Frontrunner Friday: ‘Green Book’ rises, ‘ROMA’ gets advanced theatrical run

Green Book won another film festival audience award this week, its fourth, cementing the film as one of fall’s biggest crowd pleasers and pushing it up another spot in my Frontrunner Friday Best Picture predictions. 

Also earlier this week was the announcement from Universal that it would be giving Green Book a 20-theater limited release ahead of its November 21st nationwide bow. It was a shrewd decision; they’re looking to take the strong festival performance of the film and building on another final word of mouth push before its Thanksgiving splash. Strangely, to me at least, the early tracking for the film is very low: sub-10M for the Thanksgiving holiday. Tracking has been way off this season but I went out on a limb a few days ago saying that Green Book could have a $30-40M bow in its wide release and could end up performing as strongly as 2009’s The Blind Side. Maybe not $255M Blind Side dollars (I’m not that bullish) but I really can’t fathom this lowball tracking numbers.

In other theatrical news, Netflix has given in – just a bit – and will give ROMA (along with Bird Box and The Ballad of Buster Scruggs) a theatrical release ahead of its streaming debut, a first. The decision to appease Oscar voters who aren’t that keen on the streamer’s day-and-date release strategy could prove to be what tips ROMA over A Star Is Born (or Green Book) in this season’s Oscar race. 

As always, you can see that and follow my 2019 Oscar predictions (in broader context), updated live and in real time, in 21 categories right here.

Here are my Frontrunner Friday picks for November 2, 2018.

BEST PICTURE

1. ROMA (Netflix – 11/21 limited theatrical, 12/14 streaming)
2. A Star is Born (Warner Bros – 10/5)
3. If Beale Street Could Talk (Annapurna – 11/30)
4. Green Book (Universal – 11/16 limited, 11/21 wide)
5. The Favourite (Fox Searchlight – 11/23)
6. BlacKkKlansman (Focus Features – 8/10)
7. Widows (20th Century Fox – 11/16)
8. Black Panther (Disney – 2/16)
9. First Man (Universal – 10/12)
10. Vice (Annapurna – 12/14)

DIRECTOR

1. Alfonso Cuarón – ROMA (Netflix)
2. Bradley Cooper – A Star Is Born (Warner Bros)
3. Barry Jenkins – If Beale Street Could Talk (Annapurna)
4. Yorgos Lanthimos – The Favourite (Fox Searchlight)
5. Spike Lee – BlacKkKlansman (Focus Features)

BEST ACTOR

1. Bradley Cooper – A Star Is Born (Warner Bros)
2. Christian Bale – Vice (Annapurna)
3. Viggo Mortensen – Green Book (Universal)
4. Lucas Hedges – Boy Erased (Focus Features)
5. John David Washington – BlacKkKlansman (Focus Features)

BEST ACTRESS

1. Glenn Close – The Wife (Sony Classics)
2. Lady Gaga – A Star Is Born (Warner Bros)
3. Olivia Colman – The Favourite (Fox Searchlight)
4. Viola Davis – Widows (20th Century Fox)
5. Yalitza Aparicio – ROMA (Netflix)

SUPPORTING ACTOR

1. Mahershala Ali – Green Book (Universal)
2. Richard E. Grant – Can You Ever Forgive Me? (Fox Searchlight)
3. Timothée Chalamet – Beautiful Boy (Amazon)
4. Sam Elliott – A Star Is Born (Warner Bros)
5. Daniel Kaluuya – Widows (20th Century Fox)

SUPPORTING ACTRESS

1. Regina King – If Beale Street Could Talk (Annapurna)
2. Amy Adams – Vice (Annapurna)
3. Emma Stone – The Favourite (Fox Searchlight)
4. Rachel Weisz – The Favourite (Fox Searchlight)
5. Nicole Kidman – Boy Erased (Focus Features)

ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

1. If Beale Street Could Talk (Annapurna)
2. BlacKkKlansman (Focus Features)
3. Can You Ever Forgive Me? (Fox Searchlight)
4. Black Panther (Disney)
5. Widows (20th Century Fox)

ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

1. ROMA (Netflix)
2. The Favourite (Fox Searchlight)
3. Green Book (Universal)
4. Vice (Annapurna)
5. First Reformed (A24)

FILM EDITING

1. First Man (Universal)
2. ROMA (Netflix)
3. The Favourite (Fox Searchlight)
4. A Star is Born (Warner Bros)
5. If Beale Street Could Talk (Annapurna)

CINEMATOGRAPHY

1. ROMA (Netflix)
2. If Beale Street Could Talk (Annapurna)
3. First Man (Universal)
4. A Star is Born (Warner Bros)
5. The Favourite (Fox Searchlight)

PRODUCTION DESIGN

1. First Man (Universal)
2. The Favourite (Fox Searchlight)
3. The Nutcracker and the Four Realms (Disney)
4. Mary Poppins Returns (Disney)
5. Black Panther (Disney)

COSTUME DESIGN

1. The Favourite (Fox Searchlight)
2. Mary Poppins Returns (Disney)
3. The Nutcracker and the Four Realms (Disney)
4. Black Panther (Disney)
5. Fantastic Beasts: The Crimes of Grindelwald (Warner Bros)

ORIGINAL SCORE

1. If Beale Street Could Talk (Annapurna)
2. First Man (Universal)
3. Mary Poppins Returns (Disney)
4. Widows (20th Century Fox)
5. BlacKkKlansman (Focus Features)

ORIGINAL SONG

1. A Star Is Born, “Shallow” (Warner Bros)
2. Black Panther, “All the Stars” (Disney)
3. A Star Is Born, “I’ll Never Love Again” (Warner Bros)
4. Mary Poppins Returns, “The Place Where Lost Things Go” (Disney)
5. Boy Erased, “Revelation” (Focus Features)

SOUND EDITING

1. First Man (Universal)
2. ROMA (Netflix)
3. Black Panther (Disney)
4. Incredibles 2 (Disney)
5. A Quiet Place (Paramount)

SOUND MIXING

1. A Star Is Born (Warner Bros)
2. First Man (Universal)
3. Black Panther (Disney)
4. ROMA (Netflix)
5. Mary Poppins Returns (Disney)

MAKEUP AND HAIRSTYLING

1. The Favourite (Fox Searchlight)
2. Border (Neon)
3. The Nutcracker and the Four Realms (Disney)

VISUAL EFFECTS

1. Black Panther (Disney)
2. Ready Player One (Warner Bros)
3. Bumblebee (Paramount)
4. Mary Poppins Returns (Disney)
5. Avengers: Infinity War (Disney)

ANIMATED FEATURE

1. Incredibles 2 (Disney)
2. Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse (Sony)
3. Isle of Dogs (Fox Searchlight)
4. Ralph Breaks the Internet (Disney)
5. Mirai (GKids/Fathom Events)

FOREIGN LANGUAGE FILM

1. Mexico – ROMA (Netflix)
2. Lebanon – Capharnaüm (Sony Classics)
3. Poland – Cold War (Amazon)
4. Denmark – The Guilty (Magnolia)
5. United Kingdom – I Am Not a Witch (Film Movement)
6. Italy – Dogman (Magnolia)
7. Germany – Never Look Away (Sony Classics)
8. Japan – Shoplifters (Magnolia)
9. Sweden – Border (Neon)

DOCUMENTARY FEATURE

1. RBG (Magnolia / CNN Films)
2. Won’t You Be My Neighbor? (Focus Features)
3. Hale County This Morning, This Evening (Cinema Guild)
4. Shirkers (Netflix)
5. Minding the Gap (Hulu / Magnolia)