Frontrunner Friday: Date change for ‘Beale Street,’ ‘A Star Is Born’ drops songs and Viggo Mortensen…well

It’s only been a week but we’ve already seen a tidal wave midterm election, the beginning of AFI Fest (where I’ll be for the first time), a significant date change from Annapurna and an actor who may have just sunk his chances at an Oscar nomination. 

Barry Jenkins’ If Beale Street Could Talk, which was set to debut in New York and Los Angeles on November 30th after strong festival run (including placing top 3 for TIFF’s Audience Award), excellent reviews and great word of mouth. Then suddenly, Annapurna plucked it from that plummy spot and it will now be released on December 14th limited and go wide on Christmas – the same day as the studio’s other two big Oscar pushes, Vice and Destroyer. There seems to be a method to the madness though; last week Netflix bowed to Academy pressure and broke from its normal release strategy by putting ROMA (as well as Bird Box and The Ballad of Buster Scruggs) in theaters before they start streaming. This moves Beale Street out of ROMA‘s way an what will likely be one of the year’s highest theatrical per screen averages (if Netflix even releases that info). In 2016, Jenkins’ Best Picture winner Moonlight earned a whopping $100K per theater, the second best that year (behind La La Land, no less). Anticipation and expectation is high for the film and I’m sure Annapurna is counting on that. Chances look good; at the moment the top opening weekend based on per screen is Amazon’s Suspiria with $92K in each of the two theaters it debuted in the week before Halloween. 

Warner Bros made an unforced error this week and one that I can’t really see the logic to. Originally, it was promoting three songs from its biggest Oscar hopeful, A Star Is Born: “Shallow,” “I’ll Never Love Again” and “Remember Us This Way.” Now, the film’s new FYC page only lists “Shallow.” The question remains: were all three songs officially submitted for consideration before WB made this change? If so, then INLA and RUTW could still be nominated, according to Academy rules. FYCs are suggestions, not laws. Still, that makes me knock them down out of the top 5 this week. A strange choice, to be sure, since “Shallow” is a mortal lock and either of the other two songs had a very strong chance of making it in. 

I’m dinging Viggo Mortensen in Best Actor after his bizarre and unnecessary use of the n-word at a recent Q&A for his film Green Book. The politically outspoken actor (he was a staunch Jill Stein supporter in 2016) has always been loose with his language but he might have gone too far for voters this time if they catch wind of it. It’s hard to say if it will affect the film at large, or Best Supporting Actor frontrunner Mahershala Ali. I’m going to guess that it won’t. It might not even affect Mortensen. But it doesn’t take long for word to spread and for a name to become toxic so I’ll be keeping my ear to the ground in LA to hear what people are saying about this controversy. 

The official submission list for Documentary Feature is in, all 166 of them. We won’t have the shortlist for another five weeks but with so many high-profile, blockbuster docs this year something is getting snubbed big time but I’m betting it won’t be RBG.

As always, you can see that and follow my 2019 Oscar predictions (in broader context), updated live and in real time, in 21 categories right here.

Here are my previous Frontrunner Friday picks and below are my picks for November 9, 2018.

BEST PICTURE

1. ROMA (Netflix – 11/21 limited theatrical, 12/14 streaming)
2. A Star is Born (Warner Bros – 10/5)
3. If Beale Street Could Talk (Annapurna – 12/14 limited, 12/25 wide)
4. Green Book (Universal – 11/16 limited, 11/21 wide)
5. The Favourite (Fox Searchlight – 11/23)
6. BlacKkKlansman (Focus Features – 8/10)
7. Widows (20th Century Fox – 11/16)
8. Black Panther (Disney – 2/16)
9. First Man (Universal – 10/12)
10. Vice (Annapurna – 12/25)

DIRECTOR

1. Alfonso Cuarón – ROMA (Netflix)
2. Bradley Cooper – A Star Is Born (Warner Bros)
3. Barry Jenkins – If Beale Street Could Talk (Annapurna)
4. Yorgos Lanthimos – The Favourite (Fox Searchlight)
5. Spike Lee – BlacKkKlansman (Focus Features)

BEST ACTOR

1. Bradley Cooper – A Star Is Born (Warner Bros)
2. Christian Bale – Vice (Annapurna)
3. Lucas Hedges – Boy Erased (Focus Features)
4. Viggo Mortensen – Green Book (Universal)
5. John David Washington – BlacKkKlansman (Focus Features)

BEST ACTRESS

1. Glenn Close – The Wife (Sony Classics)
2. Lady Gaga – A Star Is Born (Warner Bros)
3. Olivia Colman – The Favourite (Fox Searchlight)
4. Viola Davis – Widows (20th Century Fox)
5. Yalitza Aparicio – ROMA (Netflix)

SUPPORTING ACTOR

1. Mahershala Ali – Green Book (Universal)
2. Richard E. Grant – Can You Ever Forgive Me? (Fox Searchlight)
3. Timothée Chalamet – Beautiful Boy (Amazon)
4. Sam Elliott – A Star Is Born (Warner Bros)
5. Daniel Kaluuya – Widows (20th Century Fox)

SUPPORTING ACTRESS

1. Regina King – If Beale Street Could Talk (Annapurna)
2. Amy Adams – Vice (Annapurna)
3. Emma Stone – The Favourite (Fox Searchlight)
4. Rachel Weisz – The Favourite (Fox Searchlight)
5. Nicole Kidman – Boy Erased (Focus Features)

ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

1. If Beale Street Could Talk (Annapurna)
2. BlacKkKlansman (Focus Features)
3. Can You Ever Forgive Me? (Fox Searchlight)
4. Black Panther (Disney)
5. Widows (20th Century Fox)

ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

1. ROMA (Netflix)
2. The Favourite (Fox Searchlight)
3. Green Book (Universal)
4. Vice (Annapurna)
5. First Reformed (A24)

FILM EDITING

1. First Man (Universal)
2. ROMA (Netflix)
3. The Favourite (Fox Searchlight)
4. A Star is Born (Warner Bros)
5. If Beale Street Could Talk (Annapurna)

CINEMATOGRAPHY

1. ROMA (Netflix)
2. If Beale Street Could Talk (Annapurna)
3. First Man (Universal)
4. A Star is Born (Warner Bros)
5. The Favourite (Fox Searchlight)

PRODUCTION DESIGN

1. First Man (Universal)
2. The Favourite (Fox Searchlight)
3. The Nutcracker and the Four Realms (Disney)
4. Mary Poppins Returns (Disney)
5. Black Panther (Disney)

COSTUME DESIGN

1. The Favourite (Fox Searchlight)
2. Mary Poppins Returns (Disney)
3. The Nutcracker and the Four Realms (Disney)
4. Black Panther (Disney)
5. Fantastic Beasts: The Crimes of Grindelwald (Warner Bros)

ORIGINAL SCORE

1. If Beale Street Could Talk (Annapurna)
2. First Man (Universal)
3. Mary Poppins Returns (Disney)
4. Widows (20th Century Fox)
5. BlacKkKlansman (Focus Features)

ORIGINAL SONG

1. A Star Is Born, “Shallow” (Warner Bros)
2. Black Panther, “All the Stars” (Disney)
3. Mary Poppins Returns, “The Place Where Lost Things Go” (Disney)
4. Boy Erased, “Revelation” (Focus Features)
5. Free Solo, “Gravity” (NatGeo)

SOUND EDITING

1. First Man (Universal)
2. ROMA (Netflix)
3. Black Panther (Disney)
4. Incredibles 2 (Disney)
5. A Quiet Place (Paramount)

SOUND MIXING

1. A Star Is Born (Warner Bros)
2. First Man (Universal)
3. Black Panther (Disney)
4. ROMA (Netflix)
5. Mary Poppins Returns (Disney)

MAKEUP & HAIRSTYLING

1. The Favourite (Fox Searchlight)
2. Border (Neon)
3. The Nutcracker and the Four Realms (Disney)

VISUAL EFFECTS

1. Black Panther (Disney)
2. Ready Player One (Warner Bros)
3. Bumblebee (Paramount)
4. Mary Poppins Returns (Disney)
5. Avengers: Infinity War (Disney)

ANIMATED FEATURE

1. Incredibles 2 (Disney)
2. Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse (Sony)
3. Isle of Dogs (Fox Searchlight)
4. Ralph Breaks the Internet (Disney)
5. Mirai (GKids/Fathom Events)

FOREIGN LANGUAGE FILM

1. Mexico – ROMA (Netflix)
2. Lebanon – Capharnaüm (Sony Classics)
3. Poland – Cold War (Amazon)
4. Denmark – The Guilty (Magnolia)
5. United Kingdom – I Am Not a Witch (Film Movement)
6. Italy – Dogman (Magnolia)
7. Germany – Never Look Away (Sony Classics)
8. Japan – Shoplifters (Magnolia)
9. Sweden – Border (Neon)

DOCUMENTARY FEATURE

1. RBG (Magnolia / CNN Films)
2. Won’t You Be My Neighbor? (Focus Features)
3. Hale County This Morning, This Evening (Cinema Guild)
4. Shirkers (Netflix)
5. Minding the Gap (Hulu / Magnolia)