Frontrunner Friday Oscar Predictions: Globes, SAG, and BAFTA, oh my!

What a week, right? It wouldn’t be awards season without chaos and we got that from the Golden Globe winners, BAFTA longlists and Screen Actors Guild Awards nominations that were full of shocks and surprises, both good and bad, made some races clearer and others muddier than ever. But that’s what we like, right?

It all started with the beleaguered Golden Globes on Sunday, in a closed to the press, non-livestreamed event where they handed out their trophies to stars that weren’t there and spent the majority of the 90-minute ceremony lauding their own philanthropic work to avoid the scrutiny of a public relations nightmare of a year they had. Digging into the winners, the biggest surprise and the one that kept people buzzing was Nicole Kidman’s triumph in Best Performance by an Actress in a Motion Picture, Drama for her performance as Lucille Ball in Amazon Studios’ Being the Ricardos. While Kidman has yet to win a single critics’ award for her role (all of her competition has), the Globe win did what it has done for decades; marks the kickoff of the post-critics awards season and sets us firmly into ‘industry’ territory. By besting the overwhelming critics’ favorite Kristen Stewart, NYFCC winner Lady Gaga, Gotham winner Olivia Colman and triple regional critics’ winner Jessica Chastain, Kidman notched herself a default frontrunner status placement in a race that’s just starting. But, like every year, we see where and who was and remains a winner with the critics’ only and when the course changes once the industry starts chiming in.

Only one Golden Globe Best Actress (Drama) winner has missed out on a Best Actress Oscar nomination: Shirley MacLaine in 1988’s Madame Sousatzka. A big asterisk on this one though: that year saw the Globes’ infamous three-way tie in this category; MacLaine won alongside Jodie Foster in The Accused and Sigourney Weaver in Gorillas in the Mist. Weaver was Oscar-nominated and Foster won her first Academy Award.

Only one Golden Globe Best Actress (Musical or Comedy) winner whose film was nominated for Best Picture has missed out on a Best Actress Oscar nomination: Kathleen Turner for Prizzi’s Honor. What that means for winner Rachel Zegler, whose West Side Story is surely going to be nominated, remains to be seen.

What remains to be seen is if their winners will hold any actual weight this season. Without a televised event (one that’s consistently a huge ratings getter by today’s awards standards) or sound byte-able speeches or color commentary from a ribald host like Ricky Gervais, it’s presumable that their impact this season will be very small. Very few winners and studios chose to highlight their nominations and wins – save Disney and 20th Century Studios with West Side Story, who have barreled through with FYC ads touting them.

The BAFTA longlists came in at around 6am PT on Wednesday, with West Side Story and Don’t Look Up leading the way with 15 mentions apiece. What stood out the most from this year’s roster compared to last year (the first season of the longlist return and new voting system) was less the individual mentions and snubs but the overall lineup in the Best Film and acting categories. Compared to last year, which saw a very diverse lineup in those sections going to people of color and international representation, this season saw 59 of the 60 longlisted acting slots go to English-language performances. All 15 Best Film contenders were English-language only films despite a banner year of international films including Drive My Car, Parallel Mothers, A Hero, The Worst Person in the World, Flee, The Hand of God and so many more. It felt like a backlash to the backlash, as Christina Birro called it in our reaction podcast. In going over individual snubs, none stood out more than LAFCA and NSFC winner Penélope Cruz (Parallel Mothers) completely blanked from the leading actress longlist of 15. It was the biggest single shock of the list, and a truly devastating one. How the acting branch as a whole snubbed her was bad enough, but for the jury to not save her is baffling.

The SAG nominations came in as they did last year, on Instagram Live and with technical difficulties. Thankfully, they got them figured out rather quickly and Rosario Dawson and Vanessa Hudgens carried out the announcement without a hitch. That is, until some of the names were revealed, inspiring gasps, shock and awe across the internet as Ben Affleck (The Tender Bar) followed up his Golden Globe nomination with a SAG nod and Bradley Cooper, who didn’t receive either Golden Globe or Critics’ Choice mentions for his less than 10-minute supporting performance in Licorice Pizza found himself in. And who got left out as a result? The Belfast boys, both of them, Jamie Dornan and Ciarán Hinds. Pretty shocking, overall, although I had predicted Affleck to get in I felt secure that Dornan and hinds would repeat what they did with GG and CCA nods.

Peter Dinklage (Cyrano) took a big hit with his SAG snub and the less-predicted Javier Bardem (Being the Ricardos) making the cut instead. Both made the BAFTA longlist but Dinklage has to be nominated there, full stop, if he’s to earn an Oscar nomination and keep the 41-year streak of a first-time nominee in Best Actor going. For the moment, I’m counting on that happening.

But no part of the nomination reveal was more shocking than when they got to Outstanding Performance by a Female Actor in a Leading Role in a Motion Picture. As with most nomination announcements, they go in alphabetical order and if you have your predictions/contenders list in front of you (or, like me, in your head) then you know when a snub has happened even before it does. So was the case here. First was Jessica Chastain, expected. Then Olivia Colman, expected. Then Lady Gaga, expected but as a stage name they should have gone with the ‘L’ and not the ‘G’ and that set me into a mini-spiral as it meant (in my alphabetical world) that Nicole Kidman had been snubbed. But, we were only at three names. Then came Jennifer Hudson for “R-E-S-P-E-C-T,” as Dawson announced and it was like wait, what? Once Hudson was announced, in those split seconds, the realization came that with only one name left it was either Nicole Kidman or Kristen Stewart, one of them was out. Kidman’s name was announced and Stewart’s frontrunner status went from the top to the bottom as fast as you could catch your breath and here’s why: in 27 years of the Screen Actors Guild, no lead actress has ever won the Oscar without being SAG-nominated first. (Statistically, Kate Winslet, who was submitted at SAG and won in supporting for The Reader, still counts.) While we have an example in supporting actress with Regina King three years ago (SAG and BAFTA snubbed, still won the Oscar) there is no precedent for lead, and for a performance and film that has divided audiences – and clearly voters too – it’s all but over for Stewart as a potential winner and even a nomination now hangs in the balance and Spencer‘s poor showing with the BAFTA longlists only emphasizes that.

The other big surprise was left for the final announcement, Outstanding Performance by a Cast in a Motion Picture. With Lady Gaga and Jared Leto already earning nominations moments before, when it was revealed that House of Gucci was also a Cast nominee it added yet another wrench into the machine that has been trying to nail down the 10th spot for Best Picture. Is it going to be Nightmare Alley (AFI and NBR top 10, Critics Choice), The Tragedy of Macbeth (AFI and NBR top 10), Spider-Man: No Way Home (biggest box office of the year), No time to Die (the send off of Daniel Craig) or will it be one of the only non-sequel, non-animated and non-IP box offices successes of 2021? For today, it’s House of Gucci.

The next two weeks will be giving us an enormous amount of industry content (VFX society, Art Directors Guild, Sound Editors and more) with January 27 being the D-Day of awards season. On that date alone we’ll get nominations from the American Cinema Editors, Costume Designers Guild, Directors Guild, Producers Guild and Writers Guild, all coinciding with the first day of Oscar nomination voting. As a result, the next two weeks of predictions will solely be Frontrunner Fridays with final Oscar nomination predictions revealed the week of February 1. BAFTA nominations are out Thursday, February 3. Oscar nominations are Tuesday, February 8.

Buckle up, it’s about to get real.

Here are my Frontrunner Friday Oscar predictions in all 23 categories for January 14, 2022.

BEST PICTURE

1. Belfast (Focus Features) – GG, CCA, SAG, BAFTA longlist  
2. The Power of the Dog (Netflix) – GG, CCA, BAFTA longlist  
3. Dune (Warner Bros/HBO Max) – GG, CCA, BAFTA longlist  
4. West Side Story (20th Century Studios) – GG, CCA, BAFTA longlist  
5. King Richard (Warner Bros/HBO Max) – GG, CCA, SAG, BAFTA longlist  
6. Licorice Pizza (MGM/UAR) – GG, CCA, BAFTA longlist  
7. Don’t Look Up (Netflix) – GG, CCA, SAG, BAFTA longlist  
8. CODA (Apple Original Films) – GG, CCA, SAG, BAFTA longlist   
9. tick, tick…BOOM! (Netflix) – GG, CCA, BAFTA longlist  
10. House of Gucci (MGM/UAR) – SAG, BAFTA longlist    

BEST DIRECTOR

1. Jane Campion – The Power of the Dog (Netflix) – GG, CCA, BAFTA longlist   
2. Kenneth Branagh – Belfast (Focus Features) – GG, CCA, BAFTA longlist   
3. Denis Villeneuve – Dune (Warner Bros/HBO Max) – GG, CCA, BAFTA longlist  
4. Steven Spielberg – West Side Story (20th Century Studios) – GG, CCA, BAFTA longlist   
5. Ryusuke Hamaguchi – Drive My Car (Sideshow/Janus Films) – BAFTA longlist   

BEST ACTOR

1. Will Smith – King Richard (Warner Bros/HBO Max) – GG, CCA, SAG, BAFTA longlist  
2. Benedict Cumberbatch – The Power of the Dog (Netflix) – GG, CCA, SAG, BAFTA longlist  
3. Andrew Garfield – tick, tick…BOOM! (Netflix) – GG, CCA, SAG, BAFTA longlist  
4. Denzel Washington – The Tragedy of Macbeth (A24/Apple Original Films) – GG, CCA, SAG, BAFTA longlist 
5. Peter Dinklage – Cyrano (MGM/UAR) – GG, CCA, BAFTA longlist 

BEST ACTRESS

1. Nicole Kidman – Being the Ricardos (Amazon Studios) – GG, CCA, SAG, BAFTA longlist 
2. Olivia Colman – The Lost Daughter (Netflix) – GG, CCA, SAG, BAFTA longlist 
3. Lady Gaga – House of Gucci (MGM/UAR) – GG, CCA, SAG, BAFTA longlist 
4. Jessica Chastain – The Eyes of Tammy Faye (Searchlight Pictures) – GG, CCA, SAG, BAFTA longlist 
5. Kristen Stewart – Spencer (NEON) – GG, CCA, BAFTA longlist  

SUPPORTING ACTOR

1. Kodi Smit-McPhee – The Power of the Dog (Netflix) – GG, CCA, SAG, BAFTA longlist  
2. Ciarán Hinds – Belfast (Focus Features) – GG, CCA, SAG, BAFTA longlist  
3. Troy Kotsur – CODA (Apple Original Films) – GG, CCA, SAG, BAFTA longlist  
4. Jesse Plemons – The Power of the Dog (Netflix)
5. Bradley Cooper – Licorice Pizza (MGM/UAR) 

SUPPORTING ACTRESS

1. Ariana DeBose – West Side Story (20th Century Studios) – GG, CCA, SAG, BAFTA longlist   
2. Caitríona Balfe – Belfast (Focus Features) – GG, CCA, SAG, BAFTA longlist 
3. Aunjanue Ellis – King Richard (Warner Bros/HBO Max) – GG, CCA, BAFTA longlist 
4. Kirsten Dunst – The Power of the Dog (Netflix) – GG, CCA, SAG, BAFTA longlist  
5. Ruth Negga – Passing (Netflix) – GG, SAG, BAFTA longlist 

ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

1. The Power of the Dog – Jane Campion (Netflix) – GG, CCA, BAFTA longlist  
2. The Lost Daughter – Maggie Gyllenhaal (Netflix) – CCA, BAFTA longlist  
3. CODA – Siân Heder (Apple Original Films) – CCA, BAFTA longlist  
4. Drive My Car – Ryusuke Hamaguchi, Takamasa Oe (Sideshow/Janus Films) – BAFTA longlist   
5. West Side Story – Tony Kushner (20th Century Studios) – CCA, BAFTA longlist  

ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

1. Belfast – Kenneth Branagh (Focus Features) – GG, CCA, BAFTA longlist  
2. Licorice Pizza – Paul Thomas Anderson (MGM/UAR) – GG, CCA, BAFTA longlist  
3. Don’t Look Up – Adam McKay, David Sirota (Netflix) – GG, CCA, BAFTA longlist  
4. King Richard – Zach Baylin (Warner Bros/ HBO Max) – CCA, BAFTA longlist  
5. Being the Ricardos – Aaron Sorkin (Amazon Studios) – GG, BAFTA longlist  

FILM EDITING

1. Dune (Warner Bros/HBO Max) – CCA, BAFTA longlist  
2. Belfast (Focus Features) – CCA, BAFTA longlist  
3. The Power of the Dog (Netflix) – CCA, BAFTA longlist  
4. West Side Story (20th Century Studios) – CCA, BAFTA longlist  
5. Don’t Look Up (Netflix) – BAFTA longlist  

CINEMATOGRAPHY

1. The Power of the Dog (Netflix) – CCA, BAFTA longlist  
2. Dune (Warner Bros/HBO Max) – CCA, BAFTA longlist  
3. The Tragedy of Macbeth (A24/Apple Original Films) – CCA, BAFTA longlist  
4. Belfast (Focus Features) – CCA, BAFTA longlist  
5. West Side Story (20th Century Studios) – CCA, BAFTA longlist  

PRODUCTION DESIGN

1. Nightmare Alley (Searchlight Pictures) – CCA, BAFTA longlist
2. Dune (Warner Bros/HBO Max) – CCA, BAFTA longlist   
3. West Side Story (20th Century Studios) – CCA, BAFTA longlist  
4. The Tragedy of Macbeth (A24/Apple Original Films) – BAFTA longlist  
5. Belfast (Focus Features) – CCA, BAFTA longlist   

COSTUME DESIGN

1. Dune (Warner Bros/HBO Max) – CCA, BAFTA longlist   
2. Nightmare Alley (Searchlight Pictures) – CCA, BAFTA longlist  
3. Cruella (Walt Disney) – CCA, BAFTA longlist   
4. West Side Story (20th Century Studios) – CCA, BAFTA longlist   
5. House of Gucci (MGM/UAR) – BAFTA longlist  

MAKEUP AND HAIRSTYLING

1. Dune (Warner Bros/HBO Max) – CCA, BAFTA longlist   
2. The Eyes of Tammy Faye (Searchlight Pictures) – CCA, BAFTA longlist   
3. Cruella (Walt Disney) – CCA, BAFTA longlist   
4. House of Gucci (MGM/UAR) – CCA, BAFTA longlist   
5. Coming 2 America (Amazon Studios) – BAFTA longlist   

ORIGINAL SCORE

1. Dune (Warner Bros/HBO Max) – GG, CCA, SCL, BAFTA longlist   
2. The Power of the Dog (Netflix) – GG, CCA, HMMA, SCL, BAFTA longlist  
3. Encanto (Walt Disney) – GG, SCL
4. Don’t Look Up (Netflix) – CCA, HMMA, SCL, BAFTA longlist 
5. The French Dispatch (Searchlight Pictures) – GG, HMMA, SCL, BAFTA longlist

ORIGINAL SONG

1. “No Time to Die” from No Time to Die (MGM/UAR) – GG, CCA, HMMA, SCL 
2. “Be Alive” from “King Richard (Warner Bros/HBO Max) – GG, CCA 
3. “Dos Oruguitas” from Encanto (Walt Disney) – GG, CCA 
4. “Down to Joy” from Belfast (Focus Features) – GG 
5. “Just Look Up” from Don’t Look Up (Netflix) – CCA, HMMA, SCL

SOUND

1. Dune (Warner Bros/HBO Max) – BAFTA longlist   
2. No Time to Die (MGM/UAR) – BAFTA longlist   
3. Belfast (Focus Features) – BAFTA longlist  
4. West Side Story (20th Century Studios) – BAFTA longlist   
5. The Power of the Dog (Netflix) – BAFTA longlist  

VISUAL EFFECTS

1. Dune (Warner Bros/HBO Max) – CCA, BAFTA longlist   
2. Shang-Chi and the Legend of the Ten Rings (Walt Disney/Marvel Studios) – CCA, Annie, BAFTA longlist  
3. Godzilla vs. Kong (Warner Bros/HBO Max) 
4. Spider-Man: No Way Home (Sony Pictures/Marvel Studios)
5. Ghostbusters: Afterlife (Sony Pictures) – BAFTA longlist   

ANIMATED FEATURE

1. Encanto (Walt Disney) – GG, CCA, Annie, BAFTA longlist  
2. Flee (NEON) – GG, CCA, Annie (Indie), EFA, BAFTA longlist  
3. The Mitchells vs the Machines (Netflix) – CCA, Annie, BAFTA longlist  
4. Raya and the Last Dragon (Walt Disney) – GG, CCA, Annie, BAFTA longlist  
5. Luca (Walt Disney/Pixar) – GG, CCA, Annie, BAFTA longlist  

DOCUMENTARY FEATURE

1. Flee (NEON) – CEH, CCA, DOC NYC, Gotham, IDA, EFA, PGA, BAFTA longlist  
2. The Rescue (NatGeo) – CEH, CCA, DOC NYC, PGA, BAFTA longlist   
3. Ascension (MTV Documentary Films) – CEH, CCA, DOC NYC, Gotham, IDA, PGA 
4. Faya Dayi (Janus Films) – CEH, CCA, DOC NYC, Gotham, IDA 
5. Procession (Netflix) – CCA, DOC NYC

INTERNATIONAL FEATURE FILM

1. Drive My Car (Japan) – GG, CCA, BAFTA longlist   
2. The Hand of God (Italy) – EFA, GG, CCA, BAFTA longlist   
3. A Hero (Iran) – GG, CCA, BAFTA longlist   
4. Flee (Denmark) – CCA, BAFTA longlist   
5. Prayers for the Stolen (Mexico) 

ANIMATED SHORT FILM

1. Robin Robin (Netflix) – BAFTA longlist  
2. Us Again (Walt Disney)
3. The Musician (MTV Entertainment)
4. Bestia (Miyu Distribution)
5. Step Into the River (The New Yorker) 

DOCUMENTARY SHORT SUBJECT

1. Audible (Netflix)
2. Camp Confidential: America’s Secret Nazis (Netflix)
3. Sophie and the Baron (Disney Original Documentary)
4. The Queen of Basketball (The New York Times)
5. Terror Contagion (NEON) 

LIVE ACTION SHORT

1. The Long Goodbye (WePresent)
2. Ala Kachuu – Take and Run (Salaud Morisset) 
3. Under the Heavens (The New Yorker) 
4. When the Sun Sets (HBO) 
5. Censor of Dreams (Salaud Morisset)