Frontrunner Friday Oscar Predictions: Give me a sign
The Screen Actors Guild Awards kicked the very fast Phase II of awards season into high gear, establishing two winners as undeniable frontrunners and opening the door for another to emerge and caused a lot of stir at the top.
CODA, the most feel-good family drama of the Best Picture Oscar lineup won the SAG Cast award and there has been a groundswell for the film over the last few months. The 2021 Sundance winner bought by Apple for a record-setting $25M was held until August and received no other festival run but its heartfelt performances and progressive representation of deaf culture and hiring deaf actors to play those characters has vaulted it into the spotlight of the kinds of films and stories the ‘new’ Academy has begun to recognize. The film started a strong nominations run back in December with Golden Globe and Critics Choice nominations for Best Picture, then Screen Actors Guild in January and finally, the Oscars in February.
But it’s not going to be an easy ride for the film. While it already has an underdog element to it, it’s going to also have to defy 85+ years of Oscar history to overcome several obstacles. With only three Oscar nominations (Picture, Supporting Actor, Adapted Screenplay) and none for either directing or editing, you’ll have to go all the way back to 1932’s Grand Hotel to find a film that has won with three or fewer nominations and neither of those crucial ones (Grand Hotel famously won Best Picture as its only nomination). The trouble with having to go that far back into history is that the Academy of 1932 is most definitely not the Academy of 2022. Neither is voting. Which, for predictions purposes in Best Picture, means we can really only begin in 2009 when the Academy expanded the Best Picture lineup and installed the preferential ballot for voting in the top category. Unlike all other categories, a simple majority won’t win you Best Picture, you need consensus. You need #1 votes to keep you afloat and then #2 and #3 votes to rise above. Can CODA, with zero craft support and no fall festival presence, overcome what no other winner has been able to in the last 12 years (much less 85) to triumph on the strength of faith or is it more pundits’ and chatter need for an alternative this late in the race to Belfast and The Power of the Dog?
As mentioned above, SAG took the frontrunner status of Best Actor Will Smith (King Richard) and Best Supporting Actress Ariana DeBose (West Side Story) and solidified them. They’re both going to win Critics’ Choice and probably BAFTA too. For Smith, it’s been an odd journey; with wins from only Black film critics groups like AAFCA and BFCC plus NBR his trajectory has been one of ‘it’s about time’ and that has filled his narrative. It’s been the opposite for DeBose, who is the critics’ leader in supporting actress and will ride that all the way through the industry accolades, too.
Speaking of critics’ faves, Troy Kotsur (CODA) upset Kodi Smit-McPhee (The Power of the Dog) in supporting actor, a possible tide-turning for the veteran actor finally getting recognition. His speeches are warm and funny and the kind voters love. Do voters really vote for a speech though? Not really, but it doesn’t hurt now that we’re back to live and televised events. It boosts and creates narrative. An even bigger upset though happened in Best Actress where Nicole Kidman, who had never won an individual SAG award for film after eight nominations, went in the favorite for Being the Ricardos (off just the strength of a Globe win) but lost once again, this time to a visibly shocked Jessica Chastain for The Eyes of Tammy Faye. At this rate, we’re going to have a second year in a row where a different actress wins each precursor, making for a nail-biting Oscar night. With no Best Actress contender coming from a Best Picture nominee (which helped Frances McDormand last year with Nomadland) and BAFTA having zero crossover, it’s going to be even more up in the air.
Precursor watch: American Cinema Editors (ACE) and Art Directors Guild (ADG) are March 5, Society of Composers and Lyricists and Visual Effects Society (VES) are March 8, Costume Designers Guild (CDG) is March 9, Annie Awards and Directors Guild (DGA) are March 12, BAFTA and Critics’ Choice are March 13. Oscar winner voting begins March 17 and goes through March 22.
Here are my Frontrunner Friday Oscar predictions in all 23 categories for March 4, 2022.
BEST PICTURE
- The Power of the Dog (Netflix) Jane Campion, Tanya Seghatchian, Emile Sherman, Iain Canning and Roger Frappier, Producers – GG, CCA, BAFTA, PGA
- Belfast (Focus Features) Laura Berwick, Kenneth Branagh, Becca Kovacik and Tamar Thomas, Producers – GG, CCA, SAG, BAFTA, PGA
- King Richard (Warner Bros/HBO Max) Tim White, Trevor White and Will Smith, Producers – GG, CCA, SAG, PGA
- West Side Story (20th Century Studios) Steven Spielberg and Kristie Macosko Krieger, Producers – GG, CCA, PGA
- Dune (Warner Bros/HBO Max) Mary Parent, Denis Villeneuve and Cale Boyter, Producers – GG, CCA, BAFTA, PGA
- CODA (Apple Original Films) Philippe Rousselet, Fabrice Gianfermi and Patrick Wachsberger, Producers – GG, CCA, SAG, PGA
- Don’t Look Up (Netflix) Adam McKay and Kevin Messick, Producers – GG, CCA, SAG, BAFTA, PGA
- Licorice Pizza (MGM/UAR) Sara Murphy, Adam Somner and Paul Thomas Anderson, Producers – GG, CCA, BAFTA, PGA
- Drive My Car (Sideshow/Janus Films) Teruhisa Yamamoto, Producer
- Nightmare Alley (Searchlight Pictures) Guillermo del Toro, J. Miles Dale and Bradley Cooper, Producers – CCA
BEST DIRECTOR
1. Jane Campion – The Power of the Dog (Netflix) – GG, CCA, BAFTA, DGA
2. Kenneth Branagh – Belfast (Focus Features) – GG, CCA, DGA
3. Steven Spielberg – West Side Story (20th Century Studios) – GG, CCA, DGA
4. Ryusuke Hamaguchi – Drive My Car (Sideshow/Janus Films) – BAFTA
5. Paul Thomas Anderson – Licorice Pizza (MGM/UAR) – CCA, BAFTA, DGA
BEST ACTOR
1. Will Smith – King Richard (Warner Bros/HBO Max) – GG, CCA, SAG, BAFTA
2. Benedict Cumberbatch – The Power of the Dog (Netflix) – GG, CCA, SAG, BAFTA
3. Andrew Garfield – tick, tick…BOOM! (Netflix) – GG, CCA, SAG
4. Denzel Washington – The Tragedy of Macbeth (A24/Apple Original Films) – GG, CCA, SAG
5. Javier Bardem – Being the Ricardos (Amazon Studios) – GG, SAG
BEST ACTRESS
1. Jessica Chastain – The Eyes of Tammy Faye (Searchlight Pictures) – GG, CCA, SAG
2. Nicole Kidman – Being the Ricardos (Amazon Studios) – GG, CCA, SAG
3. Olivia Colman – The Lost Daughter (Netflix) – GG, CCA, SAG
4. Kristen Stewart – Spencer (NEON) – GG, CCA
5. Penélope Cruz – Parallel Mothers (Sony Pictures Classics)
SUPPORTING ACTOR
1. Troy Kotsur – CODA (Apple Original Films) – GG, CCA, SAG, BAFTA
2. Kodi Smit-McPhee – The Power of the Dog (Netflix) – GG, CCA, SAG, BAFTA
3. Ciarán Hinds – Belfast (Focus Features) – GG, CCA, BAFTA
4. J.K. Simmons – Being the Ricardos (Amazon Studios) – CCA
5. Jesse Plemons – The Power of the Dog (Netflix) – BAFTA
SUPPORTING ACTRESS
1. Ariana DeBose – West Side Story (20th Century Studios) – GG, CCA, SAG, BAFTA
2. Kirsten Dunst – The Power of the Dog (Netflix) – GG, CCA, SAG
3. Aunjanue Ellis – King Richard (Warner Bros/HBO Max) – GG, CCA, BAFTA
4. Jessie Buckley – The Lost Daughter (Netflix) – BAFTA
5. Judi Dench – Belfast (Focus Features)
ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
1. The Power of the Dog – Jane Campion (Netflix) – GG, CCA, BAFTA, USC
2. CODA – Siân Heder (Apple Original Films) – CCA, BAFTA, WGA
3. The Lost Daughter – Maggie Gyllenhaal (Netflix) – CCA, BAFTA, USC
4. Drive My Car – Ryusuke Hamaguchi, Takamasa Oe (Sideshow/Janus Films) – BAFTA
5. Dune – Denis Villeneuve, Jon Spaihts, Eric Roth (Warner Bros/HBO Max) – CCA, BAFTA, USC, WGA
ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
1. Licorice Pizza – Paul Thomas Anderson (MGM/UAR) – GG, CCA, BAFTA, WGA
2. Belfast – Kenneth Branagh (Focus Features) – GG, CCA, BAFTA
3. Don’t Look Up – Adam McKay, David Sirota (Netflix) – GG, CCA, BAFTA, WGA
4. King Richard – Zach Baylin (Warner Bros/ HBO Max) – CCA, BAFTA, WGA
5. The Worst Person in the World – Eskil Vogt, Joachim Trier (NEON)
FILM EDITING
1. Dune (Warner Bros/HBO Max) – CCA, BAFTA, ACE
Joe Walker
2. The Power of the Dog (Netflix) – CCA, ACE
Peter Sciberras
3. King Richard (Warner Bros/HBO Max) – ACE
Pamela Martin
4. tick, tick…BOOM! (Netflix) – ACE
Myron Kerstein and Andrew Weisblum
5. Don’t Look Up (Netflix) – ACE
Hank Corwin
CINEMATOGRAPHY
1. The Power of the Dog (Netflix) – CCA, BAFTA, ASC
Ari Wegner
2. Dune (Warner Bros/HBO Max) – CCA, BAFTA, ASC
Greig Fraser
3. The Tragedy of Macbeth (A24/Apple Original Films) – CCA, BAFTA, ASC
Bruno Delbonnel
4. West Side Story (20th Century Studios) – CCA
Janusz Kaminski
5. Nightmare Alley (Searchlight Pictures) – CCA, ASC, BAFTA
Dan Laustsen
COSTUME DESIGN
1. Cruella (Walt Disney) – CCA, BAFTA, CDG
Jenny Beavan
2. Nightmare Alley (Searchlight Pictures) – CCA, BAFTA, CDG
Luis Sequeira
3. West Side Story (20th Century Studios) – CCA, CDG
Paul Tazewell
4. Dune (Warner Bros/HBO Max) – CCA, BAFTA, CDG
Jacqueline West and Robert Morgan
5. Cyrano (MGM/UAR) – BAFTA, CDG
Massimo Cantini Parrini and Jacqueline Durran
PRODUCTION DESIGN
1. Nightmare Alley (Searchlight Pictures) – CCA, BAFTA, SDSA, ADG
Production Design: Tamara Deverell; Set Decoration: Shane Vieau
2. Dune (Warner Bros/HBO Max) – CCA, BAFTA, SDSA, ADG
Production Design: Patrice Vermette; Set Decoration: Zsuzsanna Sipos
3. West Side Story (20th Century Studios) – CCA, BAFTA, SDSA, ADG
Production Design: Adam Stockhausen; Set Decoration: Rena DeAngelo
4. The Tragedy of Macbeth (A24/Apple Original Films) – SDSA, ADG
Production Design: Stefan Dechant; Set Decoration: Nancy Haigh
5. The Power of the Dog (Netflix) – SDSA
Production Design: Grant Major; Set Decoration: Amber Richards
ORIGINAL SCORE
1. Dune (Warner Bros/HBO Max) – GG, CCA, HMMA (Sci-Fi), SCL, BAFTA
Hans Zimmer
2. The Power of the Dog (Netflix) – GG, CCA, HMMA, SCL, BAFTA
Jonny Greenwood
3. Don’t Look Up (Netflix) – CCA, HMMA, SCL, BAFTA
Nicholas Britell
4. Parallel Mothers (Sony Pictures Classics) – GG, HMMA (Foreign Language), SCL
Alberto Iglesias
5. Encanto (Walt Disney) – GG, SCL
Germaine Franco
ORIGINAL SONG
1. “No Time to Die” from No Time to Die (MGM/UAR) – GG, CCA, HMMA, SCL
Music and Lyric by Billie Eilish and Finneas O’Connell
2. “Dos Oruguitas” from Encanto (Walt Disney) – GG, CCA, HMMA
Music and Lyric by Lin-Manuel Miranda
3. “Be Alive” from “King Richard (Warner Bros/HBO Max) – GG, CCA, HMMA
Music and Lyric by DIXSON and Beyoncé Knowles-Carter
4. “Down to Joy” from Belfast (Focus Features) – GG, HMMA (Indie)
Music and Lyric by Van Morrison
5. “Somehow You Do” from Four Good Days (Vertical Entertainment) – HMMA (indie), SCL
Music and Lyric by Diane Warren
SOUND
1. Dune (Warner Bros/HBO Max) – BAFTA, MPSE (3x), CAS
Mac Ruth, Mark Mangini, Theo Green, Doug Hemphill and Ron Bartlett
2. No Time to Die (MGM/UAR) – BAFTA, MPSE (2x), CAS
Simon Hayes, Oliver Tarney, James Harrison, Paul Massey and Mark Taylor
3. West Side Story (20th Century Studios) – BAFTA, MPSE, CAS
Tod A. Maitland, Gary Rydstrom, Brian Chumney, Andy Nelson and Shawn Murphy
4. The Power of the Dog (Netflix) – MPSE, CAS
Richard Flynn, Robert Mackenzie and Tara Webb
5. Belfast (Focus Features) – MPSE
Denise Yarde, Simon Chase, James Mather, Niv Adiri
MAKEUP AND HAIRSTYLING
1. Dune (Warner Bros/HBO Max) – CCA, BAFTA, MUAH (2x)
Donald Mowat, Love Larson and Eva von Bahr
2. The Eyes of Tammy Faye (Searchlight Pictures) – CCA, BAFTA, MUAH (3x)
Linda Dowds, Stephanie Ingram and Justin Raleigh
3. Cruella (Walt Disney) – CCA, BAFTA, MUAH (2x)
Nadia Stacey, Naomi Donne and Julia Vernon
4. House of Gucci (MGM/UAR) – CCA, BAFTA, MUAH (3x)
Göran Lundström, Anna Carin Lock and Frederic Aspiras
5. Coming 2 America (Amazon Studios) – MUAH (3x)
Mike Marino, Stacey Morris and Carla Farmer
VISUAL EFFECTS
1. Dune (Warner Bros/HBO Max) – CCA, BAFTA, VES (6x)
Paul Lambert, Tristan Myles, Brian Connor and Gerd Nefzer
2. Shang-Chi and the Legend of the Ten Rings (Walt Disney/Marvel Studios) – CCA, Annie, VES (4x)
Christopher Townsend, Joe Farrell, Sean Noel Walker and Dan Oliver
3. Spider-Man: No Way Home (Sony Pictures/Marvel Studios) – VES (3x)
Kelly Port, Chris Waegner, Scott Edelstein and Dan Sudick
4. Free Guy (20th Century Studios) – BAFTA
Swen Gillberg, Bryan Grill, Nikos Kalaitzidis and Dan Sudick
5. No Time to Die (MGM/UAR) – BAFTA, VES
Charlie Noble, Joel Green, Jonathan Fawkner and Chris Corbould
ANIMATED FEATURE
1. Encanto (Walt Disney) – GG, CCA, Annie, BAFTA, PGA
Jared Bush, Byron Howard, Yvett Merino and Clark Spencer
2. Luca (Walt Disney/Pixar) – GG, CCA, Annie, BAFTA, PGA
Enrico Casarosa and Andrea Warren
3. The Mitchells vs the Machines (Netflix) – CCA, Annie, BAFTA, PGA
Mike Rianda, Phil Lord, Christopher Miller and Kurt Albrecht
4. Flee (NEON) – GG, CCA, Annie (Indie), EFA, BAFTA
Jonas Poher Rasmussen, Monica Hellström, Signe Byrge Sørensen and Charlotte De La Gournerie
5. Raya and the Last Dragon (Walt Disney) – GG, CCA, Annie, PGA
Don Hall, Carlos López Estrada, Osnat Shurer and Peter Del Vecho
DOCUMENTARY FEATURE
1. Summer of Soul (Searchlight Pictures/Hulu) – CEH, CCA, IDA, PGA, BAFTA
Ahmir “Questlove” Thompson, Joseph Patel, Robert Fyvolent and David Dinerstein
2. Flee (NEON) – CEH, CCA, DOC NYC, Gotham, IDA, EFA, PGA, BAFTA
Jonas Poher Rasmussen, Monica Hellström, Signe Byrge Sørensen and Charlotte De La Gournerie
3. Ascension (MTV Documentary Films) – CEH, CCA, DOC NYC, Gotham, IDA, PGA
Jessica Kingdon, Kira Simon-Kennedy and Nathan Truesdell
4. Attica (Showtime) – CCA
Stanley Nelson and Traci A. Curry
5. Writing with Fire (Music Box Films) – IDA, PGA
Rintu Thomas and Sushmit Ghosh
INTERNATIONAL FEATURE FILM
1. Drive My Car (Japan) – GG, CCA, BAFTA
2. The Worst Person in the World (Norway) – BAFTA
3. The Hand of God (Italy) – EFA, GG, CCA, BAFTA
4. Flee (Denmark) – CCA
5. Lunana: A Yak in the Classroom (Bhutan)
ANIMATED SHORT FILM
1. Robin Robin (Netflix) – BAFTA longlist
2. Bestia (Miyu Distribution)
3. The Windshield Wiper (The Animation Showcase)
4. Affairs of the Heart (The New Yorker)
5. Boxballet (Melnitsa Animation Studio)
DOCUMENTARY SHORT SUBJECT
1. Audible (Netflix)
2. The Queen of Basketball (The New York Times)
3. Three Songs for Benazir (Netflix)
4. When We Were Bullies (Locomotion Films)
5. Lead Me Home (Netflix)
LIVE ACTION SHORT
1. The Long Goodbye (WePresent)
2. The Dress (DOBRO/MIŁO/GŁOSNO)
3. Ala Kachuu – Take and Run (Salaud Morisset)
4. Please Hold (Scavenger Entertainment)
5. On My Mind (Benzoa Film)
He is a Rotten Tomatoes-approved critic, accredited by the Cannes Film Festival, Telluride Film Festival, Toronto International Film Festival and more, is a member of the International Cinephile Society (ICS), The Society of LGBTQ Entertainment Critics (GALECA), Hollywood Critics Association (HCA) and the International Press Academy. Among his many achieved goals with AwardsWatch, he has given a platform to underrepresented writers and critics and supplied them with access to film festivals and the industry and calls the Bay Area his home where he lives with his husband and son.
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