Frontrunner Friday: Did SAG lay down the gauntlet on some Oscar hopefuls?

Last week, the Golden Globe nominations put Vice on the Oscar map after months of wondering how that film might factor in. They loved The Favourite, Green Book and A Star Is Born.

We weren’t even done reeling over the Kevin Hart Oscar host debacle when this week, the Critics’ Choice went in deep for First Man, a film that crashed to Earth a month ago (the Globes only gave it Score and Supporting Actress noms). They also loved The Favourite, giving it a field-best 14 nominations.

On Wednesday, the Screen Actors Guild spoke, and loudly. As per usual every year, shocking snubs and surprise inclusions were abound. Although Supporting Actor is looking more and more locked in (the Globes and SAG nominated the same five actors – the five you’ll see below), the Supporting Actress race got not one but two wrenches thrown in by SAG voters. Paramount’s gambit to put everyone in supporting for A Quiet Place worked for Emily Blunt who earned a nomination (one of two for her that day). Out of nowhere came Margot Robbie in Mary Queen of Scots.

That meant a snub for Regina King in If Beale Street Could Talk. Yes, the dominant critics’ favorite this year – she’s won over a dozen prizes already, including LA and NY – was missing. Not only her but her film entirely. When you add the Globe and Critics’ Choice snubs for Barry Jenkins in Best Director it starts to paint a picture of a film that’s not likely to connect with voters the way it was thought to, or should. Never mind Widows, a film that has been completely shut out of the awards race. Bigger, Oscar frontrunner ROMA came up empty-handed too. Netflix has always been well-received by SAG with screeners and accessibility to their films to the nom comm but not this year. Although the film has hit everywhere else and is the overwhelming critics’ favorite, it doesn’t bode well if actors aren’t going to go for it en masse.

Another huge snub came for the other main critics’ pick this season: Ethan Hawke (First Reformed) in Best Actor. Another double-digit winner so far, Hawke has missed the Globe and now SAG, two wildly different groups in terms of size, region and voters.

SAG told us two other things; one, actors love A Star Is Born. It got four nominations, more than any other film; three individual noms plus Outstanding Cast. Compare that to The Favourite, which also got three individual noms but then missed out on the top one. Who was there in its place? BlacKkKlansman got in but it also got Adam Driver in and buoyed its star John David Washington to top 5 status. Black Panther and Crazy Rich Asians, two massive hits with huge casts, both got in without individual mentions. But it was Bohemian Rhapsody in Outstanding Cast that made everyone take notice. Sure, Rami Malek was going to get his own nomination, he’s been landing everything so far. But after the Globes went for it, for SAG to double down on the film, a critical misfire but a huge box office hit, to get in there means it should be taken seriously in more than just the Best Actor race.

Something to keep in mind this season of Oscar voting though; this is going to be the first year in which the entire Oscar voting process — from shortlists, through nominations voting, through final voting — will take place exclusively online. No paper ballots will be made available to Academy members at any point. That could spell trouble for older voters who’ve only ever used paper ballots and could skew things differently than we’ve seen so far.

But wait, there’s more! On Monday, December 17th we’ll have shortlists drop in nine categories, including Original Score and Original Song for the first time since 1979.

Here are my Frontrunner Friday Oscar predictions in 21 categories for December 14, 2018. The list reflects shortlist predictions in respective categories.

BEST PICTURE

1. A Star is Born (AFI, BFCA, GG, NBR, SAG)
2. Black Panther (AFI, BFCA, NBR, GG, SAG)
3. BlacKkKlansman (AFI, BFCA, GG, SAG)
4. ROMA (AFI*, BFCA, GG**, NBR)
5. The Favourite (AFI, BFCA, GG)
6. Green Book (AFI, BFCA, GG, NBR winner)
7. Vice (BFCA, GG)
8. If Beale Street Could Talk (AFI, BFCA, GG, NBR, Spirit)
9. Mary Poppins Returns (AFI, BFCA, GG, NBR)
10. Bohemian Rhapsody (GG, SAG)

*special award
**Foreign Language Film nominee

DIRECTOR

1. Alfonso Cuarón – ROMA (BFCA, GG)
2. Bradley Cooper – A Star Is Born (BFCA, GG)
3. Spike Lee – BlacKkKlansman (BFCA, GG)
4. Ryan Coogler – Black Panther
5. Adam McKay – Vice (BFCA, GG)

ACTOR

1. Bradley Cooper – A Star Is Born (BFCA, GG, SAG)
2. Christian Bale – Vice (BFCA, GG, SAG)
3. Viggo Mortensen – Green Book (BFCA, GG,SAG)
4. Rami Malek – Bohemian Rhapsody (BFCA, GG, SAG)
5. John David Washington – BlacKkKlansman (GG, SAG)

ACTRESS

1. Glenn Close – The Wife (BFCA, GG, SAG, Spirit)
2. Lady Gaga – A Star Is Born (BFCA, GG, SAG)
3. Olivia Colman – The Favourite (BFCA, GG, SAG)
4. Melissa McCarthy – Can You Ever Forgive Me? (BFCA, GG, SAG)
5. Yalitza Aparicio – ROMA (BFCA)

SUPPORTING ACTOR

1. Richard E. Grant – Can You Ever Forgive Me? (BFCA, GG, SAG, Spirit)
2. Adam Driver – BlacKkKlansman (BFCA, GG, SAG, Spirit)
3. Mahershala Ali – Green Book (BFCA, GG, SAG)
4. Sam Elliott – A Star Is Born (BFCA, SAG)
5. Timothée Chalamet – Beautiful Boy (BFCA, GG, SAG)

SUPPORTING ACTRESS

1. Amy Adams – Vice (BFCA, GG, SAG)
2. Regina King – If Beale Street Could Talk (BFCA, GG, Spirit)
3. Emma Stone – The Favourite (BFCA, GG, SAG)
4. Rachel Weisz – The Favourite (BFCA, GG, SAG)
5. Thomasin Harcourt McKenzie – Leave No Trace (Spirit)

ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

1. If Beale Street Could Talk (BFCA, GG)
2. Can You Ever Forgive Me? (BFCA, Spirit)
3. BlacKkKlansman (BFCA)
4. Black Panther (BFCA)
5. Leave No Trace

ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

1. The Favourite (BFCA, GG)
2. First Reformed (BFCA, Spirit)
3. ROMA (BFCA, GG)
4. Vice (BFCA, GG)
5. Eighth Grade (BFCA)

FILM EDITING

1. ROMA (BFCA)
2. A Star is Born (BFCA)
3. First Man (BFCA)
4. Vice (BFCA)
5. Widows (BFCA)

CINEMATOGRAPHY

1. ROMA (BFCA)
2. If Beale Street Could Talk (BFCA)
3. First Man (BFCA)
4. A Star is Born (BFCA)
5. Cold War

PRODUCTION DESIGN

1. The Favourite (BFCA)
2. First Man (BFCA)
3. Mary Poppins Returns (BFCA)
4. Black Panther (BFCA)
5. The Nutcracker and the Four Realms

COSTUME DESIGN

1. The Favourite (BFCA)
2. Mary Poppins Returns (BFCA)
3. Black Panther(BFCA)
4. Fantastic Beasts: The Crimes of Grindelwald
5. Mary Queen of Scots (BFCA)

ORIGINAL SCORE (15-film shortlist)

1. If Beale Street Could Talk (BFCA)
2. First Man (BFCA, GG)
3. Mary Poppins Returns (BFCA, GG)
4. Black Panther (BFCA, GG)
5. Widows
6. BlacKkKlansman
7. Isle of Dogs (BFCA, GG)
8. Mary Queen of Scots
9. Vice
10. Incredibles 2
11. A Quiet Place (GG)
12. The Sisters Brothers
13. Suspiria
14. The Ballad of Buster Scruggs
15. Boy Erased

ORIGINAL SONG (15-film shortlist)

1. A Star Is Born, “Shallow” (BFCA, GG)
2. Black Panther, “All the Stars” (BFCA, GG)
3. Mary Poppins Returns, “The Place Where Lost Things Go” (BFCA)
4. Boy Erased, “Revelation” (GG)
5. RBG, “I’ll Fight” (BFCA)
6. Mary Poppins Returns, “Trip a Light Fantastic” (BFCA)
7. Dumplin,’ “Girl in the Movies” (BFCA, GG)
8. A Private War, “Requiem for a Private War” (GG)
9. On the Basis of Sex, “Here Comes Change”
10. Free Solo, “Gravity”
11. Deadpool 2, “Ashes”
12. The Ballad of Buster Scruggs, “When a Cowboy Trades His Spurs for Wings”
13. The Hate U Give, “We Won’t Move”
14. Ralph Breaks the Internet, “A Place Called the Slaughter Race”
15. Love, Simon, “Alfie’s Song (Not So Typical Love Song)”

SOUND EDITING

1. First Man
2. ROMA
3. Black Panther
4. Ready Player One
5. A Quiet Place

SOUND MIXING

1. A Star Is Born
2. First Man
3. Black Panther
4. ROMA
5. Mary Poppins Returns

MAKEUP & HAIRSTYLING (7-film shortlist)

1. The Favourite (BFCA)
2. Vice (BFCA)
3. Border
4. Black Panther (BFCA)
5. Suspiria (BFCA)
6. Mary Queen of Scots (BFCA)
7. Bohemian Rhapsody (BFCA)

VISUAL EFFECTS (10-film shortlist)

1. Black Panther (BFCA)
2. Mary Poppins Returns (BFCA)
3. Ready Player One (BFCA)
4. Avengers: Infinity War (BFCA)
5. First Man (BFCA)
6. Bumblebee
7. Ant-Man and the Wasp
8. Mission: Impossible – Fallout (BFCA)
9. Paddington 2
10. Welcome to Marwen

ANIMATED FEATURE

1. Incredibles 2 (Annie, BFCA, GG)
2. Ralph Breaks the Internet (Annie, BFCA, GG)
3. Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse (Annie, BFCA, GG)
4. Isle of Dogs (Annie, BFCA,GG)
5. Mirai (Annie, BFCA, GG)

FOREIGN-LANGUAGE FILM (9-film shortlist)

1. Mexico – ROMA (BFCA, GG)
2. Poland – Cold War (BFCA)
3. Lebanon – Capharnaüm (BFCA, GG)
4. Germany – Never Look Away (GG)
5. Japan – Shoplifters (BFCA, GG)
6. Denmark – The Guilty
7. Paraguay – The Heiresses
8. South Korea – Burning (BFCA)
9. Belgium – Girl (GG)

DOCUMENTARY FEATURE (15-film shortlist)

1. Won’t You Be My Neighbor? (BFCA winner, CYE, IDA, Spirit)
2. RBG (BFCA)
3. Hale County This Morning, This Evening (CYE, IDA, Spirit)
4. Minding the Gap (BFCA, CYE, Spirit)
5. Shirkers (Spirit)
6. Free Solo (BFCA, IDA)
7. Three Identical Strangers (BFCA, CYE)
8. Dark Money (BFCA, IDA)
9. On Her Shoulders (Spirit)
10. Crime + Punishment (IDA)
11. Bisbee ’17 (CYE)
12. Quincy
13. Of Fathers and Sons (CYE, IDA, Spirit)
14. Reversing Roe
15. The Silence of Others (IDA)