CCA, GG, SAG |
| 3. Guy Pearce – The Brutalist (A24) BAFTA, CCA, Gotham, GG |
| 4. Yura Borisov – Anora (NEON) BAFTA, CCA, Gotham, GG, SAG |
| 5. Jeremy Strong – The Apprentice (Briarcliff Entertainment) BAFTA, GG, SAG |
SUPPORTING ACTRESS
| 1. Zoe Saldaña – Emilia Pérez (Netflix) BAFTA, CCA, GG, Cannes (Best Actress), SAG |
| 2. Ariana Grande-Butera – Wicked Part I (Universal Pictures) BAFTA, CCA, GG, SAG |
| 3. Isabella Rossellini – Conclave (Focus Features) BAFTA, CCA, GG |
| 4. Monica Barbaro – A Complete Unknown (Searchlight Pictures) SAG |
| 5. Felicity Jones – The Brutalist (A24) BAFTA, GG |
ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
| 1. Nickel Boys (Amazon MGM/Orion) RaMell Ross, Joslyn Barnes (based on “The Nickel Boys” by Colson Whitehead) | BAFTA, CCA, WGA, USC |
| 2. Conclave (Focus Features) Peter Straughan (based on “Conclave” by Robert Harris) | BAFTA, CCA, GG, USC |
| 3. Emilia Pérez (Netflix) Jacques Audiard (based on “Listen” by Boris Razon) | BAFTA, CCA, EFA, GG |
| 4. Sing Sing (A24) Clint Bentley, Greg Kwedar, Clarence Maclin, John “Divine G” Whitfield (based on “The Sing Sing Follies” by John H. Richardson and “Breakin’ the Mummy’s Code” by Brent Buell) | BAFTA, CCA, USC |
| 5. A Complete Unknown (Searchlight Pictures) Jay Cocks, James Mangold (based on “Dylan Goes Electric!” by Elijah Wald | BAFTA, WGA, USC |
ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
| 1. Anora (NEON) Sean Baker | BAFTA, CCA, GG, WGA |
| 2. A Real Pain (Searchlight Pictures) Jesse Eisenberg | BAFTA, CCA, GG, Sundance, WGA |
| 3. The Brutalist (A24) Brady Corbet, Mona Fastvold | BAFTA, CCA, GG |
| 4. The Substance (MUBI) Coralie Fargeat | BAFTA, Cannes, CCA, GG, EFA |
| 5. September 5 (Paramount Pictures) Moritz Binder, Tim Fehlbaum | CCA |
FILM EDITING
| 1. The Brutalist (A24) Dávid Jancsó | CCA |
| 2. Emilia Pérez (Netflix) Juliette Welfling | ACE, BAFTA |
| 3. Anora (NEON) Sean Baker | ACE, BAFTA, CCA |
| 4. Conclave (Focus Features) Nick Emerson | ACE, BAFTA, CCA |
| 5. Wicked (Universal Pictures) Myron Kerstein | ACE |
CINEMATOGRAPHY
| 1. The Brutalist (A24) Lol Crawley | ASC, BAFTA, BSC, CCA |
| 2. Emilia Pérez (Netflix) Paul Guillaume | BAFTA, BSC |
| 3. Nosferatu (Focus Features) Jarin Blaschke | ASC, BAFTA, BSC, CCA |
| 4. Dune: Part Two (Warner Bros) Greig Fraser | ASC |
| 5. Maria (Netflix) Edward Lachman | ASC |
PRODUCTION DESIGN
| 1. Wicked Part I (Universal Pictures) Nathan Crowley | ADG, BAFTA, CCA, SDSA |
| 2. The Brutalist (A24) Judy Becker | ADG, BAFTA, CCA, SDSA |
| 3. Conclave (Focus Features) Suzie Davies | ADG, BAFTA, CCA, SDSA |
| 4. Nosferatu (Focus Features) Craig Lathrop | ADG, BAFTA, CCA, SDSA |
| 5. Dune: Part Two (Warner Bros) Patrice Vermette | ADG, BAFTA, CCA, SDSA |
COSTUME DESIGN
| 1. Wicked Part I (Universal Pictures) Paul Tazewell | BAFTA, CCA, CDG |
| 2. Conclave (Focus Features) Lisy Christi | BAFTA, CCA, CDG |
| 3. Nosferatu (Focus Features) Linda Muir | BAFTA, CCA, CDG |
| 4. Gladiator II (Paramount Pictures) Janty Yates | CCA, CDG |
| 5. A Complete Unknown (Searchlight Pictures) Arianne Phillips | BAFTA |
ORIGINAL SCORE
| 1. Conclave (Focus Features) Volker Bertelmann | BAFTA, CCA, GG, HMMA, SCL |
| 2. The Brutalist (A24) Daniel Blumberg | BAFTA, CCA, GG, SCL |
| 3. Emilia Pérez (Netflix) Clément Ducol and Camille | BAFTA, CCA, GG, HMMA (main), SCL |
| 4. The Wild Robot (Universal Pictures) Kris Bowers | BAFTA, CCA, GG, HMMA (animated), SCL |
| 5. Wicked (Universal Pictures) John Powell and Stephen Schwartz | SCL |
ORIGINAL SONG
| 1. “El Mal” from Emilia Pérez (Netflix) Music by Clément Ducol and Camille; lyrics by Clément Ducol, Camille, and Jacques Audiard | CCA, GG, HMMA (main), SCL |
| 2. “The Journey” from The Six Triple Eight (Netflix) Music and lyrics by Diane Warren | HMMA (main), SCL |
| 3. “Mi Camino” from Emilia Pérez (Netflix) Music and lyrics by Camille and Clément Ducol | CCA, GG, HMMA (main), SCL |
| 4. “Never Too Late” from Elton John: Never Too Late (Disney+) Music and lyrics by Elton John, Brandi Carlile, Andrew Watt, and Bernie Taupin | HMMA (documentary), SCL |
| 5. “Like a Bird” from Sing Sing (A24) Music and lyrics by Abraham Alexander and Adrian Quesada |
SOUND
| 1. Dune: Part Two (Warner Bros) Gareth John, Richard King, Ron Bartlett, and Doug Hemphill | AMPS, BAFTA, CAS, MPSE (x3) |
| 2. A Complete Unknown (Searchlight Pictures) Tod A. Maitland, Donald Sylvester, Ted Caplan, Paul Massey, and David Giammarco | AMPS, CAS, MPSE (x2) |
| 3. Wicked Part I (Universal Pictures) Simon Hayes, Nancy Nugent Title, Jack Dolman, Andy Nelson, and John Marquis | AMPS, BAFTA, CAS, MPSE (x2) |
| 4. Emilia Pérez (Netflix) Erwan Kerzanet, Aymeric Devoldère, Maxence Dussère, Cyril Holtz, and Niels Barletta | MPSE (x2) |
| 5. The Wild Robot (Universal Pictures) Randy Thom, Brian Chumney, Gary A. Rizzo, and Leff Lefferts |
MAKEUP & HAIRSTYLING
| 1. The Substance (MUBI) Pierre-Oliver Persin, Stéphanie Guillon, and Marilyne Scarselli | BAFTA, CCA, MUAH (x3) |
| 2. Wicked Part I (Universal Pictures) Frances Hannon, Laura Blount, and Sarah Nuth | BAFTA, CCA, MUAH (x2) |
| 3. Emilia Pérez (Netflix) Julia Floch Carbonel, Emmanuel Janvier, and Jean-Christophe Spadaccini | BAFTA, MUAH |
| 4. A Different Man (A24) Mike Marino, David Presto, and Crystal Jurado | CCA, MUAH |
| 5. Nosferatu (Focus Features) David White, Traci Loader, and Suzanne Stokes-Munton | BAFTA, CCA |
VISUAL EFFECTS
| 1. Dune: Part Two (Warner Bros) Paul Lambert, Stephen James, Rhys Salcombe, and Gerd Nefzer | BAFTA, CCA, VES |
| 2. Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes (20th Century Studios) Erik Winquist, Stephen Unterfranz, Paul Story, and Rodney Burke | Annie, BAFTA, CCA, VES |
| 3. Better Man (Paramount Pictures) Luke Millar, David Clayton, Keith Herft, and Peter Stubbs | Annie, BAFTA, CCA, VES |
| 4. Wicked (Universal Pictures) Pablo Helman, Jonathan Fawkner, David Shirk, and Paul Corbould | BAFTA, CCA |
| 5. Alien: Romulus (20th Century Studios) Eric Barba, Nelson Sepulveda-Fauser, Daniel Macarin, and Shane Mahan |
ANIMATED FEATURE
| 1. The Wild Robot (Universal Pictures) Chris Sanders and Jeff Hermann | BAFTA, CCA, GG |
| 2. Flow (Janus Films/Sideshow) Nominees to be determined | BAFTA, CCA, EFA, GG |
| 3. Inside Out 2 (Walt Disney/Pixar) Kelsey Mann and Mark Nielsen | BAFTA, CCA, GG |
| 4. Wallace & Gromit: Vengeance Most Fowl (Aardman/Netflix) Nominees to be determined | BAFTA, CCA, GG |
| 5. Memoir of a Snail (IFC Films) Adam Elliot and Liz Kearney | CCA, GG |
DOCUMENTARY FEATURE
| 1. No Other Land (No U.S. distribution) Basel Adra, Rachel Szor, Hamdan Ballal, and Yuval Abraham | BAFTA, Berlinale Documentary Award – Berlin, CEH, EFA, Gotham, IDA |
| 2. Porcelain War (Picturehouse) Brendan Bellomo, Slava Leontyev, Aniela Sidorska, and Paula DuPré Pesmen | CEH, DGA, PGA, Sundance |
| 3. Sugarcane (National Geographic Documentary Films) Nominees to be determined | CCA, CEH, DGA, IDA |
| 4. Black Box Diaries (MTV Documentary Films) Shiori Itō, Eric Nyari, and Hanna Aqvilin | BAFTA, CEH, IDA |
| 5. Soundtrack to a Coup d’Etat (Kino Lorber) Johan Grimonprez, Daan Milius, and Rémi Grellety | DGA, EFA, Gotham, IDA |
INTERNATIONAL FEATURE FILM
| 1. France – Emilia Pérez (Netflix) | BAFTA, Cannes (Jury Prize), CCA, EFA, GG |
| 2. Brazil – I’m Still Here (Sony Pictures Classics) | BAFTA, CCA, GG |
| 3. Germany – The Seed of the Sacred Fig (NEON) | BAFTA, Cannes (Special Jury Prize), CCA, EFA, GG |
| 4. Latvia – Flow (Sideshow/Janus) | CCA, EFA |
| 5. Denmark – The Girl with the Needle (MUBI) | GG |
ANIMATED SHORT
| 1. Beautiful Men Nicolas Keppens and Brecht Van Elslande | Annie |
| 2. Yuck! Loïc Espuche and Juliette Marquet | |
| 3. Wander to Wonder Nina Gantz and Stienette Boskloppe | Annie |
| 4. In the Shadow of the Cypress Shirin Sohani and Hossein Molayemi | Annie |
| 5. Magic Candles Daisuke Nishio and Takashi Washio |
DOCUMENTARY SHORT
| 1. Incident Bill Morrison and Jamie Kalven |
| 2. I Am Ready, Warden Smriti Mundhra and Maya Gnyp |
| 3. Death by Numbers Kim A. Snyder and Janique L. Robillard |
| 4. The Only Girl in the Orchestra Molly O’Brien and Lisa Remington |
| 5. Instruments of a Beating Heart Ema Ryan Yamazaki and Eric Nyari) |
LIVE ACTION SHORT
| 1. The Man Who Could Not Remain Silent Nebojša Slijepčević and Danijel Pek |
| 2. Anuja Adam J. Graves and Suchitra Mattai |
| 3. I’m Not a Robot Victoria Warmerdam and Trent |
| 4. The Last Ranger Cindy Lee and Darwin Shaw |
| 5. A Lien Sam Cutler-Kreutz and David Cutler-Kreutz |
Erik Anderson is the founder/owner and Editor-in-Chief of AwardsWatch and has always loved all things Oscar, having watched the Academy Awards since he was in single digits; making lists, rankings and predictions throughout the show. This led him down the path to obsessing about awards. Much later, he found himself in film school and the film forums of GoldDerby, and then migrated over to the former Oscarwatch (now AwardsDaily), before breaking off to create AwardsWatch in 2013.
He is a Rotten Tomatoes-approved critic, accredited by the Cannes Film Festival, Telluride Film Festival, Toronto International Film Festival and more, is a member of the International Cinephile Society (ICS), The Society of LGBTQ Entertainment Critics (GALECA), Critics Choice Association (CCA), San Francisco Bay Area Film Critics Circle (SFBAFCC) and the International Press Academy. Among his many achieved goals with AwardsWatch, he has given a platform to underrepresented writers and critics and supplied them with access to film festivals and the industry and calls the Bay Area his home where he lives with his husband and son.
He is a Rotten Tomatoes-approved critic, accredited by the Cannes Film Festival, Telluride Film Festival, Toronto International Film Festival and more, is a member of the International Cinephile Society (ICS), The Society of LGBTQ Entertainment Critics (GALECA), Critics Choice Association (CCA), San Francisco Bay Area Film Critics Circle (SFBAFCC) and the International Press Academy. Among his many achieved goals with AwardsWatch, he has given a platform to underrepresented writers and critics and supplied them with access to film festivals and the industry and calls the Bay Area his home where he lives with his husband and son.
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