Frontrunner Friday Oscar Predictions: Blood Brothers

When Spike Lee’s Da 5 Bloods was released back in June of 2020 it was a test. We were entering the summer without a blockbuster. Theaters were closed and everything was in disarray. At the time, Da 5 Bloods felt like a small salve for a summer we weren’t going to have at the movies and it was. What it also was, if you were trusting your instincts, was a potential Oscar player. A big one. Many dismissed it, whether they felt its summer release in an expanded year would leave it forgotten or that it would be lost in the shuffle come critics’ season. We’re right in the thick of critics’ awards season now and look who’s on top of the Best Actor race: Delroy Lindo, with wins from New York Film Critics Circle and the National Society of Film Critics. Even Chadwick Boseman, a locked in lead nominee for Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom, emerged as a major contender in Supporting Actor with his NYFCC win. The true test will be in the coming weeks when the Golden Globes and Screen Actors Guild announce their nominees on February 3 and 4, respectively.

Reviews for Sam Levinson’s Malcolm & Marie dropped this morning and some of them weren’t too kind, to say the least. While most negative comments targeted their ire directly at Levinson himself, calling him everything from a spoiled rich kid with a famous dad to using a Black man (John David Washington’s filmmaker) as a shield for his diatribe against critics, the notices on the performances from Zendaya and Washington were largely positive. So what does that mean in the Best Actress race, which is already tenuous at best? Can Zendaya remain in a film getting tanked by reviews? As many pundits like to remind each other, critics aren’t Oscar voters. This could be one of the best examples that especially proves that rule if the Emmy-winning superstar can break through the negative ink and still secure a spot in the top 5.

The biggest Oscar news this week came in when the Board of Governors surprised everyone by announcing they had eliminated the executive committee ‘saves,’ as they’re called, in the International Feature Film category. Instead of a shortlist of 10 (which would have been comprised of seven general committee selections and three executive), we’ll now get 15, all general committee. The announcement came mere weeks before the Oscar shortlists in multiple categories, including IFF, are to be announced. The announcement was met largely with derision, as most feel certain esoteric films and selections, particularly from Africa and South America, have often made up the majority of the executive committee saves and without those voices we might be entering into an era of the populist picks. The expansion of the category’s voting to the membership at large already ensured that the film most seen or recognized would be a likely winner, but now at the nominating stage, it seems that’s what we could see too. But, let’s see what the shortlist provides us on February 9 before passing too much judgement.

More Oscar news came in when Variety reported that the scores from One Night in Miami Sound of Metal and Judas and the Black Messiah would not be eligible for Original Score. The United States vs Billie Holiday is also out, as it utilizes too much pre-existing music. One interesting thing in the original score discussion has been how the Academy will see the collaboration of Trent Reznor & Atticus Ross with Jon Batiste on the score of Pixar’s Soul. All three are submitted, and were accepted, for BAFTA consideration. The score has been the overwhelming critics’ favorite, scooping up over a dozen prizes. But only the San Francisco critics acknowledged Batiste in their win. It remains to be seen how the Academy will rule but we’ll know at least by the time the Oscar shortlists arrive on February 9.

Here are my Frontrunner Friday Oscar predictions for January 22, 2021. For monthly predictions, click on each category title.

BEST PICTURE

1. Nomadland (Searchlight Pictures)
Frances McDormand, Peter Spears, Mollye Asher, Dan Janvey, Chloé Zhao (producers)

2. The Trial of the Chicago 7 (Netflix)
Stuart M. Besser, Matt Jackson, Marc Platt, Tyler Thompson (producers)

3. Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (Netflix)
Todd Black, Denzel Washington, Dany Wolf (producers)

4. Mank (Netflix)
David Fincher, Ceán Chaffin, Eric Roth, Douglas Urbanski (producers)

5. Da 5 Bloods (Netflix)
Jon Kilik, Spike Lee, Beatriz Levin, Lloyd Levin (producers)

6. News of the World (Universal Pictures)
Gary Goetzman, Gregory Goodman, Gail Mutrux (producers)

7. The Father (Sony Pictures Classics)
Philippe Carcassonne, Simon Friend, Jean-Louis Livi, David Parfitt, Christophe Spadone (producers)

8. Minari (A24)
Dede Gardner, Jeremy Kleiner, Christina Oh (producers)

9. One Night in Miami… (Amazon Studios)
Jess Wu Calder, Keith Calder, Jody Klein (producers)

10. Promising Young Woman (Focus Features)
Tom Ackerley, Ben Browning, Emerald Fennell, Ashley Fox, Margot Robbie (producers)

BEST DIRECTOR (alphabetical by film)

1. Chloé Zhao – Nomadland (Searchlight Pictures)

2. David Fincher – Mank (Netflix)

3. Aaron Sorkin – The Trial of the Chicago 7 (Netflix)

4. George C. Wolfe – Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (Netflix)

5. Spike Lee – Da 5 Bloods (Netflix)

BEST ACTOR

1. Chadwick Boseman – Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (Netflix)

2. Delroy Lindo – Da 5 Bloods (Netflix)

3. Anthony Hopkins – The Father (Sony Pictures Classics)

4. Riz Ahmed – Sound of Metal (Amazon Studios)

5. Gary Oldman – Mank (Netflix)

BEST ACTRESS

1. Viola Davis – Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (Netflix)

2. Frances McDormand – Nomadland (Searchlight Pictures)

3. Carey Mulligan – Promising Young Woman (Focus Features)

4. Zendaya – Malcolm & Marie (Netflix)

5. Vanessa Kirby – Pieces of a Woman (Netflix)

SUPPORTING ACTOR

1. Sacha Baron Cohen – The Trial of the Chicago 7 (Netflix)

2. Leslie Odom, Jr. – One Night in Miami… (Amazon Studios)

3. Daniel Kaluuya – Judas and the Black Messiah (Warner Bros)

4. Chadwick Boseman – Da 5 Bloods (Netflix)

5. Paul Raci – Sound of Metal (Amazon Studios)

SUPPORTING ACTRESS

1. Amanda Seyfried – Mank (Netflix)

2. Olivia Colman – The Father (Sony Pictures Classics)

3. Ellen Burstyn – Pieces of a Woman (Netflix)

4. Youn Yuh-jung – Minari (A24)

5. Glenn Close – Hillbilly Elegy (Netflix)

ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

1. Nomadland (Searchlight Pictures)
Chloé Zhao (based on the book “Nomadland: Surviving America in the Twenty-First Century” by Jessica Bruder)

2. Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (Netflix)
Ruben Santiago-Hudson (based on the play “Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom” by August Wilson)

3. The Father (Sony Pictures Classics)
Christopher Hampton, Florian Zeller (based on the play “Le Père” by Florian Zeller)

4. One Night in Miami… (Amazon Studios)
Kemp Powers (based on the play “One Night in Miami…” by Kemp Powers)

5. First Cow (A24)
Kelly Reichardt, Jonathan Raymond (based on the novel “The Half Life” by Jonathan Raymond)

ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

1. The Trial of the Chicago 7 (Netflix)
Aaron Sorkin

2. Mank (Netflix)
Jack Fincher

3. Promising Young Woman (Focus Features)
Emerald Fennell

4. Da 5 Bloods (Netflix)
Danny Bilson, Paul De Meo, Kevin Willmott, Spike Lee

5. Minari (A24)
Lee Isaac Chung

FILM EDITING

1.  The Trial of the Chicago 7 (Netflix)
Alan Baumgarten

2. Nomadland (Searchlight Pictures)
Chloé Zhao

3. Mank (Netflix)
Kirk Baxter

4. News of the World (Universal Pictures)
William Goldenberg

5. The Father (Sony Pictures Classics)
Yorgos Lamprinos

CINEMATOGRAPHY

1. Nomadland (Searchlight Pictures)
Joshua James Richards

2. Mank (Netflix)
Erik Messerschmidt

3. Tenet (Warner Bros)
Hoyte van Hoytema

4. Da 5 Bloods (Netlfix)
Newton Thomas Sigel

5. The Trial of the Chicago 7 (Netflix)
Phedon Papamichael

PRODUCTION DESIGN

1. Mank (Netflix)
Donald Graham Burt (production designer), Jan Pascale (set decorator)

2. Mulan (Walt Disney Pictures)
Grant Major (production designer), Anne Kuljian (set decorator)

3. The Personal History of David Copperfield (Searchlight Pictures)
Cristina Casali (production designer), Charlotte Dirickx (set decorator)

4. News of the World (Universal Pictures)
David Crank (production designer), Elizabeth Keenan (set decorator)

5. Tenet (Warner Bros)
Nathan Crowley (production designer), Kathy Lucas (set decorator)

COSTUME DESIGN

1. Mank (Netflix)
Trish Summerville

2. Emma. (Focus Features)
Alexandra Byrne

3. The United States vs. Billie Holiday (Hulu)
Paolo Nieddu

4. Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (Netflix)
Ann Roth

5. News of the World (Universal Pictures)
Mark Bridges

MAKEUP and HAIRSTYLING

1. Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (Netflix)
Matiki Anoff (makeup department head), Mia Neal (hair department head), Larry M. Cherry (hair department head)

2. Bill & Ted Face the Music (Orion Pictures)
Bill Corso (makeup department head), Kevin Yagher (special makeup effects artist)

3. Hillbilly Elegy (Netflix) (Netflix)
Eryn Krueger Mekash (makeup department head), Patricia Dehaney (hair department head), Matthew Mungle (prosthetic designer)

4. The United States vs Billie Holiday (Hulu)
Ronald J. Wolfe (hair department head), Charles Gregory Ross (hair stylist: Ms. Day, wig designer, hair department head) Laini Thompson (makeup department head)

5. Birds of Prey (and the Fantabulous Emancipation of One Harley Quinn) (Warner Bros)
Nominees TBD

ORIGINAL SCORE

1. Soul (Disney/Pixar)
Trent Reznor and Atticus Ross (and Jon Batiste, if eligible)

2. Mank (Netflix)
Trent Reznor and Atticus Ross

3. News of the World (Universal Pictures)
James Newton Howard

4. Da 5 Bloods (Netflix)
Terence Blanchard

5. Minari (A24)
Emile Mosseri

ORIGINAL SONG

1. “Speak Now” from One Night in Miami… (Amazon Studios)
Written by Leslie Odom, Jr. and Sam Ashworth

2. “Io Sì” (Seen)” from The Life Ahead (Netflix)
Written by Diane Warren

3. “Rocket to the Moon” fromOver the Moon (Netflix)
Written by Christopher Curtis, Marjorie Duffield & Helen Park

4. “Husavik (My Hometown)” from Eurovision Song Contest: The Story of Fire Saga (Netflix)
Written by Fat Max Gsus, Rickard Göransson, and Savan Kotecha

5. “Just Sing” from Trolls: World Tour (DreamWorks Animation)
Written by Justin Timberlake, Ludwig Göransson, Max Martin and Sarah Aarons

SOUND

1. Tenet (Warner Bros)
Richard King, Mark Larry, Kevin O’Connell, Gary A. Rizzo

2. The Midnight Sky (Netflix)
Randy Thom, Dan Hiland, Todd Beckett, Danny Hambrook, Bjorn Schroeder

3. Sound of Metal (Amazon Studios)
Phillip Bladh, Nicolas Becker, Jaime Baksht, Michelle Couttolenc, Carlos Cortés, Carolina Santana

4. News of the World (Universal Pictures)
John Pritchett, Mike Prestwood Smith, William Miller, Oliver Tarney, Michael Fentum

5. Mank (Netflix)
Ren Klyce, Jeremy Molod, David Parker, Nathan Nance, Drew Kunin

VISUAL EFFECTS

1. The Midnight Sky (Netflix)
Matt Kasmir, Chris Lawrence, Dave Watkins, Max Solomon

2. Tenet (Warner Bros)
Andrew Jackson, Andrew Lockley, Scott R. Fisher, Mike Chambers

3. The Invisible Man (Universal Pictures)
Jonathan Dearing, Marcus Bolton, Matt Ebb, Aevar Bjarnason

4. Mulan (Disney+)
Sean Faden, Anders Langlands, Seth Maury, Steve Ingram

5. Birds of Prey (and the Fantabulous Emancipation of One Harley Quinn) (Warner Bros)
Nominees TBD

ANIMATED FEATURE

1. Soul (Disney/Pixar)
Pete Docter, Dana Murray

2. Wolfwalkers (Apple TV+/Cartoon Saloon/GKIDS)
Stéphan Roelants, Tomm Moore, Ross Stewart, Paul Young, Nora Twomey

3. Over the Moon (Netflix)
Glen Keane, Peilin Chou, Gennie Rim

4. Onward (Pixar)
Dan Scanlon, Kori Rae

5. No. 7 Cherry Lane
Yonfan, Monica Chau

DOCUMENTARY FEATURE

1. Collective (Magnolia Selects)
Alexander Nanau

2. Time (Amazon Studios)
Garrett Bradley

3. Welcome to Chechnya (HBO Documentary Films)
David France

4. Crip Camp: A Disability Revolution (Netflix)
James Lebrecht, Nicole Newnham

5. The Truffle Hunters (Sony Pictures Classics)
Michael Dweck, Gregory Kershaw

INTERNATIONAL FEATURE FILM

1. Another Round (Denmark)

2. Night of the Kings (Ivory Coast)

3. Collective (Romania)

4. I’m No Longer Here (Mexico)

5. The Endless Trench (Spain)

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Erik Anderson

Erik Anderson is the founder/owner and Editor-in-Chief of AwardsWatch and has always loved all things Oscar, having watched the Academy Awards since he was in single digits; making lists, rankings and predictions throughout the show. This led him down the path to obsessing about awards. Much later, he found himself in film school and the film forums of GoldDerby, and then migrated over to the former Oscarwatch (now AwardsDaily), before breaking off to create AwardsWatch in 2013.

He is a Rotten Tomatoes-approved critic, accredited by the Cannes Film Festival, Telluride Film Festival, Toronto International Film Festival and more, is a member of the International Cinephile Society (ICS), The Society of LGBTQ Entertainment Critics (GALECA), Hollywood Critics Association (HCA) and the International Press Academy. Among his many achieved goals with AwardsWatch, he has given a platform to underrepresented writers and critics and supplied them with access to film festivals and the industry and calls the Bay Area his home where he lives with his husband and son.

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