Frontrunner Friday Oscar predictions: All quiet on the awards front

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Since the Oscar nominations were announced a week and a half ago, it’s been pretty subdued in the awards sphere with just the Writers Guild of America (WGA) and American Cinema Editors (ACE) as the season’s stragglers to reveal their noms.

The WGA, as we know with their strict guild rules, gave 3/5 crossover with both adapted and original screenplays. In adapted screenplay, the Oscar crossovers were Glass Onion, Top Gun: Maverick and Women Talking with Black Panther: Wakanda Forever and She Said earning WGA spots over Oscar nominees All Quiet on the Western Front and Living. Over in original we have Everything Everywhere All At Once, The Fabelmans and TÁR. The Banshees of Inisherin and Triangle of Sadness were not eligible there and the WGA nominated The Menu and Nope.

The American Cinema Editors, which splits their editing categories between dramas, comedies, animated and documentary features, found spots for all five Film Editing Oscar nominees: The Banshees of Inisherin, Elvis, Everything Everywhere All At Once, TÁR and Top Gun: Maverick. Speaking of Film Editing…

The Film Editing/Sound connection has been so strong this last decade and this season has one of the lowest crossover between the two in recent years. Only Elvis and Top Gun: Maverick are nominated in both categories, and, in one of the Oscar nomination morning’s biggest surprises, of those two only Elvis is also nominated for cinematography. It makes for a possible argument that if there is a dual win in those categories once again, that it’s the biopic of the legendary singer that prevails (shades of Bohemian Rhapsody? One shudders at the thought). The trouble is, it’s the combining of the sound categories two years ago into a single category that might throw that off just a bit. Are we headed for our first split since 2012 with Elvis and Top Gun: Maverick each winning one or will it look more like 2006 when Best Picture winner The Departed won Film Editing without a corresponding Sound nomination a la Everything Everywhere All At Once this year? It really could go many ways here but I think the 2019’s Ford v Ferrari winning Film Editing and Sound Editing (and being Best Picture-nominated) might be the best example we have for Top Gun: Maverick to take both, even in the face of the enormous amount of editing in EEAAO.

The other big thing that happened post-nominations of course was the aftermath of the Academy’s decision to investigate Andrea Riseborough’s Best Actress nomination for To Leslie. I go into detail about it and the AMPAS Board of Governors decision not to rescind her nomination here, but it’s hard not to think that, while it took far less support to get her the nomination compared to how many votes she’ll need to triumph, that she shouldn’t be taken seriously as a potential spoiler. With that, she moves up to #3 for me.

Here are my Frontrunner Friday Oscar predictions for the 95th Academy Awards for Friday, February 3, 2023.

BEST PICTURE

1. Everything Everywhere All at Once (A24) – BAFTA, CCA, GG, PGA, SAG Daniel Kwan, Daniel Scheinert and Jonathan Wang, Producers

2. The Banshees of Inisherin (Searchlight Pictures) – BAFTA, CCA, GG, PGA, SAG Graham Broadbent, Pete Czernin and Martin McDonagh, Producers

3. TÁR (Focus Features) – BAFTA, CCA, GG, PGA Todd Field, Alexandra Milchan and Scott Lambert, Producers

4. The Fabelmans (Universal Pictures) – CCA, GG, PGA, SAG Kristie Macosko Krieger, Steven Spielberg and Tony Kushner, Producers

5. Elvis (Warner Bros) – BAFTA, CCA, GG, PGA Baz Luhrmann, Catherine Martin, Gail Berman, Patrick McCormick and Schuyler Weiss, Producers

6. All Quiet on the Western Front (Netflix) – BAFTA Malte Grunert, Producer

7. Triangle of Sadness (NEON) – GG Erik Hemmendorff and Philippe Bober, Producers

8. Top Gun: Maverick (Paramount Pictures) – CCA, GG, PGA Tom Cruise, Christopher McQuarrie, David Ellison and Jerry Bruckheimer, Producers

9. Women Talking (United Artists Releasing/Orion Pictures) – SAG Dede Gardner, Jeremy Kleiner and Frances McDormand, Producers

10. Avatar: The Way of Water (20th Century Studios) – CCA, GG, PGA James Cameron and Jon Landau, Producers

DIRECTING

1. Daniel Kwan and Daniel Scheinert – Everything Everywhere All At Once (A24) – BAFTA, CCA, GG, DGA

2. Martin McDonagh – The Banshees of Inisherin (Searchlight Pictures) – BAFTA, CCA, GG, DGA

3. Steven Spielberg – The Fabelmans (Universal Pictures) – CCA, GG, DGA

4. Todd Field – TÁR (Focus Features) – BAFTA, CCA, DGA

5. Ruben Östlund – Triangle of Sadness (NEON)

ACTOR IN A LEADING ROLE

1. Brendan Fraser – The Whale (A24) – BAFTA, CCA, GG, SAG

2. Austin Butler – Elvis (Warner Bros) – BAFTA, CCA, GG, SAG

3. Colin Farrell – The Banshees of Inisherin (Searchlight Pictures) – BAFTA, CCA, GG, SAG

4. Bill Nighy – Living (Sony Pictures Classics) – BAFTA, CCA, GG, SAG

5. Paul Mescal – Aftersun (A24) – BAFTA, CCA

ACTRESS IN A LEADING ROLE

1. Cate Blanchett – TÁR (Focus Features) – BAFTA, CCA, GG, SAG

2. Michelle Yeoh – Everything Everywhere All At Once (A24) – BAFTA, CCA, GG, SAG

3. Andrea Riseborough – To Leslie (Momentum Pictures)

4. Michelle Williams – The Fabelmans (Universal Pictures) – CCA, GG

5. Ana de Armas – Blonde (Netflix) – BAFTA, GG, SAG

ACTOR IN A SUPPORTING ROLE

1. Ke Huy Quan – Everything Everywhere All At Once (A24) – BAFTA, CCA, GG, SAG

2. Brendan Gleeson – The Banshees of Inisherin (Searchlight Pictures) – BAFTA, CCA, GG, SAG

3. Barry Keoghan – The Banshees of Inisherin (Searchlight Pictures) – BAFTA, CCA, GG, SAG

4. Judd Hirsch – The Fabelmans (Universal Pictures) – CCA

5. Brian Tyree Henry – Causeway (Apple Original Films) – CCA

ACTRESS IN A SUPPORTING ROLE

1. Angela Bassett – Black Panther: Wakanda Forever (Walt Disney/Marvel) – BAFTA, CCA, GG, SAG

2. Kerry Condon – The Banshees of Inisherin (Searchlight Pictures) – BAFTA, CCA, GG, SAG

3. Hong Chau – The Whale (A24) – BAFTA, SAG

4. Stephanie Hsu – Everything Everywhere All At Once (A24) – CCA, SAG

5. Jamie Lee Curtis – Everything Everywhere All At Once (A24) – CCA, BAFTA, GG, SAG

ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

1. Women Talking (UAR/Orion) – CCA, GG, USC, WGA Screenplay by Sarah Polley

2. All Quiet on the Western Front (Netflix) – BAFTA Screenplay by Edward Berger, Lesley Paterson & Ian Stokell

3. Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery (Netflix) – CCA, WGA Written by Rian Johnson

4. Living (Sony Pictures Classics) – BAFTA, CCA, USC Written by Kazuo Ishiguro

5. Top Gun: Maverick (Paramount Pictures) – USC, WGA Screenplay by Ehren Kruger and Eric Warren Singer and Christopher McQuarrie; Story by Peter Craig and Justin Marks

ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

1. The Banshees of Inisherin (Searchlight Pictures) – BAFTA, CCA, GG Written by Martin McDonagh

2. Everything Everywhere All At Once (A24) – BAFTA, CCA, GG, WGA Written by Daniel Kwan & Daniel Scheinert

3. TÁR (Focus Features) – BAFTA, CCA, GG, WGA Written by Todd Field

4. The Fabelmans (Universal Pictures) – BAFTA, CCA, GG, WGA Written by Steven Spielberg & Tony Kushner

5. Triangle of Sadness (NEON) – BAFTA Written by Ruben Östlund

FILM EDITING

1. Top Gun: Maverick (Paramount Pictures) – ACE, BAFTA, CCA Eddie Hamilton

2. Everything Everywhere All At Once (A24) – ACE, BAFTA, CCA Paul Rogers

3. Elvis (Warner Bros) – ACE, BAFTA, CCA Matt Villa and Jonathan Redmond

4. The Banshees of Inisherin (Searchlight Pictures) – ACE, BAFTA Mikkel E.G. Nielsen

5. TÁR (Focus Features) – ACE, CCA Monika Willi

CINEMATOGRAPHY

1. All Quiet on the Western Front (Netflix) – BAFTA James Friend

2. Elvis (Warner Bros) – ASC, BAFTA Mandy Walker

3. TÁR (Focus Features) – CCA Florian Hoffmeister

4. Empire of Light (Searchlight Pictures) – ASC, BAFTA, CCA Roger Deakins

5. Bardo, False Chronicle of a Handful of Truths (Netflix) – ASC Darius Khondji

PRODUCTION DESIGN

1. Elvis (Warner Bros) – ADG, BAFTA, CCA, SDSA Production Design: Catherine Martin and Karen Murphy; Set Decoration: Bev Dunn

2. Babylon (Paramount Pictures) – ADG, BAFTA, CCA, SDSA Production Design: Florencia Martin; Set Decoration: Anthony Carlino

3. All Quiet on the Western Front (Netflix) – ADG, BAFTA Production Design: Christian M. Goldbeck; Set Decoration: Ernestine Hipper

4. The Fabelmans (Universal Pictures) – ADG, CCA, SDSA Production Design: Rick Carter; Set Decoration: Karen O’Hara

5. Avatar: The Way of Water (20th Century Studios) – ADG, CCA, SDSA Production Design: Dylan Cole and Ben Procter; Set Decoration: Vanessa Cole

COSTUME DESIGN

1. Elvis (Warner Bros) – BAFTA, CDG, CCA Catherine Martin

2. Black Panther: Wakanda Forever (Walt Disney/Marvel Studios) – BAFTA longlist, CDG, CCA Ruth E. Carter

3. Babylon (Paramount Pictures) – BAFTA, CDG, CCA Mary Zophres

4. Mrs. Harris Goes to Paris (Focus Features) – BAFTA, CDG Jenny Beavan

5. Everything Everywhere All At Once (A24) – CDG, CCA Shirley Kurata

ORIGINAL SCORE

1. Babylon (Paramount Pictures) – BAFTA, GG, CCA Justin Hurwitz

2. The Fabelmans (Universal Pictures) – GG, CCA, HMMA John Williams

3. All Quiet on the Western Front (Netflix) – BAFTA Volker Bertelmann

4. The Banshees of Inisherin (Searchlight Pictures) – BAFTA, GG, HMMA Carter Burwell

5. Everything Everywhere All At Once (A24) – BAFTA, HMMA Son Lux

ORIGINAL SONG

1. “Naatu Naatu” from RRR – CCA, GG Music by M.M. Keeravaani; Lyric by Chandrabose

2. “Hold My Hand” from Top Gun: Maverick – CCA, GG, HMMA Music and Lyric by Lady Gaga and BloodPop

3. “This Is a Life” from Everything Everywhere All at Once – HMMA

4. “Lift Me Up” from Black Panther: Wakanda Forever­ – CCA, GG, HMMA Music by Tems, Rihanna, Ryan Coogler and Ludwig Goransson; Lyric by Tems and Ryan Coogler

5. “Applause” from Tell It Like a Woman­ – HMMA Music and Lyric by Diane Warren

SOUND

1. Top Gun: Maverick (Paramount Pictures) – BAFTA, CAS, MPSE (2x) Mark Weingarten, James H. Mather, Al Nelson, Chris Burdon and Mark Taylor

2. All Quiet on the Western Front (Netflix) – BAFTA, CAS, MPSE Viktor Prášil, Frank Kruse, Markus Stemler, Lars Ginzel and Stefan Korte

3. Elvis (Warner Bros) – BAFTA, CAS, MPSE (2x) David Lee, Wayne Pashley, Andy Nelson and Michael Keller

4. Avatar: The Way of Water (20th Century Studios) – BAFTA, CAS, MPSE Julian Howarth, Gwendolyn Yates Whittle, Dick Bernstein, Christopher Boyes, Gary Summers and Michael Hedges

5. The Batman (Warner Bros) – CAS, MPSE (2x) Stuart Wilson, William Files, Douglas Murray and Andy Nelson

MAKEUP AND HAIRSTYLING

1. The Whale (A24) – BAFTA, CCA, MUAH Adrien Morot, Judy Chin and Anne Marie Bradley

2. The Batman (Warner Bros) – BAFTA, CCA, MUAH (3x) Naomi Donne, Mike Marino and Mike Fontaine

3. Elvis (Warner Bros) – BAFTA, CCA, MUAH (3x) Mark Coulier, Jason Baird and Aldo Signoretti

4. Black Panther: Wakanda Forever (Walt Disney/Marvel Studios) – CCA, MUAH (2x) Camille Friend and Joel Harlow

5. All Quiet on the Western Front (Netflix) – BAFTA Heike Merker and Linda Eisenhamerová

VISUAL EFFECTS

1. Avatar: The Way of Water (20th Century Studios) – BAFTA, CCA, VES Joe Letteri, Richard Baneham, Eric Saindon and Daniel Barrett

2. Top Gun: Maverick (Paramount Pictures) – BAFTA, CCA, VES Ryan Tudhope, Seth Hill, Bryan Litson and Scott R. Fisher

3. The Batman (Warner Bros) – BAFTA, CCA, VES Dan Lemmon, Russell Earl, Anders Langlands and Dominic Tuohy

4. All Quiet on the Western Front (Netflix) – BAFTA Frank Petzold, Viktor Müller, Markus Frank and Kamil Jafar

5. Black Panther: Wakanda Forever (Walt Disney/Marvel Studios) – CCA Geoffrey Baumann, Craig Hammack, R. Christopher White and Dan Sudick

ANIMATED FEATURE

1. Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio (Netflix) – Annie, BAFTA, CCA, GG, PGA Guillermo del Toro, Mark Gustafson, Gary Ungar and Alex Bulkley

2. Marcel the Shell with Shoes On (A24) – Annie, BAFTA, CCA, GG, PGA Dean Fleischer Camp, Elisabeth Holm, Andrew Goldman, Caroline Kaplan and Paul Mezey

3. Puss in Boots: The Last Wish (DreamWorks/Universal) – Annie, BAFTA, CCA, GG, PGA Joel Crawford and Mark Swift

4. Turning Red (Walt Disney/Pixar) – Annie, BAFTA, CCA, GG, PGA Domee Shi and Lindsey Collins

5. The Sea Beast (Netflix) – Annie Chris Williams and Jed Schlanger

DOCUMENTARY FEATURE

1. Fire of Love (NatGeo/NEON)– BAFTA, CCA, CEH, IDA, PGA Sara Dosa, Shane Boris and Ina Fichman

2. Navalny (CNN) – BAFTA, CCA, CEH, IDA, PGA Daniel Roher, Odessa Rae, Diane Becker, Melanie Miller and Shane Boris

3. All the Beauty and the Bloodshed (NEON) – BAFTA, CEH, IDA Laura Poitras, Howard Gertler, John Lyons, Nan Goldin and Yoni Golijov

4. All That Breathes – BAFTA, CEH, IDA, PGA Shaunak Sen, Aman Mann and Teddy Leifer

5. A House Made of Splinters Simon Lereng Wilmont and Monica Hellström

INTERNATIONAL FEATURE FILM

1. Germany, All Quiet on the Western Front (Netflix) – BAFTA, CCA, GG

2. Belgium, Close (A24) – CCA, GG

3. Argentina, Argentina, 1985 (Amazon Studios) – BAFTA, CCA, GG

4. Ireland, The Quiet Girl (Super/NEON) – BAFTA

5. Poland, EO (JanusFilms/Sideshow)

ANIMATED SHORT FILM

1. The Boy, the Mole, the Fox and the Horse Charlie Mackesy and Matthew Freud

2. An Ostrich Told Me the World Is Fake and I Think I Believe It Lachlan Pendragon

3. The Flying Sailor Amanda Forbis and Wendy Tilby

4. My Year of Dicks Sara Gunnarsdóttir and Pamela Ribon

5. Ice Merchants João Gonzalez and Bruno Caetano

DOCUMENTARY SHORT FILM

1. Stranger at the Gate Joshua Seftel and Conall Jones

2. How Do You Measure a Year? Jay Rosenblatt

3. The Elephant Whisperers Kartiki Gonsalves and Guneet Monga

4. The Martha Mitchell Effect Anne Alvergue and Beth Levison

5. Haulout Evgenia Arbugaeva and Maxim Arbugaev

LIVE ACTION SHORT FILM

1. Le Pupille Alice Rohrwacher and Alfonso Cuarón

2. Night Ride Eirik Tveiten and Gaute Lid Larssen

3. The Red Suitcase Cyrus Neshvad

4. An Irish Goodbye Tom Berkeley and Ross White

5. Ivalu Anders Walter and Rebecca Pruzan