Frontrunner Friday Oscar Predictions: Extremely Loud and Incredibly Glenn Close

You could feel it coming. After months of wondering how Hillbilly Elegy was going to land with critics and with it, the potential Oscar hopes for its overdue stars Amy Adams and Glenn Close (as well as director Ron Howard and everyone down the line), it didn’t so much land as much as it blew up like a backyard moonshine still that was too close to the meth lab.

Now, to be sure, ‘critics aren’t Oscar voters,’ and we’ve seen some bulletproof films mine serious gold but those film, Green Book and Bohemian Rhapsody specifically, brought with them audience award wins and a billion dollars (respectively) before being crowned. Hillbilly Elegy isn’t likely to dig its way out of a 39 score on Metacritic to be able to defy the odds. That said…there will absolutely be Academy voters for whom films like this always work. So it’s not a lost cause just yet. I’m keeping it afloat in multiple categories but we do have a new #1 in supporting actress.

But, the bigger problem for the film isn’t going to be voters it’s going to be Netflix itself, which has its biggest slate of films ever and in a closed theater pandemic world, sits in the best position of any studio in Hollywood right now. They have so many films, so many contenders, that if one starts to falter they can simply boost another to replace it. I don’t say that to sound cynical, it’s simply shrewd strategizing for awards season. The film, and performances, that are in the best shape to do that right now is the streamer’s most recent pickup, Pieces of a Woman. The film premiered at Venice where Vanessa Kirby, who turns in the year’s most harrowing performance, won Best Actress. From then it went to TIFF and this week screened for critics. Along with Kirby will be previous Best Actress Oscar winner Ellen Burstyn (1975’s Alice Doesn’t Live Here Anymore) who turns in one of the best performances of her career with a searing monologue that is Oscar ready. It’s been 20 years since her last nomination (which was, incidentally, 20 years after her last) and if Burstyn is nominated, she’ll become the oldest acting nominee in Academy history at 88 years and 98 days of age.

On Thursday, awards season really kicked off with the 30th Gotham Awards nominations which saw some big surprises and big snubs. But really, for the Gothams a snub isn’t as big as getting in, if that makes sense. For example, One Night in Miami… didn’t do as well as some expected (it only nabbed a Breakthrough Actor nod for Kingsley Ben-Adir, a good mention) but will likely still do well as the season goes on. On the other side, Chadwick Boseman earned a Best Actor nod for Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom, a fantastic bellwether considering the Gotham juries are made up of five people per category and skew heavily indie. Titles like Nomadland, which were already destined for huge tallies this season, only benefit from this early start.

Here are my Frontrunner Friday Oscar predictions for November 13, 2020. For monthly predictions, click on each category title.

BEST PICTURE (alphabetical by film)

Da 5 Bloods (Netflix)
Jon Kilik, Spike Lee, Beatriz Levin, Lloyd Levin (producers)

The Father (Sony Pictures Classics)
Philippe Carcassonne, Simon Friend, Jean-Louis Livi, David Parfitt, Christophe Spadone (producers)

Hillbilly Elegy (Netflix)
Brian Grazer, Ron Howard, Erica Huggins, Karen Lunder (producers)

Nomadland (Searchlight Pictures)
Frances McDormand, Peter Spears, Mollye Asher, Dan Janvey, Chloé Zhao (producers)

One Night in Miami… (Amazon Studios)
Jess Wu Calder, Keith Calder, Jody Klein (producers)

Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (Netflix)
Todd Black, Denzel Washington, Dany Wolf (producers)

Mank (Netflix)
David Fincher, Ceán Chaffin, Eric Roth, Douglas Urbanski (producers)

Minari (A24)
Dede Gardner, Jeremy Kleiner, Christina Oh (producers)

News of the World (Universal Pictures)
Gary Goetzman, Gregory Goodman, Gail Mutrux (producers)

The Trial of the Chicago 7 (Netflix)
Stuart M. Besser, Matt Jackson, Marc Platt, Tyler Thompson (producers)

BEST DIRECTOR (alphabetical by film)

Spike Lee – Da 5 Bloods (Netflix)

Florian Zeller – The Father (Sony Classics Pictures)

Ron Howard – Hillbilly Elegy (Netflix)

Chloé Zhao – Nomadland (Searchlight Pictures)

George C. Wolfe – Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (Netflix)

David Fincher – Mank (Netflix)

Lee Isaac Chung – Minari (A24)

Paul Greengrass – News of the World (Universal Pictures)

Regina King – One Night in Miami… (Amazon)

Aaron Sorkin – The Trial of the Chicago 7 (Netflix)

BEST ACTOR

1. Chadwick Boseman – Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (Netflix)

2. Anthony Hopkins – The Father (Sony Pictures Classics)

3. Delroy Lindo – Da 5 Bloods (Netflix)

4. Gary Oldman – Mank (Netflix)

5. Steven Yeun – Minari (A24)

BEST ACTRESS

1. Viola Davis – Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (Netflix)

2. Frances McDormand – Nomadland (Searchlight Pictures)

3. Vanessa Kirby – Pieces of a Woman (Netflix)

4. Andra Day – The United States vs Billie Holiday (Paramount Pictures)

5. Sophia Loren – The Life Ahead (Netflix)

SUPPORTING ACTOR

1. Leslie Odom, Jr. – One Night in Miami… (Amazon)

2. Sacha Baron Cohen – The Trial of the Chicago 7 (Netflix)

3.  Stanley Tucci – Supernova (Bleecker Street)

4. Chadwick Boseman – Da 5 Bloods (Netflix)

5. Glynn Turman – Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (Netflix)

SUPPORTING ACTRESS

1. Amanda Seyfried – Mank (Netflix)

2. Olivia Colman – The Father (Sony Pictures Classics)

3. Glenn Close – Hillbilly Elegy (Netflix)

4. Youn Yuh-jung – Minari (A24)

5. Ellen Burstyn – Pieces of a Woman (Netflix)

ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

1. Nomadland (Searchlight Pictures)
Chloé Zhao (based on the book “Nomadland: Surviving America in the Twenty-First Century” by Jessica Bruder)

2. One Night in Miami… (Amazon Studios)
Kemp Powers (based on the play “One Night in Miami…” by Kemp Powers)

3. The Father (Sony Pictures Classics)
Christopher Hampton, Florian Zeller (based on the play “Le Père” by Florian Zeller)

4. Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (Netflix)
Ruben Santiago-Hudson (based on the play “Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom” by August Wilson)

5. News of the World (Universal Pictures)
Luke Davies, Paul Greengrass (based on the novel “News of the World” by Paulette Jiles)

ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

1. Mank (Netflix)
Jack Fincher

2. The Trial of the Chicago 7 (Netflix)
Aaron Sorkin

3. Soul (Pixar)
Pete Docter, Mike Jones, Kemp Powers

4. Minari (A24)
Lee Isaac Chung

5. Never Rarely Sometimes Always (Focus Features)
Eliza Hittman

FILM EDITING

1. Mank (Netflix)
Kirk Baxter

2. Nomadland (Searchlight Pictures)
Chloé Zhao

3. The Trial of the Chicago 7 (Netflix)
Alan Baumgarten

4. News of the World (Universal Pictures)
William Goldenberg

5. The Father (Sony Pictures Classics)
Yorgos Lamprinos

CINEMATOGRAPHY

1. Mank (Netflix)
Erik Messerschmidt

2. Nomadland (Searchlight Pictures)
Joshua James Richards

3. Tenet (Warner Bros)
Hoyte van Hoytema

4. News of the World (Universal Pictures)
Dariusz Wolski

5. Minari (A24)
Lachlan Milne

PRODUCTION DESIGN

1. Mank (Netflix)
Donald Graham Burt (production designer), Jan Pascale (set decorator)

2. Mulan (Walt Disney Pictures)
Grant Major (production designer), Anne Kuljian (set decorator)

3. Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (Netflix)
Mark Ricker (production designer), Karen O’Hara and Diana Stoughton (set decorators)

4. News of the World (Universal Pictures)
David Crank (production designer), Elizabeth Keenan (set decorator)

5. Emma. (Focus Features)
Kave Quinn (production designer), Stella Fox (set decorations)

COSTUME DESIGN

1. Mank (Netflix)
Trish Summerville

2. Mulan (Walt Disney Pictures)
Bina Daigeler

3. Emma. (Focus Features)
Alexandra Byrne

4. Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (Netflix)
Ann Roth

5. Ammonite (Neon)
Michael O’Connor

MAKEUP and HAIRSTYLING

1. Hillbilly Elegy (Netflix)
Nominees TBD

2. Birds of Prey (and the Fantabulous Emancipation of One Harley Quinn) (Warner Bros)
Nominees TBD

3. Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (Netflix)
Nominees TBD

4. Coming 2 America (Amazon Studios)
Nominees TBD

5. Mulan (Walt Disney Pictures)
Nominees TBD

ORIGINAL SCORE

1. Soul (Pixar)
Trent Reznor and Atticus Ross (John Batiste, if eligible)

2. Mank (Netflix)
Trent Reznor and Atticus Ross

3. The Trial of the Chicago 7 (Netflix)
Daniel Pemberton

4. Hillbilly Elegy (Netflix)
David Fleming and Hans Zimmer

5. Minari (A24)
Emile Mosseri

ORIGINAL SONG

1. “Rocket to the Moon” from Over the Moon (Netflix)
Written by Christopher Curtis, Marjorie Duffield & Helen Park

2. “Lo Si” (Seen)” from The Life Ahead (Netflix)
Written by Diane Warren

3. “Hear My Voice” from The Trial of the Chicago 7 (Netflix)
Music by Daniel Pemberton; Lyrics by Daniel Pemberton and Celeste Waite

4. “Free” from The One and Only Ivan (Disney+)
Written by Diane Warren

5. “Speak Now” from One Night in Miami… (Amazon Studios)
Written by Leslie Odom, Jr. and Sam Ashworth

SOUND

1. Soul (Pixar)
Nominees TBD

2. Tenet (Warner Bros)
Nominees TBD

3. Sound of Metal (Amazon Studios)
Nominees TBD

4. The Midnight Sky  (Netflix)
Nominees TBD

5. Mank (Netflix)
Nominees TBD

VISUAL EFFECTS

1. The Midnight Sky (Netflix)
Nominees TBD

2. Mulan (Disney+)
Nominees TBD

3. Birds of Prey (and the Fantabulous Emancipation of One Harley Quinn) (Warner Bros)
Nominees TBD

4. Greyhound (Apple TV+)
Nominees TBD

5. Sonic the Hedgehog (Paramount Pictures)
Nominees TBD

ANIMATED FEATURE

1. Soul (Pixar)
Pete Docter, Dana Murray

2. Wolfwalkers (Apple TV+/GKIDS)
Stéphan Roelants, Tomm Moore, Ross Stewart, Paul Young, Nora Twomey

3. Over the Moon (Netflix)
Glen Keane, Peilin Chou, Gennie Rim

4. A Shaun the Sheep Movie: Farmageddon (Netflix)
Richard Phelan, Will Becher

5. Onward (Pixar)
Dan Scanlon, Kori Rae

DOCUMENTARY FEATURE

1.  Crip Camp (Netflix)
James Lebrecht, Nicole Newnham

2. Welcome to Chechnya (HBO Documentary Films
David France

3. Boys State (Apple TV+)
Amanda McBaine, Jesse Moss

4. The Dissident (Briarcliff Entertainment)
Bryan Fogel

5. The Truffle Hunters (Sony Pictures Classics)
Michael Dweck, Gregory Kershaw

November 6, 2020: Frontrunner Friday Oscar Predictions: Lady Sings the Blues

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