Frontrunner Friday Oscar Predictions: Entering the final stretch

In a very busy weekend of high-profile awards like the Annie Awards and Directors Guild on Saturday night and both BAFTA and Critics’ Choice on Sunday, awards watchers will be feasting as we enter the final stretch of this Oscar race.

The DGA feels pretty locked in for Jane Campion (The Power of the Dog) but will BAFTA and Critics’ Choice pick up the relay stick for the film or will Belfast triumph? After this weekend’s ceremonies we’ll have several more next week like WGA, both MPSE and CAS for sound, ASC, WGA and the most important guild of the season, the Producers Guild, which could tell us what we thought all along or throw us a curveball and go for CODA, Dune or like ACE did, King Richard. Oscar winner voting kicks off on the 17th and lasts through the 22nd, right in the middle of these major guilds.

Here is my last Frontrunner Friday for the season. Final Oscar predictions will roll out over the next two weeks.

BEST PICTURE

1. The Power of the Dog (Netflix) Jane Campion, Tanya Seghatchian, Emile Sherman, Iain Canning and Roger Frappier, Producers – GG, CCA, BAFTA, PGA
2. King Richard (Warner Bros/HBO Max) Tim White, Trevor White and Will Smith, Producers – GG, CCA, SAG, PGA
3. Belfast (Focus Features) Laura Berwick, Kenneth Branagh, Becca Kovacik and Tamar Thomas, Producers – GG, CCA, SAG, BAFTA, PGA
4. West Side Story (20th Century Studios) Steven Spielberg and Kristie Macosko Krieger, Producers – GG, CCA, PGA
5. Dune (Warner Bros/HBO Max) Mary Parent, Denis Villeneuve and Cale Boyter, Producers – GG, CCA, BAFTA, PGA
6. CODA (Apple Original Films) Philippe Rousselet, Fabrice Gianfermi and Patrick Wachsberger, Producers – GG, CCA, SAG, PGA
7. Don’t Look Up (Netflix) Adam McKay and Kevin Messick, Producers – GG, CCA, SAG, BAFTA, PGA
8. Licorice Pizza (MGM/UAR) Sara Murphy, Adam Somner and Paul Thomas Anderson, Producers – GG, CCA, BAFTA, PGA
9. Drive My Car (Sideshow/Janus Films) Teruhisa Yamamoto, Producer
10. Nightmare Alley (Searchlight Pictures) Guillermo del Toro, J. Miles Dale and Bradley Cooper, Producers – CCA

BEST DIRECTOR

1. Jane Campion – The Power of the Dog (Netflix) – GG, CCA, BAFTA, DGA   
2. Kenneth Branagh – Belfast (Focus Features) – GG, CCA, DGA   
3. Steven Spielberg – West Side Story (20^th Century Studios) – GG, CCA, DGA
4. Ryusuke Hamaguchi – Drive My Car (Sideshow/Janus Films) – BAFTA  
5. Paul Thomas Anderson – Licorice Pizza (MGM/UAR) – CCA, BAFTA, DGA 

BEST ACTOR

1. Will Smith – King Richard (Warner Bros/HBO Max) – GG, CCA, SAG, BAFTA
2. Benedict Cumberbatch – The Power of the Dog (Netflix) – GG, CCA, SAG, BAFTA
3. Andrew Garfield – tick, tick…BOOM! (Netflix) – GG, CCA, SAG
4. Denzel Washington – The Tragedy of Macbeth (A24/Apple Original Films) – GG, CCA, SAG
5. Javier Bardem – Being the Ricardos (Amazon Studios) – GG, SAG

BEST ACTRESS

1. Jessica Chastain – The Eyes of Tammy Faye (Searchlight Pictures) – GG, CCA, SAG 
2. Olivia Colman – The Lost Daughter (Netflix) – GG, CCA, SAG 
3. Nicole Kidman – Being the Ricardos (Amazon Studios) – GG, CCA, SAG
4. Kristen Stewart – Spencer (NEON) – GG, CCA
5. Penélope Cruz – Parallel Mothers (Sony Pictures Classics)

SUPPORTING ACTOR

1. Troy Kotsur – CODA (Apple Original Films) – GG, CCA, SAG, BAFTA
2. Kodi Smit-McPhee – The Power of the Dog (Netflix) – GG, CCA, SAG, BAFTA
3. Ciarán Hinds – Belfast (Focus Features) – GG, CCA, BAFTA
4. J.K. Simmons – Being the Ricardos (Amazon Studios) – CCA
5. Jesse Plemons – The Power of the Dog (Netflix) – BAFTA

SUPPORTING ACTRESS

1. Ariana DeBose – West Side Story (20th Century Studios) – GG, CCA, SAG, BAFTA
2. Kirsten Dunst – The Power of the Dog (Netflix) – GG, CCA, SAG
3. Aunjanue Ellis – King Richard (Warner Bros/HBO Max) – GG, CCA, BAFTA
4. Jessie Buckley – The Lost Daughter (Netflix) – BAFTA
5. Judi Dench – Belfast (Focus Features)

ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

1. The Power of the Dog – Jane Campion (Netflix) – GG, CCA, BAFTA, USC
2. The Lost Daughter – Maggie Gyllenhaal (Netflix) – CCA, BAFTA, USC
3. CODA – Siân Heder (Apple Original Films) – CCA, BAFTA, WGA
4. Drive My Car – Ryusuke Hamaguchi, Takamasa Oe (Sideshow/Janus Films) – BAFTA
5. Dune – Denis Villeneuve, Jon Spaihts, Eric Roth (Warner Bros/HBO Max) – CCA, BAFTA, USC, WGA

ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

1. Licorice Pizza – Paul Thomas Anderson (MGM/UAR) – GG, CCA, BAFTA, WGA 
2. Belfast – Kenneth Branagh (Focus Features) – GG, CCA, BAFTA
3. King Richard – Zach Baylin (Warner Bros/ HBO Max) – CCA, BAFTA, WGA
4. Don’t Look Up – Adam McKay, David Sirota (Netflix) – GG, CCA, BAFTA, WGA   
5. The Worst Person in the World – Eskil Vogt, Joachim Trier (NEON)

FILM EDITING

1. Dune (Warner Bros/HBO Max) – CCA, BAFTA, ACE
Joe Walker 

2. The Power of the Dog (Netflix) – CCA, ACE
Peter Sciberras

3. King Richard (Warner Bros/HBO Max) – ACE
Pamela Martin

4. tick, tick…BOOM! (Netflix) – ACE
Myron Kerstein and Andrew Weisblum

5. Don’t Look Up (Netflix) – ACE
Hank Corwin

CINEMATOGRAPHY

1. The Power of the Dog (Netflix) – CCA, BAFTA, ASC
Ari Wegner

2. Dune (Warner Bros/HBO Max) – CCA, BAFTA, ASC
Greig Fraser

3. The Tragedy of Macbeth (A24/Apple Original Films) – CCA, BAFTA, ASC
Bruno Delbonnel

4. West Side Story (20th Century Studios) – CCA
Janusz Kaminski

5. Nightmare Alley (Searchlight Pictures) – CCA, ASC, BAFTA
Dan Laustsen

COSTUME DESIGN

1. Cruella (Walt Disney) – CCA, BAFTA, CDG 
Jenny Beavan

2. Dune (Warner Bros/HBO Max) – CCA, BAFTA, CDG
Jacqueline West and Robert Morgan 

3. Nightmare Alley (Searchlight Pictures) – CCA, BAFTA, CDG  
Luis Sequeira

4. West Side Story (20th Century Studios) – CCA, CDG
Paul Tazewell

5. Cyrano (MGM/UAR) – BAFTA, CDG
Massimo Cantini Parrini and Jacqueline Durran

PRODUCTION DESIGN

1. Nightmare Alley (Searchlight Pictures) – CCA, BAFTA, SDSA, ADG
Production Design: Tamara Deverell; Set Decoration: Shane Vieau

2. Dune (Warner Bros/HBO Max) – CCA, BAFTA, SDSA, ADG
Production Design: Patrice Vermette; Set Decoration: Zsuzsanna Sipos

3. West Side Story (20th Century Studios) – CCA, BAFTA, SDSA, ADG  
Production Design: Adam Stockhausen; Set Decoration: Rena DeAngelo

4. The Tragedy of Macbeth (A24/Apple Original Films) – SDSA, ADG
Production Design: Stefan Dechant; Set Decoration: Nancy Haigh

5. The Power of the Dog (Netflix) – SDSA
Production Design: Grant Major; Set Decoration: Amber Richards

ORIGINAL SCORE

1. Dune (Warner Bros/HBO Max) – GG, CCA, HMMA (Sci-Fi), SCL, BAFTA
Hans Zimmer

2. The Power of the Dog (Netflix) – GG, CCA, HMMA, SCL, BAFTA
Jonny Greenwood

3. Encanto (Walt Disney) – GG, SCL
Germaine Franco

4.  Don’t Look Up (Netflix) – CCA, HMMA, SCL, BAFTA
Nicholas Britell

5. Parallel Mothers (Sony Pictures Classics) – GG, HMMA (Foreign Language), SCL
Alberto Iglesias

ORIGINAL SONG

1. “No Time to Die” from No Time to Die (MGM/UAR) – GG, CCA, HMMA, SCL 
Music and Lyric by Billie Eilish and Finneas O’Connell

2. “Dos Oruguitas” from Encanto (Walt Disney) – GG, CCA, HMMA 
Music and Lyric by Lin-Manuel Miranda

3. “Be Alive” from “King Richard (Warner Bros/HBO Max) – GG, CCA, HMMA
Music and Lyric by DIXSON and Beyoncé Knowles-Carter

4. “Down to Joy” from Belfast (Focus Features) – GG, HMMA (Indie)
Music and Lyric by Van Morrison

5. “Somehow You Do” from Four Good Days (Vertical Entertainment) – HMMA (indie), SCL
Music and Lyric by Diane Warren

SOUND

1. Dune (Warner Bros/HBO Max) – BAFTA, MPSE (3x), CAS
Mac Ruth, Mark Mangini, Theo Green, Doug Hemphill and Ron Bartlett

2. No Time to Die (MGM/UAR) – BAFTA, MPSE (2x), CAS
Simon Hayes, Oliver Tarney, James Harrison, Paul Massey and Mark Taylor   

3. West Side Story (20th Century Studios) – BAFTA, MPSE, CAS
Tod A. Maitland, Gary Rydstrom, Brian Chumney, Andy Nelson and Shawn Murphy

4. The Power of the Dog (Netflix) – MPSE, CAS
Richard Flynn, Robert Mackenzie and Tara Webb

5. Belfast (Focus Features) – MPSE
Denise Yarde, Simon Chase, James Mather, Niv Adiri

MAKEUP AND HAIRSTYLING

1. The Eyes of Tammy Faye (Searchlight Pictures) – CCA, BAFTA, MUAH (3x)
Linda Dowds, Stephanie Ingram and Justin Raleigh

2. Dune (Warner Bros/HBO Max) – CCA, BAFTA, MUAH (2x)
Donald Mowat, Love Larson and Eva von Bahr   

3. Cruella (Walt Disney) – CCA, BAFTA, MUAH (2x)
Nadia Stacey, Naomi Donne and Julia Vernon  

4. Coming 2 America (Amazon Studios) – MUAH (3x)
Mike Marino, Stacey Morris and Carla Farmer 

5. House of Gucci (MGM/UAR) – CCA, BAFTA, MUAH (3x) 
Göran Lundström, Anna Carin Lock and Frederic Aspiras

VISUAL EFFECTS

1. Dune (Warner Bros/HBO Max) – CCA, BAFTA, VES (4x)
Paul Lambert, Tristan Myles, Brian Connor and Gerd Nefzer

2. Shang-Chi and the Legend of the Ten Rings (Walt Disney/Marvel Studios) – CCA, Annie, VES (4x)
Christopher Townsend, Joe Farrell, Sean Noel Walker and Dan Oliver

3. Spider-Man: No Way Home (Sony Pictures/Marvel Studios) – VES
Kelly Port, Chris Waegner, Scott Edelstein and Dan Sudick

4. Free Guy (20^th Century Studios) – BAFTA
Swen Gillberg, Bryan Grill, Nikos Kalaitzidis and Dan Sudick

5. No Time to Die (MGM/UAR) – BAFTA, VES
Charlie Noble, Joel Green, Jonathan Fawkner and Chris Corbould

ANIMATED FEATURE

1. Encanto (Walt Disney) – GG, CCA, Annie, BAFTA, PGA
Jared Bush, Byron Howard, Yvett Merino and Clark Spencer

2. Luca (Walt Disney/Pixar) – GG, CCA, Annie, BAFTA, PGA
Enrico Casarosa and Andrea Warren

3. The Mitchells vs the Machines (Netflix) – CCA, Annie, BAFTA, PGA
Mike Rianda, Phil Lord, Christopher Miller and Kurt Albrecht

4. Flee (NEON) – GG, CCA, Annie (Indie), EFA, BAFTA
Jonas Poher Rasmussen, Monica Hellström, Signe Byrge Sørensen and Charlotte De La Gournerie

5. Raya and the Last Dragon (Walt Disney) – GG, CCA, Annie, PGA
Don Hall, Carlos López Estrada, Osnat Shurer and Peter Del Vecho

DOCUMENTARY FEATURE

1. Summer of Soul (Searchlight Pictures/Hulu) – CEH, CCA, IDA, PGA, BAFTA
Ahmir “Questlove” Thompson, Joseph Patel, Robert Fyvolent and David Dinerstein

2. Flee (NEON) – CEH, CCA, DOC NYC, Gotham, IDA, EFA, PGA, BAFTA
Jonas Poher Rasmussen, Monica Hellström, Signe Byrge Sørensen and Charlotte De La Gournerie

3. Ascension (MTV Documentary Films) – CEH, CCA, DOC NYC, Gotham, IDA, PGA 
Jessica Kingdon, Kira Simon-Kennedy and Nathan Truesdell

4. Attica (Showtime) – CCA
Stanley Nelson and Traci A. Curry

5. Writing with Fire (Music Box Films) – IDA, PGA
Rintu Thomas and Sushmit Ghosh

INTERNATIONAL FEATURE FILM

1. Drive My Car (Japan) – GG, CCA, BAFTA
2. The Worst Person in the World (Norway) – BAFTA
3. Flee (Denmark) – CCA 
4. The Hand of God (Italy) – EFA, GG, CCA, BAFTA
5. Lunana: A Yak in the Classroom (Bhutan)

ANIMATED SHORT FILM

1. Robin Robin (Netflix)
2. Bestia (Miyu Distribution)
3. The Windshield Wiper (The Animation Showcase)
4. Affairs of the Heart (The New Yorker) – BAFTA
5. Boxballet (Melnitsa Animation Studio) 

DOCUMENTARY SHORT SUBJECT

1. Audible (Netflix)
2. The Queen of Basketball (The New York Times)
3. Three Songs for Benazir (Netflix) 
4. When We Were Bullies (Locomotion Films)
5. Lead Me Home (Netflix) 

LIVE ACTION SHORT

1. The Long Goodbye (WePresent)
2. The Dress (DOBRO/MIŁO/GŁOSNO)  
3. Ala Kachuu – Take and Run (Salaud Morisset)
4. Please Hold (Scavenger Entertainment)
5. On My Mind (Benzoa Film)

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Erik Anderson

Erik Anderson is the founder/owner and Editor-in-Chief of AwardsWatch and has always loved all things Oscar, having watched the Academy Awards since he was in single digits; making lists, rankings and predictions throughout the show. This led him down the path to obsessing about awards. Much later, he found himself in film school and the film forums of GoldDerby, and then migrated over to the former Oscarwatch (now AwardsDaily), before breaking off to create AwardsWatch in 2013.

He is a Rotten Tomatoes-approved critic, accredited by the Cannes Film Festival, Telluride Film Festival, Toronto International Film Festival and more, is a member of the International Cinephile Society (ICS), The Society of LGBTQ Entertainment Critics (GALECA), Hollywood Critics Association (HCA) and the International Press Academy. Among his many achieved goals with AwardsWatch, he has given a platform to underrepresented writers and critics and supplied them with access to film festivals and the industry and calls the Bay Area his home where he lives with his husband and son.

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