Frontrunner Friday: Oscar nominations and PGA have given us a real race

In this month alone, controversies rose and crested at the banks of a few major awards players in a way that could potentially change Oscar voting this year and forever. Or maybe it will just be the same as it ever was.

For Green Book, which has taken hit upon hit this season over everything from its point of view and perspective (and even its title) to a 2015 tweet from now Oscar-nominated writer and producer Nick Vallelonga, its triple wins at the Globes didn’t seem to have too much impact on its Oscar nominations as it still earned five, including Best Picture. Bigger, the film went on to win the PGA (Producers Guild Award) in the midst of this and on a preferential ballot. In 29 years only 9 films have hit PGA and missed the Best Picture Oscar – two of them in the last three years. The film’s miss in Best Director is only solidifying the Driving Miss Daisy comparisons as that film also missed director (but got film editing) and won PGA, although back then it was after the Oscars – but still in the same voting period.

For Bohemian Rhapsody, it’s coming of two major Golden Globe wins (Best Picture – Drama, Best Actor in a Drama for Rami Malek) and potential SAG wins this weekend, even as a bombshell article dropped by The Atlantic this week (after being quashed at Esquire by Hearst executives) of fired director Bryan Singer detailing allegations of rape and sex with underage boys. With 5 Oscar nominations it seems to have no signs of slowing down. As the song goes, “Don’t stop me know, ’cause I’m having a good time.”

A Star Is Born remains a guild monster, hitting everything it possibly yet it still feels really short on wins. Right now, I see it going the way of its Golden Globe run and only winning Original Song (which it at least gets to perform, unlike other song nominees). But then it underwhelmed on Oscar nomination Tuesday, missing out on film editing and, more importantly, best director for Bradley Cooper.

BlacKkKlansman is right behind having only missed out on the Art Directors Guild, American Society of Cinematographers and Casting Audio Society. It’s a major threat and I’m back to it winning it all.

ROMA is the Critics’ Choice and Golden Globe winner (foreign language film for the latter) but has zero SAG nominations. But, the acting nods for Yalitza Aparicio in Best Actress and Marina de Tavira in Supporting Actress (with ZERO precursors or critics mentions – a new record) speaks to the fact that actors do love the film and may break from the other industry and guild awards in a big way.

The Screen Actors Guild Awards are this weekend (check out my predictions here) and while Green Book isn’t nominated for the top award, Cast in a Motion Picture, Bohemian Rhapsody is. I can’t say it doesn’t have a chance to win there, because the love for the film within the industry is definitely there. But if it’s A Star Is Born or BlacKkKlansman, which are stronger Oscar frontrunners for Best Picture, then we’ve got a race. Oscar voting doesn’t begin until February 12th, a full two weeks for members to absorb SAG wins, BAFTA wins (February 10th) and if any of these controversies will have any impact on their choices.

Here are my Frontrunner Friday predictions for the 2019 Oscars on Friday, January 25, 2019 and don’t forget to follow my brand new 2019 Oscar Winner Predictions page here, updating live until the day of the Academy Awards.

BEST PICTURE

1. BLACKkKLANSMAN
Sean McKittrick, Jason Blum, Raymond Mansfield, Jordan Peele and Spike Lee
2. ROMA (BFCA, GG*)
Gabriela Rodríguez and Alfonso Cuarón
3. GREEN BOOK (GG, PGA)
Jim Burke, Charles B. Wessler, Brian Currie, Peter Farrelly and Nick Vallelonga
4. THE FAVOURITE
Ceci Dempsey, Ed Guiney, Lee Magiday and Yorgos Lanthimos
5. VICE
Dede Gardner, Jeremy Kleiner, Adam McKay and Kevin Messick
6. BLACK PANTHER
Kevin Feige
7. A STAR IS BORN
Bill Gerber, Bradley Cooper and Lynette Howell Taylor
8. BOHEMIAN RHAPSODY (GG)
Graham King

BAFTA – British Film Academy Awards
BFCA – Broadcast Film Critics Association (Critics Choice)
GG – Golden Globe
PGA- Producers Guild of America
SAG – Screen Actors Guild

*Foreign Language Film winner

DIRECTOR

1. Alfonso Cuarón – ROMA (BFCA, GG)
2. Spike Lee – BLACKkKLANSMAN
3. Yorgos Lanthimos – THE FAVOURITE
4. Adam McKay – VICE
5. Pawel Pawlikowski – COLD WAR

BAFTA – British Film Academy Awards
BFCA – Broadcast Film Critics Association (Critics Choice)
DGA – Directors Guild of America
GG – Golden Globe

ACTRESS

1. Glenn Close – THE WIFE (BFCA, GG)
2. Olivia Colman – THE FAVOURITE (GG)
3. Lady Gaga – A STAR IS BORN (BFCA)
4. Yalitza Aparicio – ROMA
5. Melissa McCarthy – CAN YOU EVER FORGIVE ME?

BAFTA – British Film Academy Awards
BFCA – Broadcast Film Critics Association (Critics Choice)
GG – Golden Globe
SAG – Screen Actors Guild
Spirit – Independent Spirit Awards

ACTOR

1. Rami Malek – BOHEMIAN RHAPSODY (GG)
2. Christian Bale – VICE (BFCA, GG)
3. Bradley Cooper – A STAR IS BORN
4. Viggo Mortensen – GREEN BOOK
5. Willem Dafoe – AT ETERNITY’S GATE

BAFTA – British Film Academy Awards
BFCA – Broadcast Film Critics Association (Critics Choice)
GG – Golden Globe
SAG – Screen Actors Guild

SUPPORTING ACTRESS

1. Regina King – IF BEALE STREET COULD TALK (BFCA, GG)
2. Amy Adams – VICE
3. Rachel Weisz – THE FAVOURITE
4. Marina de Tavira – ROMA
5. Emma Stone – THE FAVOURITE

BAFTA – British Film Academy Awards
BFCA – Broadcast Film Critics Association (Critics Choice)
GG – Golden Globe
SAG – Screen Actors Guild
Spirit – Independent Spirit Awards

SUPPORTING ACTOR

1. Mahershala Ali – GREEN BOOK (BFCA, GG)
2. Adam Driver – BLACKkKLANSMAN
3. Sam Elliott – A STAR IS BORN
4. Richard E. Grant – CAN YOU EVER FORGIVE ME?
5. Sam Rockwell – VICE

BAFTA – British Film Academy Awards
BFCA – Broadcast Film Critics Association (Critics Choice)
GG – Golden Globe
SAG – Screen Actors Guild
Spirit – Independent Spirit Awards

ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

1. BLACKkKLANSMAN – Charlie Wachtel, David Rabinowitz, Kevin Willmott, Spike Lee
2. IF BEALE STREET COULD TALK – Barry Jenkins (BFCA)
3. CAN YOU EVER FORGIVE ME? – Nicole Holofcener and Jeff Whitty
4. THE BALLAD OF BUSTER SCRUGGS – Joel Coen, Ethan Coen
5. A STAR IS BORN – Eric Roth, Bradley Cooper, Will Fetters

BAFTA – British Film Academy Awards
BFCA – Broadcast Film Critics Association (Critics Choice)
GG – Golden Globe
Spirit – Independent Spirit Awards
USC – USC Scripter Award
WGA – Writers Guild of America

ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

1. THE FAVOURITE – Deborah Davis, Tony McNamara
2. ROMA – Alfonso Cuarón
3. FIRST REFORMED – Paul Schrader (BFCA)
4. VICE – Adam McKay
5. GREEN BOOK – Nick Vallelonga, Brian Currie, Peter Farrelly (GG)

BAFTA – British Film Academy Awards
BFCA – Broadcast Film Critics Association (Critics Choice)
GG – Golden Globe
Spirit – Independent Spirit Awards
WGA – Writers Guild of America

FILM EDITING

1. BLACKkKLANSMAN – Barry Alexander Brown
2. VICE – Hank Corwin
3. BOHEMIAN RHAPSODY – John Ottman
4. THE FAVOURITE – Yorgos Mavropsaridis
5. GREEN BOOK – Patrick J. Don Vito

ACE – American Cinema Editors
BAFTA – British Film Academy Awards

CINEMATOGRAPHY

1. ROMA – Alfonso Cuarón (BFCA)
2. COLD WAR – Łukasz Żal
3. A STAR IS BORN – Matthew Libatique
4. THE FAVOURITE – Robbie Ryan
5. NEVER LOOK AWAY – Caleb Deschanel

ASC – American Society of Cinematographers
BAFTA – British Film Academy Awards
BFCA – Broadcast Film Critics Association (Critics Choice)

PRODUCTION DESIGN

1. THE FAVOURITE – Fiona Crombie, Alice Felton
2. BLACK PANTHER – Hannah Beachler (BFCA)
3. ROMA – Eugenio Caballero, Bárbara Enrı́quez
4. FIRST MAN – Nathan Crowley, Kathy Lucas
5. MARY POPPINS RETURNS – John Myhre, Gordon Sim

ADG – Art Directors Guild
BAFTA – British Film Academy Awards
BFCA – Broadcast Film Critics Association (Critics Choice)

COSTUME DESIGN

1. THE FAVOURITE – Sandy Powell
2. BLACK PANTHER – Ruth E. Carter (BFCA)
3. MARY POPPINS RETURNS – Sandy Powell
4. MARY QUEEN OF SCOTS – Alexandra Byrne
5. THE BALLAD OF BUSTER SCRUGGS – Mary Zophres

BAFTA – British Film Academy Awards
BFCA – Broadcast Film Critics Association (Critics Choice)
CDG – Costume Designers Guild

ORIGINAL SCORE

1. IF BEALE STREET COULD TALK – Nicholas Britell
2. BLACKkKLANSMAN – Terence Blanchard
3. BLACK PANTHER – Ludwig Goransson
4. MARY POPPINS RETURNS – Marc Shaiman
5. ISLE OF DOGS – Alexandre Desplat

BAFTA – British Film Academy Awards

ORIGINAL SONG

1. A STAR IS BORN “Shallow” by Lady Gaga, Mark Ronson, Anthony Rossomando, Andrew Wyatt and Benjamin Rice (BFCA, GG)
2. BLACK PANTHER – “All The Stars” by Kendrick Lamar, SZA
3. MARY POPPINS RETURNS – “The Place Where Lost Things Go” by Marc Shaiman, Scott Wittman
4. THE BALLAD OF BUSTER SCRUGGS – “When A Cowboy Trades His Spurs For Wings” by David Rawlings and Gillian Welch
5. RBG – “I’ll Fight” by Diane Warren, Jennifer Hudson

BFCA – Broadcast Film Critics Association (Critics Choice)
GG – Golden Globes

SOUND EDITING

1. FIRST MAN – Ai-Ling Lee, Mildred Iatrou Morgan
2. BLACK PANTHER – Benjamin A. Burtt, Steve Boeddeker
3. ROMA – Sergio Diaz, Skip Lievsay
4. BOHEMIAN RHAPSODY – John Warhurst
5. A QUIET PLACE – Ethan Van der Ryn, Erik Aadahl

MPSE – Motion Picture Sound Editors

SOUND MIXING

1. BOHEMIAN RHAPSODY – Paul Massey, Tim Cavagin and John Casali
2. ROMA – Skip Lievsay, Craig Henighan and José Antonio García
3. FIRST MAN – Jon Taylor, Frank A. Montaño, Ai-Ling Lee and Mary H. Ellis
4. BLACK PANTHER – Steve Boeddeker, Brandon Proctor and Peter Devlin
5. A STAR IS BORN – Tom Ozanich, Dean Zupancic, Jason Ruder and Steve Morrow

BAFTA – British Film Academy Awards
CAS – Cinema Audio Society

MAKEUP & HAIRSTYLING

1. VICE – Greg Cannom, Kate Biscoe and Patricia DeHaney (BFCA)
2. BORDER – Göran Lundström and Pamela Goldammer
3. MARY QUEEN OF SCOTS – Jenny Shircore, Marc Pilcher and Jessica Brooks

BAFTA – British Film Academy Awards
BFCA – Broadcast Film Critics Association (Critics Choice)
MUAH – Makeup and Hairstyling Guild

VISUAL EFFECTS

1. AVENGERS: INFINITY WAR – Dan DeLeeuw, Kelly Port, Russell Earl and Dan Sudick
2. FIRST MAN – Paul Lambert, Ian Hunter, Tristan Myles and J.D. Schwalm
3. SOLO: A STAR WARS STORY – Rob Bredow, Patrick Tubach, Neal Scanlan and Dominic Tuohy
4. CHRISTOPHER ROBIN – Christopher Lawrence, Michael Eames, Theo Jones and Chris Corbould
5. READY PLAYER ONE – Roger Guyett, Grady Cofer, Matthew E. Butler and David Shirk

BAFTA – British Film Academy Awards
VES – Visual Effects Society

ANIMATED FEATURE

1. SPIDER-MAN: INTO THE SPIDER-VERSE – Bob Persichetti, Peter Ramsey, Rodney Rothman (BFCA, GG)
2. INCREDIBLES 2 – Brad Bird
3. ISLE OF DOGS – Wes Anderson
4. RALPH BREAKS THE INTERNET – Rich Moore, Phil Johnston
5. MIRAI – Mamoru Hosoda

Annie – International Animated Film Association
BAFTA – British Film Academy Awards
BFCA – Broadcast Film Critics Association (Critics Choice)
GG – Golden Globes

DOCUMENTARY FEATURE

1. RBG – Betsy West, Julie Cohen
2. FREE SOLO – Jimmy Chin, Elizabeth Chai Vasarhelyi
3. MINDING THE GAP – Bing Liu
4. HALE COUNTY THIS MORNING, THIS EVENING – RaMell Ross (CEH)
5. OF FATHERS AND SONS – Talal Derki

BAFTA – British Film Academy Awards
CEH – Cinema Eye Honors
DGA – Directors Guild of America
IDA – Independent Documentary Association
Spirit – Independent Spirit Awards

FOREIGN LANGUAGE FILM

1. ROMA – Mexico (BFCA, GG)
2. COLD WAR – Poland
3. SHOPLIFTERS – Japan
4. NEVER LOOK AWAY – GErmany
5. CAPERNAUM – Lebanon

BAFTA – British Film Academy Awards
BFCA – Broadcast Film Critics Association (Critics Choice)
GG – Golden Globes

ANIMATED SHORT

1. BAO – Domee Shi
2. ANIMAL BEHAVIOUR – Alison Snowden, David Fine
3. LATE AFTERNOON – Louise Bagnall
4. ONE SMALL STEP – Andrew Chesworth, Bobby Pontillas
5. WEEKENDS – Trevor Jimenez

DOCUMENTARY SHORT

1. END GAME – Rob Epstein, Jeffrey Friedman
2. PERIOD. END OF SENTENCE. – Rayka Zehtabchi
3. LIFEBOAT – Skye Fitzgerald
4. A NIGHT IN THE GARDEN – Marshall Curry
5. BLACK SHEEP – Ed Perkins

LIVE-ACTION SHORT

1. MARGUERITE – Marianne Farley
2. FAUVE – Jeremy Comte
3. DETAINMENT – Vincent Lambe
4. MOTHER – Rodrigo Sorogoyen
5. SKIN – Guy Nattiv