Frontrunner Friday Oscar predictions: A Field day

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Still a deadly quiet week in the awards landscape with a few late straggler critics’ groups announcing (London and Black Reel) but no guilds or industry just yet as the Santa Barbara International Film Festival just kicked off yesterday, one of the big awards pit stops of the season before things finally kick into gear.

While we’re simmering, I was wondering…is Todd Field able to upset The Daniels or Martin McDonagh in Best Director? It might not seem so at first glance but let’s consider a few things; the last five DGA winners also won one of the trifecta critics’ awards (LAFCA/NYFCC/NSFC) and only Field did that of the five Oscar nominees we have. Then there’s this; with the exception of Bong Joon-ho’s Parasite, every director winner’s film since 2007 has also been nominated in cinematography and again, only Field’s TÁR fits that bill. The path for Field in Best Director isn’t an easy one though; while he’s secured crucial BAFTA and DGA nominations, missing the Globe might have an historical impact. Excluding years of winners-only announcements, only twice ever has the Best Director Oscar winner not been Globe-nominated first (George Roy Hill for 1973’s The Sting, which also won Best Picture, and Roman Polanski for 2002’s The Pianist). While the reality of the impact of Globe history isn’t something I’d necessarily hang my hat on, it is a piece of the puzzle that adds and complicates this pre-DGA/BAFTA guessing game just a bit. But TÁR is in a unique place among Best Picture nominees in terms of its six-nomination breakdown as the only film with directing, acting, writing, editing and cinematography nods under its belt. Not even Everything Everywhere All At Once or The Banshees of Inisherin, with their respective 11 and 9 nominations, can say that.

We’ll have the Make-Up Artists and Hair Stylists (MUAH) guild awards tomorrow night then next week the Set Decorators Society of America (SDSA), The Society of Composers and Lyricists (SCL) and Visual Effects Society (VES) before the big guns next weekend: DGA and BAFTA.

Here are my Frontrunner Friday Oscar predictions for the 95th Academy Awards for Friday, February 10, 2023.

BEST PICTURE

1. Everything Everywhere All at Once (A24) – BAFTA, CCA, GG, PGA, SAG Daniel Kwan, Daniel Scheinert and Jonathan Wang, Producers

2. The Banshees of Inisherin (Searchlight Pictures) – BAFTA, CCA, GG, PGA, SAG Graham Broadbent, Pete Czernin and Martin McDonagh, Producers

3. TÁR (Focus Features) – BAFTA, CCA, GG, PGA Todd Field, Alexandra Milchan and Scott Lambert, Producers

4. The Fabelmans (Universal Pictures) – CCA, GG, PGA, SAG Kristie Macosko Krieger, Steven Spielberg and Tony Kushner, Producers

5. Elvis (Warner Bros) – BAFTA, CCA, GG, PGA Baz Luhrmann, Catherine Martin, Gail Berman, Patrick McCormick and Schuyler Weiss, Producers

6. All Quiet on the Western Front (Netflix) – BAFTA Malte Grunert, Producer

7. Triangle of Sadness (NEON) – GG Erik Hemmendorff and Philippe Bober, Producers

8. Top Gun: Maverick (Paramount Pictures) – CCA, GG, PGA Tom Cruise, Christopher McQuarrie, David Ellison and Jerry Bruckheimer, Producers

9. Women Talking (United Artists Releasing/Orion Pictures) – SAG Dede Gardner, Jeremy Kleiner and Frances McDormand, Producers

10. Avatar: The Way of Water (20th Century Studios) – CCA, GG, PGA James Cameron and Jon Landau, Producers

DIRECTING

1. Daniel Kwan and Daniel Scheinert – Everything Everywhere All At Once (A24) – BAFTA, CCA, GG, DGA

2. Martin McDonagh – The Banshees of Inisherin (Searchlight Pictures) – BAFTA, CCA, GG, DGA

3. Todd Field – TÁR (Focus Features) – BAFTA, CCA, DGA

4. Steven Spielberg – The Fabelmans (Universal Pictures) – CCA, GG, DGA

5. Ruben Östlund – Triangle of Sadness (NEON)

ACTOR IN A LEADING ROLE

1. Brendan Fraser – The Whale (A24) – BAFTA, CCA, GG, SAG

2. Austin Butler – Elvis (Warner Bros) – BAFTA, CCA, GG, SAG

3. Colin Farrell – The Banshees of Inisherin (Searchlight Pictures) – BAFTA, CCA, GG, SAG

4. Bill Nighy – Living (Sony Pictures Classics) – BAFTA, CCA, GG, SAG

5. Paul Mescal – Aftersun (A24) – BAFTA, CCA

ACTRESS IN A LEADING ROLE

1. Cate Blanchett – TÁR (Focus Features) – BAFTA, CCA, GG, SAG

2. Michelle Yeoh – Everything Everywhere All At Once (A24) – BAFTA, CCA, GG, SAG

3. Andrea Riseborough – To Leslie (Momentum Pictures)

4. Michelle Williams – The Fabelmans (Universal Pictures) – CCA, GG

5. Ana de Armas – Blonde (Netflix) – BAFTA, GG, SAG

ACTOR IN A SUPPORTING ROLE

1. Ke Huy Quan – Everything Everywhere All At Once (A24) – BAFTA, CCA, GG, SAG

2. Brendan Gleeson – The Banshees of Inisherin (Searchlight Pictures) – BAFTA, CCA, GG, SAG

3. Barry Keoghan – The Banshees of Inisherin (Searchlight Pictures) – BAFTA, CCA, GG, SAG

4. Judd Hirsch – The Fabelmans (Universal Pictures) – CCA

5. Brian Tyree Henry – Causeway (Apple Original Films) – CCA

ACTRESS IN A SUPPORTING ROLE

1. Angela Bassett – Black Panther: Wakanda Forever (Walt Disney/Marvel) – BAFTA, CCA, GG, SAG

2. Kerry Condon – The Banshees of Inisherin (Searchlight Pictures) – BAFTA, CCA, GG, SAG

3. Hong Chau – The Whale (A24) – BAFTA, SAG

4. Stephanie Hsu – Everything Everywhere All At Once (A24) – CCA, SAG

5. Jamie Lee Curtis – Everything Everywhere All At Once (A24) – CCA, BAFTA, GG, SAG

ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

1. Women Talking (UAR/Orion) – CCA, GG, USC, WGA Screenplay by Sarah Polley

2. All Quiet on the Western Front (Netflix) – BAFTA Screenplay by Edward Berger, Lesley Paterson & Ian Stokell

3. Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery (Netflix) – CCA, WGA Written by Rian Johnson

4. Living (Sony Pictures Classics) – BAFTA, CCA, USC Written by Kazuo Ishiguro

5. Top Gun: Maverick (Paramount Pictures) – WGA Screenplay by Ehren Kruger and Eric Warren Singer and Christopher McQuarrie; Story by Peter Craig and Justin Marks

ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

1. The Banshees of Inisherin (Searchlight Pictures) – BAFTA, CCA, GG Written by Martin McDonagh

2. Everything Everywhere All At Once (A24) – BAFTA, CCA, GG, WGA Written by Daniel Kwan & Daniel Scheinert

3. TÁR (Focus Features) – BAFTA, CCA, GG, WGA Written by Todd Field

4. The Fabelmans (Universal Pictures) – BAFTA, CCA, GG, WGA Written by Steven Spielberg & Tony Kushner

5. Triangle of Sadness (NEON) – BAFTA Written by Ruben Östlund

FILM EDITING

1. Top Gun: Maverick (Paramount Pictures) – ACE, BAFTA, CCA Eddie Hamilton

2. Everything Everywhere All At Once (A24) – ACE, BAFTA, CCA Paul Rogers

3. Elvis (Warner Bros) – ACE, BAFTA, CCA Matt Villa and Jonathan Redmond

4. The Banshees of Inisherin (Searchlight Pictures) – ACE, BAFTA Mikkel E.G. Nielsen

5. TÁR (Focus Features) – ACE, CCA Monika Willi

CINEMATOGRAPHY

1. All Quiet on the Western Front (Netflix) – BAFTA James Friend

2. Elvis (Warner Bros) – ASC, BAFTA Mandy Walker

3. TÁR (Focus Features) – CCA Florian Hoffmeister

4. Empire of Light (Searchlight Pictures) – ASC, BAFTA, CCA Roger Deakins

5. Bardo, False Chronicle of a Handful of Truths (Netflix) – ASC Darius Khondji

PRODUCTION DESIGN

1. Elvis (Warner Bros) – ADG, BAFTA, CCA, SDSA Production Design: Catherine Martin and Karen Murphy; Set Decoration: Bev Dunn

2. Babylon (Paramount Pictures) – ADG, BAFTA, CCA, SDSA Production Design: Florencia Martin; Set Decoration: Anthony Carlino

3. All Quiet on the Western Front (Netflix) – ADG, BAFTA Production Design: Christian M. Goldbeck; Set Decoration: Ernestine Hipper

4. The Fabelmans (Universal Pictures) – ADG, CCA, SDSA Production Design: Rick Carter; Set Decoration: Karen O’Hara

5. Avatar: The Way of Water (20th Century Studios) – ADG, CCA, SDSA Production Design: Dylan Cole and Ben Procter; Set Decoration: Vanessa Cole

COSTUME DESIGN

1. Elvis (Warner Bros) – BAFTA, CDG, CCA Catherine Martin

2. Black Panther: Wakanda Forever (Walt Disney/Marvel Studios) – BAFTA longlist, CDG, CCA Ruth E. Carter

3. Babylon (Paramount Pictures) – BAFTA, CDG, CCA Mary Zophres

4. Mrs. Harris Goes to Paris (Focus Features) – BAFTA, CDG Jenny Beavan

5. Everything Everywhere All At Once (A24) – CDG, CCA Shirley Kurata

ORIGINAL SCORE

1. Babylon (Paramount Pictures) – BAFTA, GG, CCA Justin Hurwitz

2. All Quiet on the Western Front (Netflix) – BAFTA Volker Bertelmann

3. The Fabelmans (Universal Pictures) – GG, CCA, HMMA John Williams

4. The Banshees of Inisherin (Searchlight Pictures) – BAFTA, GG, HMMA Carter Burwell

5. Everything Everywhere All At Once (A24) – BAFTA, HMMA Son Lux

ORIGINAL SONG

1. “Naatu Naatu” from RRR – CCA, GG Music by M.M. Keeravaani; Lyric by Chandrabose

2. “Hold My Hand” from Top Gun: Maverick – CCA, GG, HMMA Music and Lyric by Lady Gaga and BloodPop

3. “This Is a Life” from Everything Everywhere All at Once – HMMA

4. “Lift Me Up” from Black Panther: Wakanda Forever­ – CCA, GG, HMMA Music by Tems, Rihanna, Ryan Coogler and Ludwig Goransson; Lyric by Tems and Ryan Coogler

5. “Applause” from Tell It Like a Woman­ – HMMA Music and Lyric by Diane Warren

SOUND

1. Top Gun: Maverick (Paramount Pictures) – BAFTA, CAS, MPSE (2x) Mark Weingarten, James H. Mather, Al Nelson, Chris Burdon and Mark Taylor

2. All Quiet on the Western Front (Netflix) – BAFTA, CAS, MPSE Viktor Prášil, Frank Kruse, Markus Stemler, Lars Ginzel and Stefan Korte

3. Elvis (Warner Bros) – BAFTA, CAS, MPSE (2x) David Lee, Wayne Pashley, Andy Nelson and Michael Keller

4. Avatar: The Way of Water (20th Century Studios) – BAFTA, CAS, MPSE Julian Howarth, Gwendolyn Yates Whittle, Dick Bernstein, Christopher Boyes, Gary Summers and Michael Hedges

5. The Batman (Warner Bros) – CAS, MPSE (2x) Stuart Wilson, William Files, Douglas Murray and Andy Nelson

MAKEUP AND HAIRSTYLING

1. The Whale (A24) – BAFTA, CCA, MUAH Adrien Morot, Judy Chin and Anne Marie Bradley

2. The Batman (Warner Bros) – BAFTA, CCA, MUAH (3x) Naomi Donne, Mike Marino and Mike Fontaine

3. Elvis (Warner Bros) – BAFTA, CCA, MUAH (3x) Mark Coulier, Jason Baird and Aldo Signoretti

4. Black Panther: Wakanda Forever (Walt Disney/Marvel Studios) – CCA, MUAH (2x) Camille Friend and Joel Harlow

5. All Quiet on the Western Front (Netflix) – BAFTA Heike Merker and Linda Eisenhamerová

VISUAL EFFECTS

1. Avatar: The Way of Water (20th Century Studios) – BAFTA, CCA, VES Joe Letteri, Richard Baneham, Eric Saindon and Daniel Barrett

2. Top Gun: Maverick (Paramount Pictures) – BAFTA, CCA, VES Ryan Tudhope, Seth Hill, Bryan Litson and Scott R. Fisher

3. The Batman (Warner Bros) – BAFTA, CCA, VES Dan Lemmon, Russell Earl, Anders Langlands and Dominic Tuohy

4. All Quiet on the Western Front (Netflix) – BAFTA Frank Petzold, Viktor Müller, Markus Frank and Kamil Jafar

5. Black Panther: Wakanda Forever (Walt Disney/Marvel Studios) – CCA Geoffrey Baumann, Craig Hammack, R. Christopher White and Dan Sudick

ANIMATED FEATURE

1. Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio (Netflix) – Annie, BAFTA, CCA, GG, PGA Guillermo del Toro, Mark Gustafson, Gary Ungar and Alex Bulkley

2. Marcel the Shell with Shoes On (A24) – Annie, BAFTA, CCA, GG, PGA Dean Fleischer Camp, Elisabeth Holm, Andrew Goldman, Caroline Kaplan and Paul Mezey

3. Puss in Boots: The Last Wish (DreamWorks/Universal) – Annie, BAFTA, CCA, GG, PGA Joel Crawford and Mark Swift

4. Turning Red (Walt Disney/Pixar) – Annie, BAFTA, CCA, GG, PGA Domee Shi and Lindsey Collins

5. The Sea Beast (Netflix) – Annie Chris Williams and Jed Schlanger

DOCUMENTARY FEATURE

1. Fire of Love (NatGeo/NEON)– BAFTA, CCA, CEH, IDA, PGA Sara Dosa, Shane Boris and Ina Fichman

2. Navalny (CNN) – BAFTA, CCA, CEH, IDA, PGA Daniel Roher, Odessa Rae, Diane Becker, Melanie Miller and Shane Boris

3. All the Beauty and the Bloodshed (NEON) – BAFTA, CEH, IDA Laura Poitras, Howard Gertler, John Lyons, Nan Goldin and Yoni Golijov

4. All That Breathes – BAFTA, CEH, IDA, PGA Shaunak Sen, Aman Mann and Teddy Leifer

5. A House Made of Splinters Simon Lereng Wilmont and Monica Hellström

INTERNATIONAL FEATURE FILM

1. Germany, All Quiet on the Western Front (Netflix) – BAFTA, CCA, GG

2. Belgium, Close (A24) – CCA, GG

3. Argentina, Argentina, 1985 (Amazon Studios) – BAFTA, CCA, GG

4. Ireland, The Quiet Girl (Super/NEON) – BAFTA

5. Poland, EO (JanusFilms/Sideshow)

ANIMATED SHORT FILM

1. The Boy, the Mole, the Fox and the Horse Charlie Mackesy and Matthew Freud

2. An Ostrich Told Me the World Is Fake and I Think I Believe It Lachlan Pendragon

3. Ice Merchants João Gonzalez and Bruno Caetano

4. My Year of Dicks Sara Gunnarsdóttir and Pamela Ribon

5. The Flying Sailor Amanda Forbis and Wendy Tilby

DOCUMENTARY SHORT FILM

1. Stranger at the Gate Joshua Seftel and Conall Jones

2. How Do You Measure a Year? Jay Rosenblatt

3. Haulout Evgenia Arbugaeva and Maxim Arbugaev

4. The Martha Mitchell Effect Anne Alvergue and Beth Levison

5. The Elephant Whisperers Kartiki Gonsalves and Guneet Monga

LIVE ACTION SHORT FILM

1. Le Pupille Alice Rohrwacher and Alfonso Cuarón

2. Night Ride Eirik Tveiten and Gaute Lid Larssen

3. Ivalu Anders Walter and Rebecca Pruzan

4. An Irish Goodbye Tom Berkeley and Ross White

5. The Red Suitcase Cyrus Neshvad