Frontrunner Friday Oscar Predictions (1/21/22): The calm before the storm

We have the Golden Globe winners, BAFTA longlists and Screen Actors Guild Awards nominations under our belts as we start to drift away from critics’ season (which isn’t quite over yet) and enter the next phase in the Oscar race, the industry. 

While the only industry nominations we got this week were the Set Decorators Society of America (SDSA), Visual Effects Society (VES) and the USC Scripter, the latter which highlighted their aversion to musicals, we still have a lot to chew on. At least I do as several races continue to be head-scratchers will so many different options and scenarios.

USC Scripter gave us Dune, The Lost Daughter, Passing, The Power of the Dog and The Tragedy of Macbeth as nominees. The group does not recognize remakes as adaptations (hence, no CODA) and doesn’t often connect the ‘book of a musical’ (sorry, West Side Story) the same way it does with an adaptation of a novel or even of a Shakespeare play.

The Visual Effects Society locked in Shang-Chi as the only film so far to earn Critics’ Choice, Annie and VES nominations, where Dune, Godzilla vs. Kong, The Matrix Resurrections, No Time to Die and Spider-Man: No Way Home earned nominations for the top award. Other Oscar-shortlisted films Black Widow and Eternals made the cut in other VES categories. But it’s the placement of No Time to Die in the main category, plus its CCA and BAFTA longlist mention that we should be paying attention to.

Best Actress continues to be the most difficult. Is there a rise of Jennifer Hudson (Respect) and a fall of Kristen Stewart (Spencer) that’s louder than it seems or is it just trading one biopic for another? Maybe it’s Jessica Chastain (The Eyes of Tammy Faye) that’s vulnerable. The only safe spots right now are Nicole Kidman (Being the Ricardos), Olivia Colman (The Lost Daughter) and probably Lady Gaga (House of Gucci) after that SAG Cast nomination and potential Best Picture nom. Everything and everyone else is fair game. This week, Hudson is in and Chastain is out. Especially if the original song from Respect gets in and keeps the streak going of singer/actor nominations for both in the same year for the same film that started with Mary J. Blige in 2017 keeps going.

What about the curious case of Penélope Cruz in Parallel Mothers? The former Oscar winner should have been a lock for every precursor yet she’s missed every one. She’s not simply not getting BAFTA-nominated, she didn’t even make the longlist of 15 names. Can she bounce back on the strength of her LAFCA and NSFC wins and AACTA nomination (a very stealth Oscar precursor) and displace – or take her rightful place – in the top 5?

Next week is when things really kick into gear with the Art Directors Guild (ADG) and Motion Pictures Sound Editors (MPSE) announcing on Monday, American Society of Cinematographers (ASC) and Cinema Audio Society (CAS) on Tuesday the 25th, Costume Designers Guild on Wednesday the 26th and then the big one: American Cinema Editors (ACE), Directors Guild of America (DGA), Producers Guild of America (PGA) and Writers Guild of America (WGA) on Thursday the 27th, all coinciding with the first day of Oscar nomination voting.

Here are my Frontrunner Friday Oscar predictions in all 23 categories for January 21, 2022.

BEST PICTURE

1. Belfast (Focus Features) – GG, CCA, SAG, BAFTA longlist  
2. The Power of the Dog (Netflix) – GG, CCA, BAFTA longlist  
3. Dune (Warner Bros/HBO Max) – GG, CCA, BAFTA longlist  
4. West Side Story (20th Century Studios) – GG, CCA, BAFTA longlist  
5. King Richard (Warner Bros/HBO Max) – GG, CCA, SAG, BAFTA longlist  
6. Licorice Pizza (MGM/UAR) – GG, CCA, BAFTA longlist  
7. Don’t Look Up (Netflix) – GG, CCA, SAG, BAFTA longlist  
8. CODA (Apple Original Films) – GG, CCA, SAG, BAFTA longlist   
9. tick, tick…BOOM! (Netflix) – GG, CCA, BAFTA longlist  
10. House of Gucci (MGM/UAR) – SAG, BAFTA longlist    

BEST DIRECTOR

1. Jane Campion – The Power of the Dog (Netflix) – GG, CCA, BAFTA longlist   
2. Kenneth Branagh – Belfast (Focus Features) – GG, CCA, BAFTA longlist   
3. Denis Villeneuve – Dune (Warner Bros/HBO Max) – GG, CCA, BAFTA longlist  
4. Steven Spielberg – West Side Story (20th Century Studios) – GG, CCA, BAFTA longlist   
5. Ryusuke Hamaguchi – Drive My Car (Sideshow/Janus Films) – BAFTA longlist  

BEST ACTOR

1. Will Smith – King Richard (Warner Bros/HBO Max) – GG, CCA, SAG, BAFTA longlist  
2. Benedict Cumberbatch – The Power of the Dog (Netflix) – GG, CCA, SAG, BAFTA longlist  
3. Andrew Garfield – tick, tick…BOOM! (Netflix) – GG, CCA, SAG, BAFTA longlist  
4. Denzel Washington – The Tragedy of Macbeth (A24/Apple Original Films) – GG, CCA, SAG, BAFTA longlist 
5. Peter Dinklage – Cyrano (MGM/UAR) – GG, CCA, BAFTA longlist 

BEST ACTRESS

1. Nicole Kidman – Being the Ricardos (Amazon Studios) – GG, CCA, SAG, BAFTA longlist 
2. Olivia Colman – The Lost Daughter (Netflix) – GG, CCA, SAG, BAFTA longlist 
3. Lady Gaga – House of Gucci (MGM/UAR) – GG, CCA, SAG, BAFTA longlist 
4. Kristen Stewart – Spencer (NEON) – GG, CCA, BAFTA longlist 
5. Jennifer Hudson – Respect (MGM/UAR) – SAG, BAFTA longlist

SUPPORTING ACTOR

1. Kodi Smit-McPhee – The Power of the Dog (Netflix) – GG, CCA, SAG, BAFTA longlist  
2. Ciarán Hinds – Belfast (Focus Features) – GG, CCA, SAG, BAFTA longlist  
3. Troy Kotsur – CODA (Apple Original Films) – GG, CCA, SAG, BAFTA longlist  
4. Bradley Cooper – Licorice Pizza (MGM/UAR) – SAG, BAFTA longlist
5. Jesse Plemons – The Power of the Dog (Netflix) – BAFTA longlist

SUPPORTING ACTRESS

1. Ariana DeBose – West Side Story (20th Century Studios) – GG, CCA, SAG, BAFTA longlist   
2. Caitríona Balfe – Belfast (Focus Features) – GG, CCA, SAG, BAFTA longlist 
3. Aunjanue Ellis – King Richard (Warner Bros/HBO Max) – GG, CCA, BAFTA longlist 
4. Kirsten Dunst – The Power of the Dog (Netflix) – GG, CCA, SAG, BAFTA longlist  
5. Ruth Negga – Passing (Netflix) – GG, SAG, BAFTA longlist 

ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

1. The Power of the Dog – Jane Campion (Netflix) – GG, CCA, BAFTA longlist, USC  
2. The Lost Daughter – Maggie Gyllenhaal (Netflix) – CCA, BAFTA longlist, USC  
3. CODA – Siân Heder (Apple Original Films) – CCA, BAFTA longlist  
4. Drive My Car – Ryusuke Hamaguchi, Takamasa Oe (Sideshow/Janus Films) – BAFTA longlist   
5. West Side Story – Tony Kushner (20th Century Studios) – CCA, BAFTA longlist  

ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

1. Belfast – Kenneth Branagh (Focus Features) – GG, CCA, BAFTA longlist  
2. Licorice Pizza – Paul Thomas Anderson (MGM/UAR) – GG, CCA, BAFTA longlist  
3. Don’t Look Up – Adam McKay, David Sirota (Netflix) – GG, CCA, BAFTA longlist  
4. King Richard – Zach Baylin (Warner Bros/ HBO Max) – CCA, BAFTA longlist  
5. Being the Ricardos – Aaron Sorkin (Amazon Studios) – GG, BAFTA longlist  

FILM EDITING

1. Dune (Warner Bros/HBO Max) – CCA, BAFTA longlist  
2. Belfast (Focus Features) – CCA, BAFTA longlist  
3. The Power of the Dog (Netflix) – CCA, BAFTA longlist  
4. West Side Story (20th Century Studios) – CCA, BAFTA longlist  
5. Don’t Look Up (Netflix) – BAFTA longlist  

CINEMATOGRAPHY

1. The Power of the Dog (Netflix) – CCA, BAFTA longlist  
2. Dune (Warner Bros/HBO Max) – CCA, BAFTA longlist  
3. The Tragedy of Macbeth (A24/Apple Original Films) – CCA, BAFTA longlist  
4. Belfast (Focus Features) – CCA, BAFTA longlist  
5. West Side Story (20th Century Studios) – CCA, BAFTA longlist  

PRODUCTION DESIGN

1. Nightmare Alley (Searchlight Pictures) – CCA, BAFTA longlist, SDSA
2. Dune (Warner Bros/HBO Max) – CCA, BAFTA longlist, SDSA   
3. West Side Story (20th Century Studios) – CCA, BAFTA longlist, SDSA 
4. The Tragedy of Macbeth (A24/Apple Original Films) – BAFTA longlist, SDSA  
5. Belfast (Focus Features) – CCA, BAFTA longlist   

COSTUME DESIGN

1. Dune (Warner Bros/HBO Max) – CCA, BAFTA longlist   
2. Nightmare Alley (Searchlight Pictures) – CCA, BAFTA longlist  
3. Cruella (Walt Disney) – CCA, BAFTA longlist   
4. West Side Story (20th Century Studios) – CCA, BAFTA longlist   
5. House of Gucci (MGM/UAR) – CCA, BAFTA longlist  

MAKEUP AND HAIRSTYLING

1. Dune (Warner Bros/HBO Max) – CCA, BAFTA longlist   
2. The Eyes of Tammy Faye (Searchlight Pictures) – CCA, BAFTA longlist   
3. Cruella (Walt Disney) – CCA, BAFTA longlist   
4. House of Gucci (MGM/UAR) – CCA, BAFTA longlist   
5. Coming 2 America (Amazon Studios) – BAFTA longlist   

ORIGINAL SCORE

1. Dune (Warner Bros/HBO Max) – GG, CCA, SCL, BAFTA longlist   
2. The Power of the Dog (Netflix) – GG, CCA, HMMA, SCL, BAFTA longlist  
3. Encanto (Walt Disney) – GG, SCL
4. Don’t Look Up (Netflix) – CCA, HMMA, SCL, BAFTA longlist 
5. The French Dispatch (Searchlight Pictures) – GG, HMMA, SCL, BAFTA longlist

ORIGINAL SONG

1. “No Time to Die” from No Time to Die (MGM/UAR) – GG, CCA, HMMA, SCL 
2. “Be Alive” from “King Richard (Warner Bros/HBO Max) – GG, CCA 
3. “Dos Oruguitas” from Encanto (Walt Disney) – GG, CCA 
4. “Here I Am (Singing My Way Home)” from Respect (MGM/UAR) – GG, SCL 
5. “Just Look Up” from Don’t Look Up (Netflix) – CCA, HMMA, SCL

SOUND

1. Dune (Warner Bros/HBO Max) – BAFTA longlist   
2. No Time to Die (MGM/UAR) – BAFTA longlist   
3. West Side Story (20th Century Studios) – BAFTA longlist  
4. Last Night in Soho (Focus Features) – BAFTA longlist 
5. The Power of the Dog (Netflix) – BAFTA longlist  

VISUAL EFFECTS

1. Dune (Warner Bros/HBO Max) – CCA, BAFTA longlist, VES   
2. Shang-Chi and the Legend of the Ten Rings (Walt Disney/Marvel Studios) – CCA, Annie, BAFTA longlist, VES  
3. Godzilla vs. Kong (Warner Bros/HBO Max) – VES 
4. No Time to Die (MGM/UAR) – CCA, BAFTA longlist, VES
5. Spider-Man: No Way Home (Sony Pictures/Marvel Studios) – VES  

ANIMATED FEATURE

1. Encanto (Walt Disney) – GG, CCA, Annie, BAFTA longlist  
2. Flee (NEON) – GG, CCA, Annie (Indie), EFA, BAFTA longlist  
3. The Mitchells vs the Machines (Netflix) – CCA, Annie, BAFTA longlist  
4. Raya and the Last Dragon (Walt Disney) – GG, CCA, Annie, BAFTA longlist  
5. Luca (Walt Disney/Pixar) – GG, CCA, Annie, BAFTA longlist  

DOCUMENTARY FEATURE

1. Flee (NEON) – CEH, CCA, DOC NYC, Gotham, IDA, EFA, PGA, BAFTA longlist  
2. The Rescue (NatGeo) – CEH, CCA, DOC NYC, PGA, BAFTA longlist   
3. Ascension (MTV Documentary Films) – CEH, CCA, DOC NYC, Gotham, IDA, PGA 
4. Faya Dayi (Janus Films) – CEH, CCA, DOC NYC, Gotham, IDA 
5. Procession (Netflix) – CCA, DOC NYC

INTERNATIONAL FEATURE FILM

1. The Hand of God (Italy) – EFA, GG, CCA, BAFTA longlist    
2. Drive My Car (Japan) – GG, CCA, BAFTA longlist  
3. A Hero (Iran) – GG, CCA, BAFTA longlist   
4. Flee (Denmark) – CCA, BAFTA longlist   
5. Prayers for the Stolen (Mexico) 

ANIMATED SHORT FILM

1. Robin Robin (Netflix) – BAFTA longlist  
2. Us Again (Walt Disney)
3. The Musician (MTV Entertainment)
4. Namoo (Baobab Studios)
5. Step Into the River (The New Yorker) 

DOCUMENTARY SHORT SUBJECT

1. Audible (Netflix)
2. Camp Confidential: America’s Secret Nazis (Netflix)
3. Sophie and the Baron (Disney Original Documentary)
4. The Queen of Basketball (The New York Times)
5. Terror Contagion (NEON) 

LIVE ACTION SHORT

1. The Long Goodbye (WePresent)
2. Ala Kachuu – Take and Run (Salaud Morisset) 
3. Under the Heavens (The New Yorker) 
4. When the Sun Sets (HBO) 
5. Censor of Dreams (Salaud Morisset)